This comprehensive overview focuses on the issues presented by the pandemic due to COVID-19, understanding its spread and the wide-ranging effects of government-imposed restrictions. The overview examines the utility of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, which are often overlooked in pandemic forecasting due to perceived limitations in handling complex and dynamic scenarios. Our work applies ARIMA models to a case study using data from Recife, the capital of Pernambuco, Brazil, collected between March and September 2020. The research provides insights into the implications and adaptability of predictive methods in the context of a global pandemic. The findings highlight the ARIMA models’ strength in generating accurate short-term forecasts, crucial for an immediate response to slow down the disease’s rapid spread. Accurate and timely predictions serve as the basis for evidence-based public health strategies and interventions, greatly assisting in pandemic management. Our model selection involves an automated process optimizing parameters by using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as various precise measures. The performance of the chosen ARIMA model is confirmed when comparing its forecasts with real data reported after the forecast period. The study successfully forecasts both confirmed and recovered COVID-19 cases across the preventive plan phases in Recife. However, limitations in the model’s performance are observed as forecasts extend into the future. By the end of the study period, the model’s error substantially increased, and it failed to detect the stabilization and deceleration of cases. The research highlights challenges associated with COVID-19 data in Brazil, such as under-reporting and data recording delays. Despite these limitations, the study emphasizes the potential of ARIMA models for short-term pandemic forecasting while emphasizing the need for further research to enhance long-term predictions.

SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) imaging plays a central role in Remote Sensing due to, among other important features, its ability to provide high-resolution, day-and-night and almost weather-independent images. SAR images are affected from a granular contamination, speckle, that can be described by a multiplicative model. Many despeckling techniques have been proposed in the literature, as well as measures of the quality of the results they provide. Assuming the multiplicative model, the observed image Z is the product of two independent fields: the backscatter X and the speckle Y. The result of any speckle filter is $\widehat{X}$ , an estimator of the backscatter X, based solely on the observed data Z. An ideal estimator would be the one for which the ratio of the observed image to the filtered one $I=Z/\widehat{X}$ is only speckle: a collection of independent identically distributed samples from Gamma variates. We, then, assess the quality of a filter by the closeness of I to the hypothesis that it is adherent to the statistical properties of pure speckle. We analyze filters through the ratio image they produce with regards to first- and second-order statistics: the former check marginal properties, while the latter verifies lack of structure. A new quantitative image-quality index is then defined, and applied to state-of-the-art despeckling filters. This new measure provides consistent results with commonly used quality measures (equivalent number of looks, PSNR, MSSIM, $\beta$ edge correlation, and preservation of the mean), and ranks the filters results also in agreement with their visual analysis. We conclude our study showing that the proposed measure can be successfully used to optimize the (often many) parameters that define a speckle filter.

The main objective of the present article is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to May 8, 2020. Countries selected for analysis with the RGM were China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Spain. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of the other above countries, which supposedly are in the middle or towards the end of the outbreak at the time of this writing. We also analysed the case of Brazil, which is in an initial sub-exponential growth regime, and so we used the generalised growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy of the outbreak to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions.

In this article, we propose a comparative study between two models that can be used by researchers for the analysis of survival data: (i) the Weibull regression model and (ii) the random survival forest (RSF) model. The models are compared considering the error rate, the performance of the model through the Harrell C-index, and the identification of the relevant variables for survival prediction. A statistical analysis of a data set from the Heart Institute of the University of São Paulo, Brazil, has been carried out. In the study, the length of stay of patients undergoing cardiac surgery, within the operating room, was used as the response variable. The obtained results show that the RSF model has less error rate for the training and testing data sets, at 23.55% and 20.31%, respectively, than the Weibull model, which has an error rate of 23.82%. Regarding the Harrell C-index, we obtain the values 0.76, 0.79, and 0.76, for the RSF and Weibull models, respectively. After the selection procedure, the Weibull model contains variables associated with the type of protocol and type of patient being statistically significant at 5%. The RSF model chooses age, type of patient, and type of protocol as relevant variables for prediction. We employ the randomForestSRC package of the R software to perform our data analysis and computational experiments. The proposal that we present has many applications in biology and medicine, which are discussed in the conclusions of this work.

Beta regression models are a class of supervised learning tools for regression problems with univariate and limited response. Current fitting procedures for beta regression require variable selection based on (potentially problematic) information criteria. We propose model selection criteria that take into account the leverage, residuals, and influence of the observations, both to systematic linear and nonlinear components. To that end, we propose a Predictive Residual Sum of Squares (PRESS)-like machine learning tool and a prediction coefficient, namely $P^2$ statistic, as a computational procedure. Monte Carlo simulation results on the finite sample behavior of prediction-based model selection criteria $P^2$ are provided. We also evaluated two versions of the $R^2$ criterion. Finally, applications to real data are presented. The new criterion proved to be crucial to choose models taking into account the robustness of the maximum likelihood estimation procedure in the presence of influential cases.