The distribution of the soil aggregate structure and its associated organic carbon along the elevation gradient remains unclear, but it may be crucial for the stabilization of soil carbon pools in mountainous forests. In this study, we first assessed the changes in aggregate-associated organic carbon and the aggregate structure in the 0–20 cm soil layers of an alpine forest in the Sygera Mountains along an elevation gradient (3000–4200 m). We then conducted an incubation experiment to explore the relationship between aggregates and soil organic carbon mineralization, using the Pearson correlation analysis and RDA. The results indicated that macroaggregates and microaggregates were the predominant forms of aggregates in the Sygera Mountains, contributing significantly to organic carbon (33.57% and 38.29%, respectively). As the elevation increased, the stability of aggregates in mid and high elevations (3600–4200 m) was significantly higher than that in low elevations (3000–3300 m). Aggregate stability and macroaggregate-associated organic carbon were positively correlated with the total soil organic carbon, suggesting that organic carbon is essential for promoting soil aggregation in forest soils. With the rising temperatures, the rate of soil mineralization at different elevation sites significantly increased, and the Q₁₀ values were greater at low elevations than at mid and high elevations. This implied that soil carbon pools at low elevations were more sensitive to climate warming. The significant negative correlation between microaggregate-associated organic carbon and soil mineralization suggested that microaggregates contribute to the stabilization of soil carbon pools. Given that the link between aggregates and soil mineralization strengthened with increasing temperatures, the role of aggregates in the stabilization of forest soil carbon pools should be emphasized under a warming trend.

Global climate change exerts great effects on plant distributions. However, the response of Prunus mira Koehne, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors affecting the distribution of P. mira in the context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict suitable habitats for P. mira. Our study indicated that the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, and warming can facilitate the growth of P. mira. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from −2.6 °C to 2.7 °C, it is most conducive to the growth of P. mira. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for P. mira is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of P. mira. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of P. mira, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species.

Understanding spatiotemporal variation in soil CO₂ flux (FCO₂) along elevational gradients is essential for predicting carbon–climate feedback in alpine ecosystems. However, how temperature- and moisture-related factors jointly regulate daily-scale FCO₂ and how their contributions vary with elevation remain unclear, particularly in the Sejila Mountains (Southeastern Tibetan Plateau). We conducted continuous in situ measurements of daily-scale FCO₂, air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), soil temperature (ST, 0–10 cm), and volumetric soil water content (SW) across five elevational bands (3000–4200 m) in 2024–2025. Across both years, FCO₂ showed a unimodal seasonal cycle and a robust nonmonotonic spatial pattern, with the highest efflux at 3000 and 4200 m and peak rates exceeding 5.0 µmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹. Cumulative carbon loss at 4200 m (909.90 g C m⁻²) exceeded that at mid-elevation sites. Linear mixed-effects models identified Ta as the most consistent positive predictor; the ST × SW interaction was not significant, indicating that temperature and moisture effects are largely additive at the daily scale. Piecewise regression revealed nonlinear SW thresholds (θ) in the FCO₂ response, with θ varying nonmonotonically with elevation. Multiple linear regression further showed that thermal predictors (Ta, ST) explained substantially more variance than moisture predictors (RH, SW), and the relative importance of thermal drivers increased with elevation. These results challenge the common expectation of a monotonic decline in soil respiration with elevation and suggest that, when SW remains above critical thresholds, warming may amplify soil carbon losses at high elevations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Against the backdrop of ongoing climate change, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, a region highly sensitive to climatic variation, exhibits intricate spatiotemporal patterns in reference crop evapotranspiration (ET_O), with significant implications for regional water-resource planning. This study selected four agro-climatic zones across the plateau region (TSA, TSH, TAZ, and WCH). Long-term daily observations from 28 meteorological stations were used to estimate ET_O via the FAO 56 Penman–Monteith equation. This extensive dataset enabled robust trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test, alongside a cloud-model framework, and analyses of sensitivity and contributions to evaluate ET_O’s spatiotemporal evolution, its distributional uncertainty, and the underlying drivers. Results reveal pronounced regional heterogeneity in the interannual variability of ET_O. Annual ET_O declined in TSH and TSA (trend rates of −1.12 and −6.58 mm·10a⁻¹, respectively) and increased in TAZ and WCH (15.76 and 10.74 mm·10a⁻¹, respectively). At monthly and seasonal timescales, ET_O exhibited an unimodal pattern, with the greatest stability in winter and spring and lower stability in summer and autumn. The cloud-model parameter He indicates that ET_O stability is greatest in TSH and weakest in WCH, with He values of 7.15 and 12.29 mm, respectively. Contribution-rate analyses identify T_max and T_mean as the principal determinants of rising ET_O across all study zones, reflecting the largest individual contributions. Temperature-related factors together account for the majority of ET_O variability across the regions, with their absolute contributions ranging from 5.61% to 8.63%, well above those of aerodynamic factors (0.62–1.78%). Stability assessments indicate that ET_O is generally more unstable than its meteorological drivers, with substantial regional disparities, implying that ET_O evolution cannot be explained by a single controlling factor. Overall, the study characterizes the uncertainty in ET_O variations under complex terrain, highlights the value of the cloud model for refined hydrological assessments, and provides a scientific basis for adaptive agricultural water-resource management in the region.

Accurately assessing and predicting vegetation dynamics is of great significance for evaluating regional hydrological and ecological environments. This study focuses on the climate-sensitive Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), aiming to reveal the spatiotemporal patterns, underlying driving mechanisms, and future trends of vegetation dynamics. The historical turning points of greening trends were identified using the running slope difference method, and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to analyze the key driving factors. An Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) prediction model was constructed and validated, and then coupled with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble data to project seasonal vegetation changes under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Vegetation on the QTP showed an overall greening trend with significant spatial heterogeneity. Approximately 47.25% of the area exhibited no trend shift (NS), while 29.42% experienced a shift from greening to browning (GB), with most shifts occurring between 1990 and 2010. (2) Soil moisture and precipitation were the dominant driving factors, with contributions significantly higher than those of temperature, wind speed, and other variables, and they exhibited nonlinear interactive effects with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). (3) In the future, vegetation is projected to show an overall increasing trend, with stronger responses in spring and autumn. The regional average rate of change is highest in spring, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (17.8% for 2030–2060 and 26.4% for 2061–2100); in autumn, although the regional average rate of change is small, the internal spatial variability is significant. The humid regions in the eastern and southeastern parts of the QTP demonstrated more active greening across all seasons except winter, and high-emission scenarios are expected to exacerbate regional and seasonal differences. This study systematically reveals the adaptive dynamics and future scenarios of vegetation dynamics on the QTP, providing scientific support for the adaptation of alpine ecosystems to global change and the management of regional ecological security barriers.