This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

The Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-Balance Study Enabled by a High-Density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) is an ongoing National Science Foundation project based on an intensive field campaign that occurred from June to October 2019. The purpose of the study is to examine how the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) responds to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes. One of the main objectives is to test whether lack of energy balance closure measured by eddy covariance (EC) towers is related to mesoscale atmospheric processes. Finally, the project evaluates data-driven methods for scaling surface energy fluxes, with the aim to improve model–data comparison and integration. To address these questions, an extensive suite of ground, tower, profiling, and airborne instrumentation was deployed over a 10 km × 10 km domain of a heterogeneous forest ecosystem in the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin, United States, centered on an existing 447-m tower that anchors an AmeriFlux/NOAA supersite (US-PFa/WLEF). The project deployed one of the world’s highest-density networks of above-canopy EC measurements of surface energy fluxes. This tower EC network was coupled with spatial measurements of EC fluxes from aircraft; maps of leaf and canopy properties derived from airborne spectroscopy, ground-based measurements of plant productivity, phenology, and physiology; and atmospheric profiles of wind, water vapor, and temperature using radar, sodar, lidar, microwave radiometers, infrared interferometers, and radiosondes. These observations are being used with large-eddy simulation and scaling experiments to better understand submesoscale processes and improve formulations of subgrid-scale processes in numerical weather and climate models.

Structurally complex forests optimize resources to assimilate carbon more effectively, leading to higher productivity. Information obtained from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)‐derived canopy structural complexity (CSC) metrics across spatial scales serves as a powerful indicator of ecosystem‐scale functions such as gross primary productivity (GPP). However, our understanding of mechanistic links between forest structure and function, and the impact of disturbance on the relationship, is limited. Here, we paired eddy covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes from nine forested sites within the 10 × 10 km CHEESEHEAD19 study domain in Northern Wisconsin, USA with drone LiDAR measurements of CSC to establish which CSC metrics were strong drivers of GPP, and tested potential mediators of the relationship. Mechanistic relationships were inspected at five resolutions (0.25, 2, 10, 25, and 50 m) to determine whether relationships persisted with scale. Vertical heterogeneity metrics were the most influential in predicting productivity for forests with a significant degree of heterogeneity in management, forest type, and species composition. CSC metrics included in the structure‐function relationship as well as driver strength was dependent on metric calculation resolution. The relationship was mediated by light use efficiency (LUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), with WUE being a stronger mediator and driver of GPP. These findings allow us to improve representation in ecosystem models of how CSC impacts light and water‐sensitive processes, and ultimately GPP. Improved models enhance our capacity to accurately simulate forest responses to management, furthering our ability to assess climate mitigation strategies.

Over the past decade, advancements in collection platforms such as unoccupied aerial systems (UAS), survey-grade GNSS, sensor packages, processing software, and spatial analytical tools have facilitated change detection analyses at an unprecedented resolution over broader spatial and temporal extents and in environments where such investigations present challenges. These technological improvements, coupled with the accessibility and versatility of UAS technology, have pushed the boundaries of spatial and temporal scales in geomorphic change detection. As a result, the cm-scale analysis of topographic signatures can detect and quantify surface anomalies during geomorphic evolution. This review focuses on the use of UAS photogrammetry for fine spatial (cm) and temporal (hours to days) scale geomorphic analyses, and it highlights analytical approaches to detect and quantify surface processes that were previously elusive. The review provides insight into topographic change characterization with precise spatial validations applied to landscape processes in various fields, such as the cryosphere and geosphere, as well as anthropogenic earth processes and national security applications. This work sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of both natural and human-engineered environments, demonstrating the potential of UAS observations in change detection. Our discussion examines the emerging horizons of UAS-based change detection, including machine learning and LIDAR systems. In addition, our meta-analysis of spatial and temporal UAS-based observations highlights the new fine-scale niche of UAS-photogrammetry. This scale advancement sets a new frontier in change detection, offering exciting possibilities for the future of land surface analysis and environmental monitoring in the field of Earth Science.

Advances in deep learning and computer vision are making significant contributions to flood mapping, particularly when integrated with remotely sensed data. Although existing supervised methods, especially deep convolutional neural networks, have proved to be effective, they require intensive manual labeling of flooded pixels to train a multi-layer deep neural network that learns abstract semantic features of the input data. This research introduces a novel weakly supervised approach for pixel-wise flood mapping by leveraging multi-temporal remote sensing imagery and image processing techniques (e.g., Normalized Difference Water Index and edge detection) to create weakly labeled data. Using these weakly labeled data, a bi-temporal U-Net model is then proposed and trained for flood detection without the need for time-consuming and labor-intensive human annotations. Using floods from Hurricanes Florence and Harvey as case studies, we evaluated the performance of the proposed bi-temporal U-Net model and baseline models, such as decision tree, random forest, gradient boost, and adaptive boosting classifiers. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conducted a comprehensive assessment that (1) covered multiple test sites with varying degrees of urbanization, and (2) utilized both bi-temporal (i.e., pre- and post-flood) and uni-temporal (i.e., only post-flood) input. The experimental results showed that the proposed framework of weakly labeled data generation and the bi-temporal U-Net could produce near real-time urban flood maps with consistently high precision, recall, f1 score, IoU score, and overall accuracy compared with baseline machine learning algorithms.

Thawing permafrost can alter topography, ecosystems, and sediment and carbon fluxes, but predicting landscape evolution of permafrost-influenced watersheds in response to warming and/or hydrological changes remains an unsolved challenge. Sediment flux and slope instability in sloping saturated soils have been commonly predicted from topographic metrics (e.g., slope, drainage area). In addition to topographic factors, cohesion imparted by soil and vegetation and melting ground ice may also control spatial trends in slope stability, but the distribution of ground ice is poorly constrained and hard to predict. To address whether slope stability and surface displacements follow topographic-based predictions, we document recent drivers of permafrost sediment flux present on a landscape in western Alaska that include creep, solifluction, gullying, and catastrophic hillslope failures ranging in size from a few meters to tens of meters, and we find evidence of rapid and substantial landscape change on an annual timescale. We quantify the timing and rate of surface movements using a multi-pronged, multi-scalar dataset including aerial surveys, interannual GPS surveys, synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), and climate data. Despite clear visual evidence of downslope soil transport of solifluction lobes, we find that the interannual downslope surface displacement of these features does not outpace downslope displacement of soil in locations where lobes are absent (downslope movement means: 7 cm yr⁻¹ for lobes over 2 years vs. 10 cm yr⁻¹ in landscape positions without lobes over 1 year). Annual displacements do not appear related to slope, drainage area, or modeled total solar radiation but are likely related to soil thickness, and volumetric sediment fluxes are high compared to temperate landscapes of comparable bedrock lithology. Time series of InSAR displacements show accelerated movement in late summer, associated with intense rainfall and/or deep thaw. While mapped slope failures do cluster at slope–area thresholds, a simple slope stability model driven with hydraulic conductivities representative of throughflow in mineral and organic soil drastically overpredicts the occurrence of slope failures. This mismatch implies permafrost hillslopes have unaccounted-for cohesion and/or throughflow pathways, perhaps modulated by vegetation, which stabilize slopes against high rainfall. Our results highlight the breadth and complexity of soil transport processes in Arctic landscapes and demonstrate the utility of using a range of synergistic data collection methods to observe multiple scales of landscape change, which can aid in predicting periglacial landscape evolution.