Due to the inherent non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of original streamflow and the complicated relationship between multi-scale predictors and streamflow, accurate and reliable monthly streamflow forecasting is quite difficult. In this paper, a multi-scale-variables-driven streamflow forecasting (MVDSF) framework was proposed to improve the runoff forecasting accuracy and provide more information for decision-making. This framework was realized by integrating random forest (RF) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) with multi-scale variables (hydrometeorological and climate predictors) as inputs and is referred to as RF-GPR-MV. To validate the effectiveness and superiority of the RF-GPR-MV model, it was implemented for multi-step-ahead monthly streamflow forecasts with horizons of 1 to 12 months for two key hydrological stations in the Jinsha River basin, Southwest China. Other MVDSF models based on the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and GPR with/without multi-scale variables or the PCC and a backpropagation neural network (BP) or general regression neural network (GRNN), with only previous streamflow and precipitation, namely, PCC-GPR-MV, PCC-GPR-QP, PCC-BP-QP, and PCC-GRNN-QP, respectively, were selected as benchmarks. Experimental results indicated that the proposed model was superior to the other benchmark models in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for almost all forecasting scenarios, especially for forecasting with longer lead times. Additionally, the results also confirmed that the addition of large-scale climate and circulation factors was beneficial for promoting the streamflow forecasting ability, with an average contribution rate of about 15%. The RF in the MVDSF framework improved the forecasting performance, with an average contribution rate of about 25%. This improvement was more pronounced when the lead time exceeded 3 months. Moreover, the proposed model could also provide prediction intervals (PIs) to characterize forecast uncertainty, as supplementary information to further help decision makers in relevant departments to avoid risks in water resources management.

Drought is a natural extreme climate event which occurs in most parts of the world. Northeastern China is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also a typical vulnerable climate zone. To understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought over northeastern China, we first assessed the trends of precipitation and temperature. Drought events were then characterized by Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index over various temporal scales. The Trend Free Prewhitening Mann–Kendall test and distinct empirical orthogonal function, were used to investigate the trends and spatio-temporal patterns of droughts. The results indicate precipitation increasing trends are mostly detected in Heilongjiang and Jinling provinces, however, the majority of the trends are insignificant. Temperature increasing trends are detected over the entire northeastern China and most of them are significant. Decreasing drought trends are observed in Heilongjiang province and some bordering area in Jilin province, whereas increasing trends are noticed in Liaoning province and some bordering area in Jilin province. Two main sub-regions of drought variability—the Liaohe River Plain and the Second Songhua River basin (LS region), and the Songnen Plain and the Lesser Hinggan Mountains (SL region) are identified, and the detected droughts for the two sub-regions correspond well with recorded drought loss. The results will be beneficial for regional water resource management and planning, agriculture production, and ecosystem protection in northeastern China.

In recent years, growing peak pressure is posing a huge challenge for the operators of electrical power systems. As the most important clean renewable energy, hydropower is often advised as a response to the peak loads in China. Thus, a novel hybrid sine cosine algorithm (HSCA) is proposed to deal with the complex peak operation problem of cascade hydropower reservoirs. In HSCA, the elite-guide evolution strategy is embedded into the standard sine cosine algorithm to improve the convergence rate of the swarm. The Gaussian local search strategy is used to increase the diversity of the population. The random mutation operator is adopted to enhance the search capability of the individuals in the evolutionary process. The proposed method is applied to solve the complex peak operation problem of two hydropower systems. The simulations indicate that in different cases, HSCA can generate the scheduling results with higher quality than several benchmark methods. Hence, this paper provides a feasible method for the complex peak operation problem of cascade hydropower reservoirs.

Medium-term hydrological streamflow forecasting can guide water dispatching departments to arrange the discharge and output plan of hydropower stations in advance, which is of great significance for improving the utilization of hydropower energy and has been a research hotspot in the field of hydrology. However, the distribution of water resources is uneven in time and space. It is important to predict streamflow in advance for the rational use of water resources. In this study, a Bayesian model average integrated prediction method is proposed, which combines artificial intelligence algorithms, including long-and short-term memory neural network (LSTM), gate recurrent unit neural network (GRU), recurrent neural network (RNN), back propagation (BP) neural network, multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest regression (RFR), AdaBoost regression (ABR) and support vector regression (SVR). In particular, the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the model. The practical application of the proposed model in the ten-day scale inflow prediction of the Three Gorges Reservoir shows that the proposed model has good prediction performance; the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency NSE is 0.876, and the correlation coefficient r is 0.936, which proves the accuracy of the model.

The impact of drought on ecosystems has become increasingly prominent. This study used the MODIS remote-sensing vegetation index and standardized precipitation index to quantify vegetation coverage status and meteorological drought level. Using the copula method, the joint distribution of the drought index and related vegetation cover variables was simulated for the first time. The conditional distribution of vegetation biomass was deduced, and the multidimensional response between vegetation biomass and drought was explored to understand the possible vegetation loss under different drought severity conditions. The Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region is the source place of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River, where the ecosystem is characterized by innate vulnerability. Using this region as a case study, the results show that the spatiotemporal evolution of drought and vegetation in the TRH region has apparent regional heterogeneity. The vegetation cover in the eastern region is significantly better than that in the northwestern region, while the vegetation growth trend in the northwestern region is stronger than that in the southeastern region. It is feasible to build a vegetation-drought multidimensional response model based on the copula method. In 92.5% of the TRH region, vegetation cover was significantly affected by the severity of the drought. The impact on the growth of vegetation caused by persistent drought events was higher than that of short-term but high-intensity drought. The vegetation in the TRH area has a certain degree of drought resistance. This study provides outstanding theoretical support and reference for the protection of the TRH basin ecosystem.

In order to allocate the raw water of the complex water supply system in Shenzhen reasonably, this paper studied the complex network relationship of this large-scale urban water supply system, which consists of 46 reservoirs, 67 waterworks, 2 external diversion water sources, 14 pumping stations and 9 gates, and described each component of the system with the concepts of point, line and plane. Using the topological analysis technology and graph theory, a generalized model of the network topological structure of the urban water allocation system was established. On this basis, combined with the water demand prediction and allocation model of waterworks, a water resources allocation model was established, aiming at satisfying the guaranteed rate of the water supply. The decomposition and coordination principle of the large-scale system and the dynamic simulation technology of the supply-demand balance were adopted to solve the model. The forward calculation mode of controlling waterworks and pumps, and the reverse calculation mode of controlling reservoirs and waterworks were designed in solving the model, and a double-layer feedback mechanism was formed, which took the reverse calculation mode as outer feedback and the reservoir water level constraint or pipeline capacity constraint as inner feedback. Through the verification calculation of the case study, it was found that the proposed model can deal well with the raw water allocation of a large-scale complex water supply system, which had an important application value and a practical significance.