Research on recruitment variability has gained momentum in the last years, undoubtedly due to the many unknowns related to climate change impacts. Knowledge about recruitment—the process of small, young fish transitioning to an older, larger life stage—timing and success is especially important for commercial fish species, as it allows predicting the availability of fish and adapting fishing practices for its sustainable exploitation. Predicting tools for determining the combined effect of temperature rise and food quality and quantity reduction (two expected outcomes of climate change) on early-life history traits of fish larvae are valuable for anticipating and adjusting fishing pressure and policy. Here we use a previously published and validated dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for the common sole (Solea solea) and adapt and use the same DEB model for the Senegalese sole (S. senegalensis) to predict the effects of temperature and food availability on Solea spp. early life-history traits. We create seven simulation scenarios, recreating RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and including a reduction in food availability. Our results show that temperature and food availability both affect the age at metamorphosis, which is advanced in all scenarios that include a temperature rise and delayed when food is limited. Age at puberty was also affected by the temperature increase but portrayed a more complex response that is dependent on the spawning (batch) period. We discuss the implications of our results in a climate change context.

Blue carbon ecosystems, particularly mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, play a crucial role in climate regulation by capturing and storing huge stocks of carbon. Together with supporting fisheries production, protecting shorelines from erosion, and supplying timber and non-timber products to communities, blue carbon ecosystems offer investment opportunities through carbon markets, thus supporting climate change mitigation and sustainable livelihoods. The current study assessed above- and below-ground biomass, sediment carbon, and the capacity of the blue carbon ecosystems in Kwale and Lamu Counties, Kenya, to capture and store carbon. This was followed by mapping of hotspot areas of degradation and the identification of investment opportunities in blue carbon credits. Carbon densities in mangroves were estimated at 560.23 Mg C ha⁻¹ in Lamu and 526.34 Mg C ha⁻¹ in Kwale, with sediments accounting for more than 70% of the stored carbon. In seagrass ecosystems, carbon densities measured 171.65 Mg C ha⁻¹ in Lamu and 220.29 Mg C ha⁻¹ in Kwale, values that surpass the national average but are consistent with global figures. Mangrove cover is declining at 0.49% yr⁻¹ in Kwale and 0.16% yr⁻¹ in Lamu, while seagrass losses in Lamu are 0.67% yr⁻¹, with a 0.34% yr⁻¹ increase in Kwale. Under a business-as-usual scenario, mangrove loss over 30 years will result in emissions of 4.43 million tCO₂e in Kwale and 18.96 million tCO₂e in Lamu. Effective interventions could enhance carbon sequestration from 0.12 to 3.86 million tCO₂e in Kwale and 0.62 to 19.52 million tCO₂e in Lamu. At the same period, seagrass losses in Lamu would emit 5.21 million tCO₂e. With a conservative carbon price of 20 USD per tCO₂e, projected annual revenues from mangrove carbon credits amount to USD 3.59 million in both Lamu and Kwale, and USD 216,040 for seagrass carbon credits in Lamu. These findings highlight the substantial climate and financial benefits of investing in the restoration and protection of the two ecosystems.

Blue carbon ecosystems, particularly mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, play a crucial role in climate regulation by capturing and storing huge stocks of carbon. Together with serving as habitat for fish and other wildlife, protecting shoreline from erosion, as well as providing harvestable wood and non-wood resources to society, blue carbon ecosystems offer investment opportunities through carbon markets, thus supporting climate change mitigation and sustainable livelihoods. The current study assessed above- and below-ground biomass, sediment carbon stocks, and sequestration potential of blue carbon ecosystems in Lamu and Kwale counties, Kenya; using 2020 as the baseline year. This was followed by mapping of hotspot areas of degradation and the identification of investment opportunities in blue carbon credits. Carbon densities in mangroves of Lamu and Kwale were estimated at 560.23 Mg C ha⁻¹ and 526.34 Mg C ha⁻¹, respectively, with over 70% stored in sediments. Seagrass carbon densities in Lamu (171.65 Mg C ha⁻¹) and Kwale (220.29 Mg C ha⁻¹) exceed the national average but align with global estimates. Mangrove cover is declining at 0.49% yr⁻¹ in Kwale and 0.16% yr⁻¹ in Lamu, while seagrass loss in Lamu is 0.67% yr⁻¹, with a 0.34% yr⁻¹ increase in Kwale. Under a business-as-usual scenario, mangrove loss over 30 years will result in emissions of 4.43 million tCO₂e in Kwale and 18.96 million tCO₂e in Lamu. Effective interventions could enhance sequestration from 0.12 to 3.86 million tCO₂e in Kwale and 0.62 to 19.52 million tCO₂e in Lamu. Seagrass loss in Lamu could emit 5.21 million tCO₂e. With a carbon price of $20 per tCO₂e, projected annual revenues from carbon credits amount to $3.59 million in Lamu and $216,040 in Kwale. These findings highlight the substantial climate and financial benefits of investing in blue carbon ecosystem conservation and restoration.