Victor Leiva

Prof. Dr. Victor Leiva

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaiso
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Top one mathematics/statistics scientist in Chile and Hispan...

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

25Years (2002-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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4 May 2007 in Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
NBN. Balakrishnan
N. Balakrishnan
Victor LeivaVictor Leiva
Victor Leiva
JLJorge López
Jorge López
In this article, we develop acceptance sampling plans when the life test is truncated at a pre-fixed time. The minimum sample size necessary to ensure the specified median life is obtained by assuming that the lifetimes of the test units follow a generalized Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. The operating characteristic values of the sampling plans as well as producer's risk are presented. Two examples are also given to illustrate the procedure developed here, with one of them being based on a real data from software reliability.

16 November 2013 in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
PDF file
Elisa Frutos-BernalElisa Frutos-Bernal
Elisa Frutos-Bernal
Purificación GalindoPurificación Galindo
Purificación Galindo
Victor LeivaVictor Leiva
Victor Leiva

20 April 2021 in Entropy
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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CPCarlos A. Palacios
Carlos A. Palacios
JRJosé Antonio Reyes-Suárez
José Antonio Reyes-Suárez
LPLorena Andrea Pilomeno
Lorena Andrea Pilomeno
Victor LeivaVictor Leiva
Victor Leiva
CMCarolina Marchant
Carolina Marchant
Data mining is employed to extract useful information and to detect patterns from often large data sets, closely related to knowledge discovery in databases and data science. In this investigation, we formulate models based on machine learning algorithms to extract relevant information predicting student retention at various levels, using higher education data and specifying the relevant variables involved in the modeling. Then, we utilize this information to help the process of knowledge discovery. We predict student retention at each of three levels during their first, second, and third years of study, obtaining models with an accuracy that exceeds 80% in all scenarios. These models allow us to adequately predict the level when dropout occurs. Among the machine learning algorithms used in this work are: decision trees, k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, naive Bayes, random forest, and support vector machines, of which the random forest technique performs the best. We detect that secondary educational score and the community poverty index are important predictive variables, which have not been previously reported in educational studies of this type. The dropout assessment at various levels reported here is valid for higher education institutions around the world with similar conditions to the Chilean case, where dropout rates affect the efficiency of such institutions. Having the ability to predict dropout based on student’s data enables these institutions to take preventative measures, avoiding the dropouts. In the case study, balancing the majority and minority classes improves the performance of the algorithms.

1 February 2005 in Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
JDJosé A. Dı́az-Garcı́a
José A. Dı́az-Garcı́a
Victor LeivaVictor Leiva
Victor Leiva

12 July 2023 in Mathematics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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Raydonal OspinaRaydonal Ospina
Raydonal Ospina
JGJoão Gondim
João Gondim
Victor LeivaVictor Leiva
Victor Leiva
Cecília CastroCecília Castro
Cecília Castro
This comprehensive overview focuses on the issues presented by the pandemic due to COVID-19, understanding its spread and the wide-ranging effects of government-imposed restrictions. The overview examines the utility of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, which are often overlooked in pandemic forecasting due to perceived limitations in handling complex and dynamic scenarios. Our work applies ARIMA models to a case study using data from Recife, the capital of Pernambuco, Brazil, collected between March and September 2020. The research provides insights into the implications and adaptability of predictive methods in the context of a global pandemic. The findings highlight the ARIMA models’ strength in generating accurate short-term forecasts, crucial for an immediate response to slow down the disease’s rapid spread. Accurate and timely predictions serve as the basis for evidence-based public health strategies and interventions, greatly assisting in pandemic management. Our model selection involves an automated process optimizing parameters by using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as various precise measures. The performance of the chosen ARIMA model is confirmed when comparing its forecasts with real data reported after the forecast period. The study successfully forecasts both confirmed and recovered COVID-19 cases across the preventive plan phases in Recife. However, limitations in the model’s performance are observed as forecasts extend into the future. By the end of the study period, the model’s error substantially increased, and it failed to detect the stabilization and deceleration of cases. The research highlights challenges associated with COVID-19 data in Brazil, such as under-reporting and data recording delays. Despite these limitations, the study emphasizes the potential of ARIMA models for short-term pandemic forecasting while emphasizing the need for further research to enhance long-term predictions.

1 August 2007 in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
Victor LeivaVictor Leiva
Victor Leiva
MBMichelli Barros
Michelli Barros
GPGilberto A. Paula
Gilberto A. Paula
MGManuel Galea
Manuel Galea