Global climate change exerts great effects on plant distributions. However, the response of Prunus mira Koehne, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors affecting the distribution of P. mira in the context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict suitable habitats for P. mira. Our study indicated that the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, and warming can facilitate the growth of P. mira. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from −2.6 °C to 2.7 °C, it is most conducive to the growth of P. mira. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for P. mira is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of P. mira. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of P. mira, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species.