Plant competition may intensify with climate warming, but whether this will occur equally for conspecific and heterospecific competition remains unknown. Competitive shifts have the potential to instigate community change because the relative strengths of conspecific and heterospecific negative density dependence mediate the stabilizing mechanisms underpinning species coexistence. We examined a mature temperate forest to assess both direct and indirect climate effects at multiple scales: individual species, interspecies relationships, and community stability mechanisms. Our coupled approach (1) quantified tree mortality risk dependence on the interactive effects of competition, climatic water deficit, snowpack, and soil moisture for 28,913 trees over 8 years (3149 mortalities), then (2) used a climate‐projection ensemble to forecast changes in conspecific and heterospecific competition from 2020 to 2100. We predict that projected climate warming will destabilize the foundational forest community by increasing the strength of heterospecific competition at a greater rate and to a greater degree than conspecific competition for four of five abundant tree species, particularly on dry microsites. Modeling showed that these findings were most pronounced after the year 2038, at which point snowpacks were projected to be too small to ameliorate the effects of drought on competitive interactions. Our finding that heterospecific competition is more sensitive than conspecific competition to climate warming may indicate the impending loss of ecosystem functioning. We join the growing body of work showing a predominance of indirect drought effects, yet coupled climate models still fail to consider how changing community dynamics may impact forest cover and, in turn, disrupt forest–climate carbon feedbacks. Ecosystems sharing characteristics with our example forest—those with low species richness and therefore a limited biodiversity insurance effect—may be similarly vulnerable to climate‐mediated destabilization. In such communities, increased heterospecific competition among even a small number of species can more easily destabilize communities without recourse from redundant species. This study of an overlooked but vital mechanism of community change can be adapted by research in a range of ecosystems to improve the understanding of climate change consequences.

Background: Drought, fire, and insects are increasing mortality of pine species throughout the northern temperate zone as climate change progresses. Tree survival may be enhanced by forest diversity, with growth rates often higher in mixed stands, but whether tree defenses are likewise aided remains in question. We tested how forest diversity-productivity patterns relate to growth and defense over three centuries of climate change, competition, wildfire, and bark beetle attack. We used detailed census data from a fully mapped 25.6-ha forest dynamics plot in California, USA to conduct a spatially explicit, dendroecological assessment of large-diameter Pinus lambertiana survival following fire reintroduction. Our structural equation models investigated direct and indirect pathways by which growth, defense, and forest composition together mediated pine resistance and resilience. Results: In the historical era of frequent, mixed-severity fire (pre-1900), trees that were ultimately resistant or susceptible to the post-fire bark beetle epidemic all showed similar growth and defenses, as measured by axial resin duct traits. During the era of fire exclusion (1901–2012), however, susceptible trees had slower growth. Following fire re-entry in 2013, both growth and defense declined precipitously for susceptible trees, resulting in fatal bark beetle attack. Spatial analysis showed that monodominant crowding by shade-tolerant competitors contributed to the long-term stress that prevented susceptible trees from recuperating defenses quickly following fire re-entry. For beetle-resistant trees, however, we found positive feedbacks between diversity, growth, and survival: trees in species-rich communities had higher growth rates pre-fire, which promoted a rapid recuperation of defenses following fire that helped trees resist bark beetle attack. Overall, this associational resistance outweighed associational susceptibility (+8.6% vs. −6.4% change in individual tree survival odds), suggesting a relaxation effect that ultimately allowed 58% of large pines to survive. Conclusions: Though climate change threatens forest biodiversity, biodiversity is key to forest climate adaptation in return. Our findings demonstrate centennial-scale feedbacks by which forest diversity increases pine resistance and resilience to climate-amplified disturbances. The spatially explicit, dendroecological framework provides new insights into diversity-productivity theory, while also informing climate-adaptive forest management by identifying thresholds of tree density and richness that maximize large pine survival.

Mycorrhizal mutualisms are nearly ubiquitous across plant communities. Yet, it is still unknown whether facilitation among plants arises primarily from these mycorrhizal networks or from physical and ecological attributes of plants themselves. Here, we tested the relative contributions of mycorrhizae and plants to both positive and negative biotic interactions to determine whether plant–soil feedbacks with mycorrhizae neutralize competition and enemies within multitrophic forest community networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear modeling to examine mycorrhizal‐guild‐specific and mortality‐cause‐specific woody plant survival compiled from a spatially and temporally explicit data set comprising 101,096 woody plants from three mixed‐conifer forests across western North America. We found positive plant–soil feedbacks for large‐diameter trees: species‐rich woody plant communities indirectly promoted large tree survival when connected via mycorrhizal networks. Shared mycorrhizae primarily counterbalanced apparent competition mediated by tree enemies (e.g., bark beetles, soil pathogens) rather than diffuse competition between plants. We did not find the same survival benefits for small trees or shrubs. Our findings suggest that lower large‐diameter tree mortality susceptibility in species‐rich temperate forests resulted from greater access to shared mycorrhizal networks. The interrelated importance of aboveground and belowground biodiversity to large tree survival may be critical for counteracting increasing pathogen, bark beetle, and density threats.