The Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone is located on the edge of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot region. In 1985, the Kaziranga National Park (KNP) was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. Nowadays, anthropogenic interference has created a significant negative impact on this national park. As a result, the area under natural habitat is gradually decreasing. The current study attempted to analyze the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone using remote sensing data with CA-Markov models. Satellite remote sensing and the geographic information system (GIS) are widely used for monitoring, mapping, and change detection of LULC change dynamics. The changing rate was assessed using thirty years (1990–2020) of Landsat data. The study analyses the significant change in LULC, with the decrease in the waterbody, grassland and agricultural land, and the increase of sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas. Between 1990 and 2020, waterbody, grassland, and agricultural land decreased by 18.4, 9.96, and 64.88%, respectively, while sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas increased by 103.72, 6.96, and 89.03%, respectively. The result shows that the area covered with waterbodies, grassland, and agricultural land is mostly converted into built-up areas and sand or dry river bed areas. According to this study, by 2050, waterbodies, sand or dry river beds, and forests will decrease by 3.67, 3.91, and 7.11%, respectively; while grassland and agriculture will increase by up to 16.67% and 0.37%, respectively. The built-up areas are expected to slightly decrease during this period (up to 2.4%). The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the long-term management of the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone.

Floods represent a significant threat to human life, property, and agriculture, especially in low-lying floodplains. This study assesses flood susceptibility in the Brahmaputra River basin, which spans China, India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh—an area notorious for frequent flooding due to the saturation of river water intake capacity. We developed and evaluated several innovative models for predicting flood susceptibility by employing Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques. The models showed robust performance, evidenced by Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) scores exceeding 70% and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) scores below 30%. Our findings indicate that approximately one-third of the studied region is categorized as moderately to highly flood-prone, while over 40% is classified as low to very low flood-risk areas. Specific regions with high to very high flood susceptibility include Dhemaji, Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Majuli, Darrang, Nalbari, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, and Dhubri districts in Assam; Coochbihar and Jalpaiguri districts in West Bengal; and Kurigram, Gaibandha, Bogra, Sirajganj, Pabna, Jamalpur, and Manikganj districts in Bangladesh. Owing to their strong performance and the suitability of the training datasets, we recommend the application of the developed MCDM techniques and ML algorithms in geographically similar areas. This study holds significant implications for policymakers, regional administrators, environmentalists, and engineers by informing flood management and prevention strategies, serving as a climate change adaptive response within the Brahmaputra River basin.

Climate change and anthropogenic factors have exacerbated flood risks in many regions across the globe, including the Himalayan foothill region in India. The Jia Bharali River basin, situated in this vulnerable area, frequently experiences high-magnitude floods, causing significant damage to the environment and local communities. Developing accurate and reliable flood susceptibility models is crucial for effective flood prevention, management, and adaptation strategies. In this study, we aimed to generate a comprehensive flood susceptibility zone model for the Jia Bharali catchment by integrating statistical methods with expert knowledge-based mathematical models. We applied four distinct models, including the Frequency Ratio model, Fuzzy Logic (FL) model, Multi-criteria Decision Making based Analytical Hierarchy Process model, and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process model, to evaluate the flood susceptibility of the basin. The results revealed that approximately one-third of the Jia Bharali basin area fell within moderate to very high flood-prone zones. In contrast, over 50% of the area was classified as low to very low flood-prone zones. The applied models demonstrated strong performance, with ROC-AUC scores exceeding 70% and MAE, MSE, and RMSE scores below 30%. FL and AHP were recommended for application among the models in areas with similar physiographic characteristics due to their exceptional performance and the training datasets. This study offers crucial insights for policymakers, regional administrative authorities, environmentalists, and engineers working in the Himalayan foothill region. By providing a robust flood susceptibility model, the research enhances flood prevention efforts and management, thereby serving as a vital climate change adaptation strategy for the Jia Bharali River basin and similar regions. The findings also have significant implications for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development in vulnerable areas, contributing to the global efforts towards achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

The alteration of land use and land cover caused by human activities on a global scale has had a notable impact on ecosystem services at regional and global levels, which are crucial for the survival and welfare of human beings. Merbil, a small freshwater wetland located in the Brahmaputra basin in Assam, India, is not exempt from this phenomenon. In the present study, we have estimated and shown a spatio-temporal variation of ecosystem service values in response to land use and land cover alteration for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021, and predicted the same for 2030 and 2040. Supervised classification and the CA-Markov model were used in this study for land-use and land-cover classification and future projection, respectively. The result showed a significant increase in built-up areas, agricultural land, and aquatic plants and a decrease in open water and vegetation during 1990–2040. The study area experienced a substantial rise in ecosystem service values during the observed period (1990–2021) due to the rapid expansion of built-up areas and agricultural and aquatic land. Although the rise of built-up and agricultural land is economically profitable and has increased the study site’s overall ecosystem service values, decreasing the area under open water and vegetation cover may have led to an ecological imbalance in the study site. Hence, we suggest that protecting the natural ecosystem should be a priority in future land-use planning. The study will aid in developing natural resource sustainability management plans and provide useful guidelines for preserving the local ecological balance in small wetlands over the short to medium term.

Bank erosion hazard is a frequent occurrence that poses threats to floodplain ecosystems. This analysis examined changes to the Jia Bharali River channel in India using the GIS-based Digital Shoreline Analysis System [DSAS]. The Jia Bharali’s future channel was predicted so as to identify the most erosion-susceptible zones. The rate of bankline movement was calculated using remotely sensed data collected over a period of 45 years (1976–2021). The results show that the river’s erosion and deposition rates were higher in the early years than towards the later part of the period under analysis. On the right and left banks of the river, the average shift rate was −9.22 and 5.8 m/y, respectively, which is comparatively high. The chosen portion of the river was evenly divided into three zones, A, B, and C. The most positively affected zone was zone A. The left bank of zone B exhibited a higher rate of erosion than the right bank, indicating that the river was moving to the left [eastward] in this zone. At the same time, the right bank was being eroded faster than the left, indicating a westward thrust at zone C. The predicted result demonstrates that the left bank of zone B and the right bank of zone C would have a higher average migration rate. Therefore, these banks were identified as being the most susceptible to bank erosion. The study evaluates the spatio-temporal change of the river in sensitive regions where neighboring settlements and infrastructure were at risk of changing channel dynamics. Using the actual and forecasted bankline, the degree of accuracy was confirmed. The results of the automated prediction approach could be useful for river hazard management in the Jia Bharali and in similar environmental settings with tropical high precipitation zones.