In the CAP reform 2014–2020, the ‘green’ component of direct payments remunerates environmental services and includes three greening requirements: crop diversification, maintenance of permanent grassland and establishment of an ecological focus area (EFA). This paper evaluates the effect of ‘greening’ and payment redistribution on farm incomes and land use, considering two different hypotheses of the EFA weighting factor (Ewf) for nitrogen-fixing crops. The evaluation is developed at farm level by a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and applied to more than 2,000 farms in northern Italy. The results show that crop diversification will mainly affect the cereal area, with significant reductions in maize and wheat, while the EFA requirement, especially with the lower Ewf, will boost the spread of protein crops. Nevertheless, ‘greening’ does not significantly affect farm income, while greater economic effects are mainly due to the redistribution of direct payments.

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia raises several questions and uncertainty about the cereal supply chain and market trends. This international crisis and other factors influencing the market, such as the environmental and climate ones, have placed greater attention on Italy’s dependence on foreign countries for some important products for our agri-food industry, including cereals and feed for the livestock sector. The Italian pasta industry, as well as bakery products, need a constant and large supply of wheat, which often comes from foreign markets. This also applies to the livestock sector, with relevant imports of raw materials from abroad for the feed sector. International events also affected Italian cereal imports, although Italy does not strongly depend on the Black Sea for these products. This article provides an analysis of the Italian import of cereals in the recent period when market instability linked to the conflict and other factors emerged. The study also focuses on the forecast for the future and on the role of price dynamics.