The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 (EUBDS) aims to preserve and restore biodiversity by protecting large areas in the EU. An extensive part of these protected areas will presumably be covered by forests. This study analyses the economic effects of EUBDS implementation on German forestry in two scenarios, based on different possible interpretations of the EUBDS’ key commitments, using a forest economic simulation model. A special focus is placed on the opportunity costs of coarse wood debris (CWD). Over a simulated 200-year period, a decrease in timber harvest of 13% and 44% is estimated under the respective scenario assumptions. This leads to a reduction in the silvicultural contribution margin (SCM) of on average 0.25 B EUR a⁻¹ (14%) and 0.79 B EUR a⁻¹ (45%). In terms of the total SCM, protected forests contribute 35% and 15% in the two scenarios. The accumulation and preservation of CWD incurs a substantial loss of utility, as 15% and 19% of annual logging is required for conservation purposes. However, the EUBDS may also provide economically tangible benefits. A rational decision would be to implement a scenario if the “net benefit” from the protected status exceeds the losses from set-aside and conservation requirements.

The discontinuation of roundwood production and the change to a ‘carbon farming’ business model in beech ( Fagus sylvatica )–dominated commercial forest enterprises have been proposed as a potential climate‐mitigation strategy. This study employs a forest economic simulation model over a 200-year horizon to compare a managed business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a forest set-aside (FSA) scenario with ‘carbon farming’ instead of roundwood production. Climate-sensitive survival probabilities, parameterised under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, have been incorporated to reflect future mortality risks. Under FSA, additional carbon sequestration across aboveground and belowground biomass, and coarse woody debris reaches 740 t CO ₂ ha ⁻¹ (RCP 4.5) and 700 t CO ₂ ha ⁻¹ (RCP 8.5) when compared to BAU. Opportunity costs, measured as forgone net roundwood revenues, remain relatively constant over time as additional sequestration rates decline. Monetising sequestration via carbon credits yields break-even CO ₂ prices of approximately €33 t ⁻¹ CO ₂ at a 1% discount rate, €28 t ⁻¹ CO ₂ at 1.5%, and €25 t ⁻¹ CO ₂ at 2%. The results indicate that the set-aside of roundwood production in beech-dominated forest enterprises can deliver significant long-term carbon gains but entails temporal trade-offs between early climate benefits and sustained income from roundwood utilisation. The study’s outcomes aim to guide forest owners, policymakers, and other stakeholders involved in forest policy, carbon sequestration, and forest conservation in making informed decisions about discontinuing roundwood production in beech forest enterprises as a carbon sequestration strategy, while also providing estimates of the associated opportunity costs. Overall, this research contributes to the scientific understanding of the complex interactions between carbon sequestration and economic factors, offering a case study from Germany that can serve as a valuable reference for decision-making in other Central European regions with beech forest enterprises facing similar challenges.

The Forest Economic Simulation Model (FESIM) is a dynamic, modular framework that generates integrated ecological and economic projections for forest enterprises under varying scenarios. Fully formulated in linear algebra, the model ensures complete reproducibility and interpretability. The use of a single forest inventory snapshot or management-plan data, augmented with (rudimentary) inputs such as area, yield tables, survival probabilities, and roundwood prices, enables FESIM to simulate the five-year time-step development of stand areas, roundwood volumes, carbon pools, and key economic metrics. The model integrates a Markov chain area-transition module with parameterised sigmoid functions to project growth and harvesting volumes, which are then fed into a valuation module employing multi-tier contribution-margin accounting. This approach captures profitability at successive cost allocation levels, ranging from stumpage values to net returns, thereby enabling the quantification of opportunity costs associated with conservation-oriented practices and policies. Optional submodules address habitat-tree retention and the dynamics of coarse woody debris, thereby establishing a direct linkage between biodiversity and carbon, on the one hand, and economic outputs, on the other. Crucially, the model overcomes the challenges of data-scarce regions by integrating pre-processed data, such as parameterised yield tables, effectively leveraging prior knowledge to ensure robust application.