Efforts to prevent and respond to heat-related illness would benefit by quantifying the impact of summer heat on acute population mortality. We estimated years of life lost due to heat in 14 European cities during the 1990s accounting for harvesting. We combined the number of deaths attributable to heat estimated by the PHEWE project with life expectancy derived from population life tables. The degree of harvesting was quantified by comparing the cumulative effect of heat up to lagged day 30 with the immediate effect of heat, by geographical region and age. Next, an evaluation of years of life lost adjusted for harvesting was obtained. Without accounting for harvesting, we estimated more than 23,000 years of life lost per year, 55% of which was among individuals younger than 75. When 30 day mortality displacement was taken into account, the overall impact reduced on average by 75%. Harvesting was more pronounced in North-continental cities than in Mediterranean cities and was stronger among young people than among elderly. High ambient temperatures during summer were responsible for many deaths in European cities during the 1990s, but a large percentage of these deaths likely involved frail persons whose demise was only briefly hastened by heat exposure. Differences in harvesting across regions and classes of age could reflect different proportions of frail individuals in the population or could be indicative of heterogeneous dynamics underlying the entry and exit of individuals from the high-risk pool which is subject to mortality displacement.

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

The opportunity to assess short term impact of air pollution relies on the causal interpretation of the exposure-response association. However, up to now few studies explicitly faced this issue within a causal inference framework. In this paper, we reformulated the problem of assessing the short term impact of air pollution on health using the potential outcome approach to causal inference. We considered the impact of high daily levels of particulate matter ≤10 μm in diameter (PM10) on mortality within two days from the exposure in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy), during the period 2003–2006. Our research focus was the causal impact of a hypothetical intervention setting daily air pollution levels under a pre-fixed threshold. We applied a matching procedure based on propensity score to estimate the total number of attributable deaths (AD) during the study period. After defining the number of attributable deaths in terms of difference between potential outcomes, we used the estimated propensity score to match each high exposure day, namely each day with a level of exposure higher than 40 μg/m3, with a day with similar background characteristics but a level of exposure lower than 40 μg/m3. Then, we estimated the impact by comparing mortality between matched days. During the study period daily exposures larger than 40 μg/m3 were responsible for 1079 deaths (90% CI: 116; 2042). The impact was more evident among the elderly than in the younger age classes. Exposures ≥ 40 μg/m3 were responsible, among the elderly, for 1102 deaths (90% CI: 388, 1816), of which 797 from cardiovascular causes and 243 from respiratory causes. Clear evidence of an impact on respiratory mortality was found also in the age class 65–74, with 87 AD (90% CI: 11, 163). The propensity score matching turned out to be an appealing method to assess historical impacts in this field, which guarantees that the estimated total number of AD can be derived directly as sum of either age-specific or cause-specific AD, unlike the standard model-based procedure. For this reason, it is a promising approach to perform surveillance focusing on very specific causes of death or diseases, or on susceptible subpopulations. Finally, the propensity score matching is free from issues concerning the exposure-confounders-mortality modeling and does not involve extrapolation. On the one hand this enhances the internal validity of our results; on the other, it makes the approach scarcely appropriate for estimating future impacts.

Background: Exposure to air pollution is associated with a short-term increase in mortality, and this field has begun to focus on health impact assessment.Objectives: Our aim was to estimate the impact of PM10 on mortality within 2 days from the exposure in the Italian region of Lombardy for the year 2007, at the municipality level, examining exposure entailed by daily intermunicipality commuting and accounting for uncertainty propagation.Methods: We combined data from different sources to derive probabilistic distributions for all input quantities used to calculate attributable deaths (mortality rates, PM10 concentrations, estimated PM10 effects, and commuting flows) and applied a Monte Carlo procedure to propagate uncertainty and sample the distribution of attributable deaths for each municipality.Results: We estimated that annual average PM10 concentrations above the World Health Organization-recommended threshold of 20 μg/m3 were responsible for 865 short-term deaths (80% credibility interval: 475, 1,...

Recent studies suggest that heat is associated with an increase in the number of ambulance calls and emergency department visits. We investigated the association between heat and daily number of emergency department visits at the University Hospital of Verona during the warm seasons 2011–2012 and we assessed the magnitude of the impact in terms of attributable events, focusing on the role of age and triage codification. We used a Poisson model to analyse the association between daily number of visits and daily mean apparent temperature, accounting for air pollution level and seasonality. The analyses were stratified by age group and were performed both on the total number of emergency department visits and on the subsample of high-priority visits. Impact estimates were obtained only for this subsample, using a Monte Carlo approach to account for sampling variability. Number of attributable events and attributable community rate were calculated. We found a positive and immediate association between event occurrence and mean apparent temperatures exceeding a threshold located around 28–29°C. The estimated percent change in the total number of visits per 1°C increase of exposure above the threshold was equal to 3.75 (90% CI: 3.01; 4.49). Focusing only on high-priority visits, the estimated percent change was larger and the greatest effect was among children. We estimated that apparent temperatures above the threshold were responsible for 1177 high-priority visits during the study period. Due to the record high temperatures observed in 2012 in Italy and in Europe, the impact in 2012 was much larger than in 2011, and consisted in 34 high-priority visits every 10000 children, 30 every 10000 people aged 15–64, and 38 every 10000 people aged 65 and over. Our results indicate that heat affects not only the elderly, but also children and non-elderly adults, stressing the need for developing public health preparedness plans for the entire community.

SUMMARY: We conduct principal stratification and mediation analysis to investigate to what extent the positive overall effect of treatment on postoperative pain control is mediated by postoperative self administration of intra-venous analgesia by patients in a prospective, randomized, double-blind study. Using the Bayesian approach for inference, we estimate both associative and dissociative principal strata effects arising in principal stratification, as well as natural effects from mediation analysis. We highlight that principal stratification and mediation analysis focus on different causal estimands, answer different causal questions, and involve different sets of structural assumptions.