A mechanistic model based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was developed to predict the combined effects of ocean warming, acidification and decreased food availability on growth and reproduction of three commercially important marine fish species: white seabream (Diplodus sargus), zebra seabream (Diplodus cervinus) and Senegalese sole (Solea senegalensis). Model simulations used a parameter set for each species, estimated by the Add-my-Pet method using data from laboratory experiments complemented with bibliographic sources. An acidification stress factor was added as a modifier of the somatic maintenance costs and estimated for each species to quantify the effect of a decrease in pH from 8.0 to 7.4 (white seabream) or 7.7 (zebra seabream and Senegalese sole). The model was used to project total length of individuals along their usual lifespan and number of eggs produced by an adult individual within one year, under different climate change scenarios for the end of the 21st century. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SSP5–8.5, ocean warming led to higher growth rates during the first years of development, as well as an increase of 32–34% in egg production, for the three species. Ocean acidification contributed to reduced growth for white seabream and Senegalese sole and a small increase for zebra seabream, as well as a decrease in egg production of 48–52% and 14–33% for white seabream and Senegalese sole, respectively, and an increase of 4–5% for zebra seabream. The combined effect of ocean warming and acidification is strongly dependent on the decrease of food availability, which leads to significant reduction in growth and egg production. This is the first study to assess the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification using DEB models on fish, therefore, further research is needed for a better understanding of these climate change-related effects among different taxonomic groups and species.

Research on recruitment variability has gained momentum in the last years, undoubtedly due to the many unknowns related to climate change impacts. Knowledge about recruitment—the process of small, young fish transitioning to an older, larger life stage—timing and success is especially important for commercial fish species, as it allows predicting the availability of fish and adapting fishing practices for its sustainable exploitation. Predicting tools for determining the combined effect of temperature rise and food quality and quantity reduction (two expected outcomes of climate change) on early-life history traits of fish larvae are valuable for anticipating and adjusting fishing pressure and policy. Here we use a previously published and validated dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for the common sole (Solea solea) and adapt and use the same DEB model for the Senegalese sole (S. senegalensis) to predict the effects of temperature and food availability on Solea spp. early life-history traits. We create seven simulation scenarios, recreating RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and including a reduction in food availability. Our results show that temperature and food availability both affect the age at metamorphosis, which is advanced in all scenarios that include a temperature rise and delayed when food is limited. Age at puberty was also affected by the temperature increase but portrayed a more complex response that is dependent on the spawning (batch) period. We discuss the implications of our results in a climate change context.