This study addresses the significant issue of rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Lahore District, which is critical for supporting ecological management and sustainable land-use planning. Understanding these changes is crucial for mitigating adverse environmental impacts and promoting sustainable development. The main goal is to evaluate historical LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 and forecast future trends for 2034 and 2044 utilizing the CA-Markov hybrid model combined with GIS methodologies. Landsat images from various sensors (TM, OLI) were employed for supervised classification, attaining high accuracy (> 90%). Historical LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 were analyzed, revealing significant transformations in Lahore. The build-up area expanded by 359.8 km², indicating rapid urbanization, while vegetation cover decreased by 198.7 km² and barren lands by 158.5 km². Water bodies remained relatively stable during this period. Future LULC trends were projected for 2034 and 2044 using the CA-Markov hybrid model (CA-MHM), which achieved a high prediction accuracy with a kappa coefficient of 0.92. The research indicated significant urban growth at the expense of vegetation and barren land. Future forecasts suggest ongoing urbanization, underscoring the necessity for sustainable land management techniques. This research is a significant framework for urban planners, providing insights that combine development with ecological conservation. The results highlight the necessity of incorporating predictive models into urban policy to promote sustainable development and environmental preservation in quickly changing areas such as Lahore.

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in Lahore and Faisalabad have intensified air pollution issues, influencing nitrogen dioxide (NO ₂ ) concentrations, land surface temperature (LST), and vegetation. The study aims to comprehensively assess changes in NO ₂ , LST, and vegetation induced by industrialization, focusing on seasonal variations from 2019 to 2022. The study evaluates NO ₂ concentrations vegetation health using indices normalized difference vegetation index, enhanced vegetation index, atmospherically resistant vegetation index, and LST variations. The analysis reveals a notable increase in NO ₂ during both summer and winter, with approximately 0.021 (×10 ³ mol/m ² ) and 0.03 (×10 ³ mol/m ² ) rises observed in Lahore. In comparison, Faisalabad experienced more modest increases of around 0.0034 (×10 ³ mol/m ² ) and 0.007 (×10 ³ mol/m ² ) in the respective seasons. Simultaneously, vegetation indices decline in both cities, indicating substantial vegetation health deterioration. Moreover, a notable upward trend in LST occurred, with Lahore experiencing an increase of approximately 1.59 °C in summer and 0.92 °C in winter. Faisalabad also showed rises of around 1.64 and 0.54 °C in the corresponding seasons. Pearson correlation analysis highlights a robust negative correlation between NO ₂ and vegetation indices, underlining the impact of declining vegetation on air quality. A positive correlation between NO ₂ and LST indicates the interconnected nature of rising temperatures and air pollution. The findings emphasize the need for environmental regulations in Lahore and Faisalabad. Addressing rising NO ₂ levels and temperatures is critical for policymakers and urban planners. These insights contribute to the sustainable development goal 11, fostering strategies for sustainable cities and communities to combat pressing environmental challenges in these urban areas.

Rapid urbanization in Lahore, Pakistan, has led to significant ecological and thermal challenges, particularly the intensification of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects and increased thermal stress as measured by the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI). This study employs a multi-temporal evaluation of Landsat satellite imagery and GIS-based analysis to investigate the Spatio-temporal trends in land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes from 1994 to 2024. We detected substantial changes in urban growth, vegetation cover, and barren areas using supervised classification (Random Forest) methods and remote sensing indices such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index), NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-up Index), and NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index). The classification models demonstrated high accuracy, with combined values ranging from 96.7% to 98.4%. Our results indicate a significant increase in metropolitan regions, from 608.66 km² (32.43%) in 1994 to 968.50 km² (51.6%) in 2024. This urban expansion correlates with rising land surface temperatures (LST), exacerbating UHI effects. The UTFVI analysis reveals a progressive rise in heat stress from 1994 to 2024. In 1994, most areas ranged from “Good” (0.020), indicating severe urban heat intensification, particularly in central and southern regions providing evidence of a significant increase in urban heat, especially in the center and southern areas of the city. These findings underscore the critical need for sustainable land management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of Lahore's rapid urbanization on the environment. This study comprehensively explains unplanned urban growth's ecological and climatic consequences. The importance of balanced development in protecting natural ecosystems and enhancing urban resilience is highlighted, offering valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers.