This paper aimed at assessing the technical and economic potential of using rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Lithuanian urban areas to support energy and climate policy formation and its implementation in the country. A bottom-up approach was applied. A number of apartment (AP), commercial (COM) and public (PUB) buildings, electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructures and solar PV systems in the largest Lithuanian cities were analyzed, and the results were tailored to national-wide estimates. LiDAR and photogrammetry data of building topologies, geographical information systems (GIS), digital maps for rooftop measurements, factual solar photovoltaic (PV) performance modeling, average profiles of solar PV systems, statistical data of energy consumption in buildings, levelized cost of energy (LCOE) models and the literature review method were used. The results of the assessment of selected buildings and their categories reveal that the rooftop area per installed PV unit was 14.1–18.3 m²/kW in AP buildings, followed by 18.0–18.6 m²/kW in COM and 6.1–18.3 m²/kW in PUB buildings; the factor of rooftop suitability for solar PV system installation varied in ranges of 31.5–85.4%, 48.9–99.4% and 50.1–88.2%, respectively. Corrected by expert judgement, these estimates served as inputs for the assessment of technical and economic potentials. Furthermore, energy generated by solar PV could be consumed locally with little supplied to the distribution grid, resulting in no or a limited need for expensive investments in infrastructure. In addition, locating an EV charger on the premises of COM or PUB buildings could improve the localized consumption of solar energy. Thus, rooftop solar PV systems in urban Lithuanian areas are preferable. The results of the technical potential analysis show that, on the rooftops of AP buildings, 272 MW could be installed, followed by 78 MW on roofs of PUB and 67 MW on COM buildings. If technical potential is extracted, EUR 332.7 million can be invested. The cost of energy produced by solar PV systems was estimated at 2.34–5.25 EURct/kWh, which is significantly lower than the prices of market and retail electricity, standing at 23 EURct/kWh and 24 EURct/kWh (with support from the government) in 2022, respectively. The research’s limitations are defined by the fact that average values were applied to estimate the technical and economic potential of rooftop solar PV systems; a limited number of building categories were analyzed; the category of private houses, which is minor in cities, was missed, and rural areas with a great number of private houses were not covered by this study.

This paper aims to evaluate price cannibalization effects in forecasts of long-term electricity prices and substantiate their relevance on the profitability of renewables in the Baltic States from 2024 to 2033. Statistical data analysis, literature review, scenario method, and PLEXOS modeling were applied. Five scenarios were analyzed for developing renewable energy sources (RES) and load in Lithuania. In contrast, scenarios for Estonia and Latvia were based on assumptions derived from the countries’ national RES strategies. The results showed that the increase in RES capacities will halve electricity market prices from around 130 EUR/MWh in 2024 to 58 EUR/MWh in Latvia, 60 EUR/MWh in Estonia, and 60–77 EUR/MWh in Lithuania in 2033. In time-waving, the absolute and relative price cannibalization effects of renewables were found. In 2033, the loss of revenue from solar photovoltaic (PV) generators was estimated to be 5.5–17.0 EUR/MWh in Lithuania, 7.1 EUR/MWh in Latvia, and 5.6 EUR in Estonia. The case of onshore wind demonstrated revenue losses of 10.5–22.0 EUR/MWh in Lithuania, 12.0 EUR/MWh in Latvia, and 10.0 EUR/MWh in Estonia. After 2029, revenues received by RES electricity generators could not guarantee project profitability; therefore, market flexibility options will be required. The key innovative strategy to mitigate the price cannibalization effect is the demand-side response when leveraging demand flexibility. Typically, this is achieved by sending price signals to the consumers who, if they have any, shift their demand to lower price periods. This is easily applied within HVAC systems, smart electric vehicle charging, and smart home appliance usage. Such behavior would allow the price cannibalization effect to be decreased.

The paper provides a comparative analysis of economic growth in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and discusses differences in development of the main sectors during the period 2000–2016. Based on detailed analysis of energy sector development, the driving factors influencing changes in primary energy consumption in each country and in the Baltic region are discovered. Increase of renewable energy sources (RES) consumption in the Baltic region over this period by 73.6% is emphasized. The paper presents valuable insights from analysis of trends in final energy consumption by sectors of the national economies, branches of the manufacturing sector, and by energy carriers. Long-term relationships between economic growth and final energy consumption are established. An econometric model was applied to predict final energy demand in the Baltic States for the 2020 horizon. It is emphasized that growing activities in the manufacturing and transport sectors will cause increase of final energy demand in all three countries. Based on detailed analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends some positive shifts are shown and the necessity of new policies in the transport sector and agriculture is identified. Changes of emission intensity indicators are examined and a potential for decoupling of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from economic growth in Estonia is indicated.

The improvement in energy efficiency (EE) and increasing consumption of renewable energy sources (RES) in manufacturing play an important role in pursuing sustainable development in the Baltic States and contribute to the transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of the channel through which EE, along with structural activity changes, passes energy intensity and total energy savings and in combination with other key drivers results in reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in manufacturing in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania during the period 2010–2020, taking into account the role of transformations in the energy and climate framework of the European Union (EU). The Fisher Ideal Index, the Kaya identity, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and comparative analysis methods are used. The results of the impact analysis of key drivers on energy intensity showed different contributions towards improvements in EE and structural activity changes to changes in energy intensity in manufacturing, which decreased by 53.1% in Estonia, by 30.5% in Lithuania, and by 16.5% in Latvia. The dominant role of EE improvements on total energy savings is identified. The results of the GHG decomposition analysis showed that because of improvements in energy intensity, reductions in the share of fossil fuels, and increases in labour productivity, number of employees, and emissions intensity, the GHG emissions decreased by 35.5% in Estonia, 40.4% in Latvia, and 8.1% in Lithuania. The results confirm the need for new policies and the implementation of relevant commitments to save energy and increase the contribution of RES in all three countries.

The deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) is an essential strategic objective of sustainable energy development in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Their growing contribution to the total primary energy supply can significantly facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The paper provides findings from an in-depth comparative analysis of RES deployment trends during 2010–2019 in the Baltic countries in the context of energy policy documents of the European Union (EU). The dynamics of targeted RES indicators according to the Renewables Directive 2009/28/EC and National Programmes and the role of renewable energies in mitigating climate change are analysed. A key role of the heating and cooling sector in deploying RES is highlighted and a necessity to implement radical changes in the transport sector of the Baltic countries is revealed. The paper examines changes in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impact of driving factors in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The Kaya identity and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method are used for the decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis conducted, the impact of population change, economic growth, decline of energy intensity, RES deployment and reduction of emission intensity on change of GHG emissions in countries of the BSR and, on average, in the EU-27 during 2010–2019 is revealed.

Economic development and rising welfare lead to higher demand for energy services, which can limit or even negate the results of costly energy efficiency (EE) upgrades. At present, some consumption patterns in Central and Eastern European countries are more sustainable compared to the European Union (EU) average but are rapidly approaching it. Energy sufficiency (ES) leading to an absolute reduction in energy demand will be essential for achieving net zero climate goals, as it will contribute to reducing energy use and the significant investment needs associated with the electrification of the energy system. Various regulatory solutions can be deployed in pursuit of ES targets, but little information is available on the possible impacts on energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially at the national level. This paper focuses on the residential building sector of two Central and Eastern European countries: Lithuania and Hungary. It attempts to quantify the potential energy demand reduction, associated GHG savings and the resulting change in the energy mix from limiting the per capita heated floor area using scenario analysis with the MESSAGE and HU-TIMES energy system models. The findings suggest that final energy demand could be reduced by 3.6% in Lithuania and 0.9% in Hungary. This would lead to a change in the energy production mix resulting in lower GHG emissions and savings on new energy generation capacity. The results of the research are indicative, as no costs were assigned to ES measures and the calculations were based on assumed levels of ES indicators. However, they suggest that it is worth identifying the consumption segments with ES potential, as a combination of the relevant measures can largely contribute to the achievement of net zero emissions.