The paper provides a comparative analysis of economic growth in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and discusses differences in development of the main sectors during the period 2000–2016. Based on detailed analysis of energy sector development, the driving factors influencing changes in primary energy consumption in each country and in the Baltic region are discovered. Increase of renewable energy sources (RES) consumption in the Baltic region over this period by 73.6% is emphasized. The paper presents valuable insights from analysis of trends in final energy consumption by sectors of the national economies, branches of the manufacturing sector, and by energy carriers. Long-term relationships between economic growth and final energy consumption are established. An econometric model was applied to predict final energy demand in the Baltic States for the 2020 horizon. It is emphasized that growing activities in the manufacturing and transport sectors will cause increase of final energy demand in all three countries. Based on detailed analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends some positive shifts are shown and the necessity of new policies in the transport sector and agriculture is identified. Changes of emission intensity indicators are examined and a potential for decoupling of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from economic growth in Estonia is indicated.

The improvement in energy efficiency (EE) and increasing consumption of renewable energy sources (RES) in manufacturing play an important role in pursuing sustainable development in the Baltic States and contribute to the transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of the channel through which EE, along with structural activity changes, passes energy intensity and total energy savings and in combination with other key drivers results in reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in manufacturing in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania during the period 2010–2020, taking into account the role of transformations in the energy and climate framework of the European Union (EU). The Fisher Ideal Index, the Kaya identity, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and comparative analysis methods are used. The results of the impact analysis of key drivers on energy intensity showed different contributions towards improvements in EE and structural activity changes to changes in energy intensity in manufacturing, which decreased by 53.1% in Estonia, by 30.5% in Lithuania, and by 16.5% in Latvia. The dominant role of EE improvements on total energy savings is identified. The results of the GHG decomposition analysis showed that because of improvements in energy intensity, reductions in the share of fossil fuels, and increases in labour productivity, number of employees, and emissions intensity, the GHG emissions decreased by 35.5% in Estonia, 40.4% in Latvia, and 8.1% in Lithuania. The results confirm the need for new policies and the implementation of relevant commitments to save energy and increase the contribution of RES in all three countries.

The deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) is an essential strategic objective of sustainable energy development in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Their growing contribution to the total primary energy supply can significantly facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The paper provides findings from an in-depth comparative analysis of RES deployment trends during 2010–2019 in the Baltic countries in the context of energy policy documents of the European Union (EU). The dynamics of targeted RES indicators according to the Renewables Directive 2009/28/EC and National Programmes and the role of renewable energies in mitigating climate change are analysed. A key role of the heating and cooling sector in deploying RES is highlighted and a necessity to implement radical changes in the transport sector of the Baltic countries is revealed. The paper examines changes in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impact of driving factors in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The Kaya identity and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method are used for the decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis conducted, the impact of population change, economic growth, decline of energy intensity, RES deployment and reduction of emission intensity on change of GHG emissions in countries of the BSR and, on average, in the EU-27 during 2010–2019 is revealed.

The objective of this research was to construct energy intensity forecasting models for key manufacturing industries, with a particular focus on “catching up” European economies. Future energy intensity values serve as the foundation for energy demand forecasts, which are essential inputs for the analysis of countries’ decarbonisation scenarios. The Lithuanian case is analysed in the context of its efforts to reach the economic development level of the most advanced European Union (EU) countries. The scientific literature and energy policy analysis, interdependence (correlation and regression), tendency and case analysis, logical economic reasoning, and graphical representation methods have been applied. The energy intensity forecasts until 2050 were based on historical statistical data of value added and final energy consumption of EU countries from 2000 to 2021. The analysis of historical trends revealed a remarkable decrease in industrial energy intensity in most EU countries, including Lithuania. Given the rapid pace of decline in historical energy intensity, the values observed in individual Lithuanian industries have already reached levels comparable to the most economically advanced EU countries. Four econometric trendlines were employed to construct forecasting models for energy intensity. The results for Lithuania demonstrated that the selected trendlines exhibited a high degree of fit with historical energy intensity data from the EU, as evidenced by their R² values. Furthermore, the forecasts were shown to be highly accurate, with their MAPEs remaining below 10% in most cases. Nevertheless, the logarithmic trendline was found to be the most accurate for forecasting energy intensity in total manufacturing (MAPE = 4.0%), non-metallic minerals (MAPE = 3.5%), and food, beverages, and tobacco (MAPE = 4.1%) industries, with the exponential trendline in the chemical industry (MAPE = 8.7%) and the moving average in the total manufacturing industry (MAPE = 4.0%), food industries (MAPE = 4.0%), and remaining aggregate industries (MAPE = 14.5%). It is forecasted that energy intensity could decline by 8 to 16% to 1.10–1.20 kWh/EUR in Lithuania’s manufacturing industries by 2050.

This paper aims to understand the significance of energy sufficiency (ES) in passenger transport for the long-term resolution of energy, climate, and sustainable development issues in Lithuania. It computes related indicators, by fixing the passenger-kilometres (pkm) travelled by various modes of transportation and applying a scenario analysis with the MESSAGE model. The findings indicated that the country’s final energy consumption (FEC) in transportation could be reduced by 21.8% by 2050 due to slowing growth rate of distances travelled by passenger car but increasing use of public transport and bicycles. This would result in a decrease in the growth rate of primary energy consumption (PEC) by half (to 0.3% a year), an increase in the use of renewable energy sources (RES) to 67.2% in the PEC structure, savings of oil products by 6.4 TWh, and savings of new electricity generation capacity by 550 MW. Furthermore, 20 MtCO_2eq. in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions could be realised between 2021 and 2050. To take advantage of the potential of ES, the policy measures of passenger car demand containment and a shift to non-motorised and less polluting modes of transportation should be implemented. Furthermore, priority should be given to policy measures that encourage use of public transportation.