The aim of the paper is to verify the existence of short- and long-term relationships between the strength of a trend and the volume in bullish and bearish cryptocurrency markets. We applied the vector error correction model to bitcoin daily data from 14.01.2015 to 22.12.2019. Based on the prices and following Wilder’s algorithm, the average directional movement index was calculated, and upward and downward trend periods were determined. No long-term relationship was found to exist between the strength of a trend and the volume in both bearish and bullish markets. Hence, trends do not react to volume changes. However, a long-term relationship exists between volume and trend—but only for the downward trend—with an adjustment speed of 88%. In the short-term, a statistically significant but very weak dependency is revealed; hence, the conclusion that trend strength is insensitive to volume changes can be reached.
The crypto exchanges operate primarily on the internet, where the speed of information spreading is significant. Therefore, it is expected that there should be no significant differences among the individual exchanges concerning the same asset being traded. Prices should quickly reach comparable values on all stock exchanges, and they should return to equilibrium in a relative time frame. Hence, the investors, while making decisions on the selection of a cryptocurrency market, should be guided primarily by the exchange security considerations, its flexibility, availability of a product offer, and costs of order processing. The work aims to check whether virtual currency exchanges differ from each other in the context of directional movement, both in an upward and downward trend. To achieve the objective of the paper, we used Directional Movement Index, supported by the Directional Indicators, to compare the distribution of the strength of the directional movement across three different cryptocurrency exchanges (Bitstamp, Coinbase, Kraken) within the up and the downward price movement phase. The comparison is made based on the results of the non-parametrical tests such as Wilcoxon test, Hodges Lehmann test, Ansari-Bradley test, and Conover test. The results show that theoretically, the choice of a cryptocurrency exchange in an upward trend will cause no significant difference for an investor and its strategy. However, the choice of a stock exchange in a downward trend may have a substantial impact on the rates of return.
1 November 2016 in Journal of International Studies