To explore the key factors and specific thresholds of water resources limiting economic development, and to provide technical support for water resources management in cities dominated by agriculture similar to Zhangjiakou. We used the Tapio elastic decoupling method to quantitatively evaluate the decoupling relationship between the water resources ecological footprint (WEF) and economic growth. Then the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and mathematical statistics are used to identify the key factors and threshold effects. The results show a significant decreasing trend in the WEF and obvious spatial differences in Zhangjiakou between 2006 and 2015, with agricultural ecological footprint dominating all districts and counties (77.54 ± 14.35%). The changes in technological effect are a contributing factor to the decoupling between the WEF and the economy in Zhangjiakou, while the economic effect is the main restricting factor. In particular, there is a high correlation between the WEF and the number of water-saving irrigation machines and the total power of agricultural machinery. According to the findings, for water-scarce cities such as Zhangjiakou, where agriculture is the primary focus, it is suggested that increasing the number of agricultural machinery can effectively alleviate the problem of water scarcity constraining economic development.

BACKGROUND: Yanghe Watershed has low annual rainfall, uneven spatial and temporal distribution, extreme shortage of water resources in some areas. The contradiction between supply and demand of water for agricultural production is prominent and the expected production value cannot be achieved. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the supply and demand of agricultural water resources and the impact of green water on agricultural crops in Yanghe Watershed.RESULTS: This article proposes a new crop economic model for increasing the green‐water footprint to blue‐water footprint ratio (GWF:BWF) in accordance with the regional characteristics, alleviating agricultural water shortage in irrigation areas, optimizing water resource allocation, and achieving sustainable agricultural development. The proposition is based on a study of five crops in eight districts and counties in the Yanghe River watershed. By combining the economic model F with a crop water production function, we achieved 89.3%, 88.9%, 97.1%, 81.5%, and 87.0% of the optimal water demands of the five crops, respectively, and effectively improved the underground irrigation of crops and the water resource utilization efficiency.CONCLUSION: The GWF:BWF threshold interval was subsequently selected based on the temporal changes in the BWF and GWF in the study area. This enabled significant reduction of the planting area of blue‐water crops and increase in the proportion of green‐water crops, while also improving the agricultural economy of the Yanghe Watershed. The proposed model promises to afford enhanced management of agricultural irrigation areas that experience rainfall shortage. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Natural climate variations and human activities have significantly altered the river–lake hydrological regimes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, leading to substantial changes in the inundation patterns of the Dongting Lake wetland, which in turn profoundly affect the spatial distribution and landscape patterns of wetland vegetation. Determining the response mechanisms and appropriate thresholds of wetland landscape patterns to hydrological rhythm changes is of great importance for maintaining the health of wetland ecosystems and optimizing the ecological operation of water conservancy projects. Based on long-term measured water level data (1992–2023) and multi-temporal Landsat remote sensing images (1997–2022), combined with a digital elevation model (DEM), this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the inundation processes in Dongting Lake before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) and their driving mechanisms on the plant landscape patterns of the floodplain wetland. The results show that after the TGP operation, the inundation pattern of Dongting Lake exhibited a drying trend, with a significant decline in annual mean water level (the largest drop of approximately 0.7 m in East Dongting Lake) and a marked reduction in the lake-wide average inundation duration (T) and inundation frequency (F). From 1997 to 2022, the total area of wetland vegetation in Dongting Lake showed a significant expansion trend, and the succession of the landscape pattern experienced a nonlinear process of stability, fragmentation, and recovery. The stepwise regression model revealed that the three elements of the inundation process explained more than 80% of the landscape pattern variation, among which inundation frequency (F) and inundation duration (T) were the core driving factors. Specifically, inundation frequency primarily regulated landscape diversity (SHDI) and contagion (CONTAG) through an environmental filtering effect, while maximum inundation depth (H) mainly maintained the physical connectivity (COHESION) of the landscape. Furthermore, the study quantified the stable hydrological range of the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem: when the inundation frequency is maintained at 0.40–0.50 and the annual inundation duration is controlled at 4–5 months, the wetland landscape is in an optimal structural state. Once the warning thresholds are breached (e.g., F < 0.35 or T < 90 days), it may trigger the rapid expansion of cultivated poplar forests under combined hydrological and anthropogenic influences, leading to severe habitat fragmentation. These findings deepen the understanding of the response mechanisms of vegetation landscape patterns in large lake wetlands under altered hydrological rhythms.