Accurate yield information empowers farmers to adapt, their governments to adopt timely agricultural and food policy interventions, and the markets they supply to prepare for production shifts. Unfortunately, the most representative yield data in the US, provided by the US Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) Surveys, are spatiotemporally patchy and inconsistent. This paper builds a more complete data product by examining the spatiotemporal efficacy of random forests (RF) in predicting county-level yields of corn—the most widely cultivated crop in the US. To meet our objective, we compare RF cross-validated prediction accuracy using several combinations of explanatory variables. We also utilize variable importance measures and partial dependence plots to compare and contextualize how key variables interact with corn yield. Results suggest that RF predicts US corn yields well using a relatively small subset of climate variables along with year and geographical location (RMSE = 17.1 bushels/acre (1.2 tons/hectare)). Of note is the insensitivity of RF prediction accuracy when removing variables traditionally thought to be predictive of yield or variables flagged as important by RF variable importance measures. Understanding what variables are needed to accurately predict corn yields provides a template for applying machine learning approaches to estimate county-level yields for other US crops.

Water systems in the American West are under mounting stress as climate change accelerates aridification and tensions grow over competing demands for scarce water resources. As socio‐ecological pressures compound, siloed thinking and governance undermine the development of innovative water management approaches. A new generation of water practitioners is rising to meet this challenge. But working within this complexity requires systems understanding, transdisciplinary expertise, cultural competence, and collaborative leadership. As a multidisciplinary group of graduate students and field program leaders working on water in the West, we argue that experiential learning offers a powerful pathway to prepare future water practitioners with the skills they need to address wicked water problems. In this Commentary we present a set of best practices, grounded in our shared experiential learning experience, to guide the design of inclusive and transformative field opportunities for students engaging with water challenges across diverse geographic contexts: (1) dedicated time to orient as a team; (2) circular mentorship that generates radial impacts; (3) place‐based site visits; and (4) secure funding. We offer a case study in the Colorado River Basin to demonstrate how the application of these design principles can support future experiential learning initiatives that cultivate water practitioners equipped to work across institutional, cultural, and hydrologic boundaries.

Irrigation organizations (IOs) in the arid US West manage water supply, own water rights, and deliver water shares to their users. In delivering most of the water used for irrigated agriculture, the influence of the water managers who run them on water futures cannot be overstated. Yet, the perspectives of both water managers and IOs regarding nimble strategies for water management under scarcity remain understudied. One water management strategy, water banking, was introduced in Utah in 2020, but formal uptake has been slow. Using data collected from individual agricultural water managers within IOs in Utah, we show that water managers are familiar with water markets, but that they do not believe their IOs are interested in increasing the number they engage in. Further, we find that most IOs would have little to no water to place in a future water bank, and that over half of the water managers surveyed believe none of their shareholders would be interested in participating. Finally, government meddling, fear of forfeiture, and economic impacts are all barriers to banking, but water infrastructure improvements might act as bridges to finding more “wet” water for banking and other transactions. This study helps clarify whether and how water markets might be integrated into a more secure water future for Utah and the arid West. While water banking remains one tool for flexible and adaptive water management, we underscore that barriers to banking may limit its uptake in Utah.