Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and the global ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributors. Here we present datasets for times series of the SLB and OMB elements developed in the framework of ESA's Climate Change Initiative. We use these datasets to assess the SLB and the OMB simultaneously, utilising a consistent framework of uncertainty characterisation. The time series, given at monthly sampling and available at https://doi.org/10.5285/17c2ce31784048de93996275ee976fff (Horwath et al., 2021), include global mean sea-level (GMSL) anomalies from satellite altimetry, the global mean steric component from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data, the ocean-mass component from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravimetry, the contribution from global glacier mass changes assessed by a global glacier model, the contribution from Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass changes assessed by satellite radar altimetry and by GRACE, and the contribution from land water storage anomalies assessed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP (Water Global Assessment and Prognosis). Over the period January 1993–December 2016 (P1, covered by the satellite altimetry records), the mean rate (linear trend) of GMSL is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm yr⁻¹. The steric component is 1.15 ± 0.12 mm yr⁻¹ (38 % of the GMSL trend), and the mass component is 1.75 ± 0.12 mm yr⁻¹ (57 %). The mass component includes 0.64 ± 0.03 mm yr⁻¹ (21 % of the GMSL trend) from glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica, 0.60 ± 0.04 mm yr⁻¹ (20 %) from Greenland, 0.19 ± 0.04 mm yr⁻¹ (6 %) from Antarctica, and 0.32 ± 0.10 mm yr⁻¹ (10 %) from changes of land water storage. In the period January 2003–August 2016 (P2, covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system), GMSL rise is higher than in P1 at 3.64 ± 0.26 mm yr⁻¹. This is due to an increase of the mass contributions, now about 2.40 ± 0.13 mm yr⁻¹ (66 % of the GMSL trend), with the largest increase contributed from Greenland, while the steric contribution remained similar at 1.19 ± 0.17 mm yr⁻¹ (now 33 %). The SLB of linear trends is closed for P1 and P2; that is, the GMSL trend agrees with the sum of the steric and mass components within their combined uncertainties. The OMB, which can be evaluated only for P2, shows that our preferred GRACE-based estimate of the ocean-mass trend agrees with the sum of mass contributions within 1.5 times or 0.8 times the combined 1σ uncertainties, depending on the way of assessing the mass contributions. Combined uncertainties (1σ) of the elements involved in the budgets are between 0.29 and 0.42 mm yr⁻¹, on the order of 10 % of GMSL rise. Interannual variations that overlie the long-term trends are coherently represented by the elements of the SLB and the OMB. Even at the level of monthly anomalies the budgets are closed within uncertainties, while also indicating possible origins of remaining misclosures.

Regional sea-level rise is characterized by decadal acceleration and deceleration periods that typically stem from oceanic climate variability. Here, we investigate decadal sea-level trends during the altimetry era and pin down the associated ocean circulation changes. We find that decadal subpolar gyre cooling (warming), strengthening (weakening), widening (shrinking) since the mid-2000s (early 1990s) resulted in negative (positive) sea level trends of −7.1 mm/yr ± 1.3 mm/yr (3.9 mm/yr ± 1.5 mm/yr). These large-scale changes further coincide with steric sea-level trends, and are driven by decadal-scale ocean circulation variability. Sea level on the European shelf, however, is found to correlate well with along-slope winds (R = 0.78), suggesting it plays a central role in driving the associated low-frequency dynamic sea level variability. Furthermore, when the North Atlantic is in a cooling (warming) period, the winds along the eastern boundary are predominantly from the North (South), which jointly drive a slowdown (rapid increase) in shelf and coastal sea level rise. Understanding the mechanisms that produce these connections may be critical for interpreting future regional sea-level trends.

Northern European sea levels show a non-stationary link to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The location of the centers of the NAO dipole, however, can be affected through the interplay with the East Atlantic (EAP) and the Scandinavian (SCAN) teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the binary combination of the NAO with the EAP/SCAN for better understanding the non-stationary drivers inducing sea level variations along the European coasts. By combining altimetry and tide gauges, we find that anomalously high monthly sea levels along the Norwegian (North Sea) coast are predominantly governed by same positive phase NAO+/EAP+ (NAO+/SCAN+) type of atmospheric circulation, while the Newlyn and Brest tide gauges respond markedly to the opposite phase NAO−/EAP+ combination. Despite these regional differences, we find that coherent European sea level changes project onto a pattern resembling NAO+/SCAN+, which is signified by pressure anomalies over Scandinavia and southern Europe forcing winds to trace the continental slope, resulting in a pile-up of water along the European coasts through Ekman transport. We conclude that taking into consideration the interaction between these atmospheric circulation regimes is valuable and may help to understand the time-varying relationship between the NAO and European mean sea level.

Changes to mean sea level and/or sea level extremes (e.g., storm surges) will lead to changes in coastal impacts. These changes represent a changing exposure or risk to our society. Here, we present 21st century sea-level projections for Norway largely based on the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC AR5). An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. We therefore pay special attention to vertical land motion, which is constrained using new geodetic observations with improved spatial coverage and accuracies, and modelling work. Projected ensemble mean 21st century relative sea-level changes for Norway are, depending on location, from −0.10 to 0.30 m for emission scenario RCP2.6; 0.00 to 0.35 m for RCP 4.5; and 0.15 to 0.55 m for RCP8.5. For all RCPs, the projected ensemble mean indicates that the vast majority of the Norwegian coast will experience a rise in sea level. Norway’s official return heights for extreme sea levels are estimated using the average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method. We adapt an approach for calculating sea level allowances for use with the ACER method. All the allowances calculated give values above the projected ensemble mean Relative Sea Level (RSL) rise, i.e., to preserve the likelihood of flooding from extreme sea levels, a height increase above the most likely RSL rise should be used in planning. We also show that the likelihood of exceeding present-day return heights will dramatically increase with sea-level rise.

Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB) corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.