Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 ± 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5–10 year-old group (0.747 ± 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5–10 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (E. faecium) infection is associated with higher mortality rates. Previous studies have emphasized the importance of innate immune cells and signalling pathways in clearing E. faecium, but a comprehensive analysis of host-pathogen interactions is lacking. Here, we investigated the interplay of host and E. faecium in a murine model of septic peritonitis. Following injection with a sublethal dose, we observed significantly increased murine sepsis score and histological score, decreased weight and bacterial burden, neutrophils and macrophages infiltration, and comprehensive activation of cytokine-mediated signalling pathway. In mice receiving a lethal dose, hypothermia significantly improved survival, reduced bacterial burden, cytokines, and CD86 expression of MHC-II⁺ recruited macrophages compared to the normothermia group. A mathematical model constructed by observational data from 80 animals, recapitulated the host-pathogen interplay, and further verified the benefits of hypothermia. These findings indicate that E. faecium triggers a severe activation of cytokine-mediated signalling pathway, and hypothermia can improve outcomes by reducing bacterial burden and inflammation.

Although COVID-19 has been controlled in China, the risk of invasion of imported cases remains. We aimed to characterize the impact of the number of imported cases and the implementation of first-level emergency response (FLER) policy. A SCQIHR switching model was constructed and verified by the complete phased data of COVID-19 in Chongqing in 2020. Then it was used to investigate the impact of the number of imported cases and the timing of FLER. Lastly, it was evaluated by three actual scenarios in Chongqing in 2021. The proposed model can fit the multidimensional time series well. After the implementation of FLER, the mean effective reproduction number, contact rate and misdetection rate were decreased significantly, but the quarantine rate for close contacts and isolation rate for non-hospitalized infectious cases were increased significantly. The peaks of quarantined close contacts and hospitalized infectious cases increased linearly with the increase of the number of imported cases and the lag of FLER time, which was verified by three actual scenarios in Chongqing in 2021. These findings can provide guidance for local public health policy-making and allocation of medical resources, reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the local population.