Outdoor air pollution, particularly volatile organic compounds (VOCs), significantly contributes to the global health burden. Previous analyses of VOC exposure have typically focused on regional and national scales, thereby limiting global health burden assessments. In this study, we utilized a global chemistry-climate model to simulate VOC distributions and estimate related cancer risks from 2000 to 2019. Our findings indicated a 10.2% rise in global VOC emissions during this period, with substantial increases in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Rest of Asia, and China, but decreases in the U.S. and Europe due to reductions in the transportation and residential sectors. Carcinogenic VOCs such as benzene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde contributed to a lifetime cancer burden affecting 0.60 [95% confidence interval (95CI): 0.40–0.81] to 0.85 [95CI: 0.56–1.14] million individuals globally. We projected that between 36.4% and 39.7% of the global population was exposed to harmful VOC levels, with the highest exposure rates found in China (82.8–84.3%) and considerably lower exposure in Europe (1.7–5.8%). Open agricultural burning in less-developed regions amplified VOC-induced cancer burdens. Significant disparities in cancer burdens between high-income and low-to-middle-income countries were identified throughout the study period, primarily due to unequal population growth and VOC emissions. These findings underscore health disparities among different income nations and emphasize the persistent need to address the environmental injustice related to air pollution exposure.

Carbonaceous aerosols including organic carbon and black carbon have significant implications for both climate and air quality. In the current global climate or chemical transport models, a fixed hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion lifetime for carbonaceous aerosol (τ) is generally assumed, which is usually around one day. We have implemented a new detailed aging scheme for carbonaceous aerosols in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to account for both the chemical oxidation and the physical condensation-coagulation effects, where τ is affected by local atmospheric environment including atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, ozone, hydroxyl radical and sulfuric acid. The updated τ exhibits large spatial and temporal variations with the global average (up to 11 km altitude) calculated to be 2.6 days. The chemical aging effects are found to be strongest over the tropical regions driven by the low ozone concentrations and high humidity there. The τ resulted from chemical aging generally decreases with altitude due to increases in ozone concentration and decreases in humidity. The condensation-coagulation effects are found to be most important for the high-latitude areas, in particular the polar regions, where the τ values are calculated to be up to 15 days. When both the chemical aging and condensation-coagulation effects are considered, the total atmospheric burdens and global average lifetimes of BC, black carbon, (OC, organic carbon) are calculated to increase by 9% (3%) compared to the control simulation, with considerable enhancements of BC and OC concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. Model evaluations against data from multiple datasets show that the updated aging scheme improves model simulations of carbonaceous aerosols for some regions, especially for the remote areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The improvement helps explain the persistent low model bias for carbonaceous aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere reported in literature. Further model sensitivity simulations focusing on the continental outflow of carbonaceous aerosols demonstrate that previous studies using the old aging scheme could have significantly underestimated the intercontinental transport of carbonaceous aerosols.

The global gasoline and diesel fuel vehicle fleets impose substantial impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. Here we quantify the global radiative forcing and human health impacts of the global gasoline and diesel sectors using the NCAR CESM global chemistry‐climate model for year 2015 emissions from the IIASA GAINS inventory. Net global radiative effects of short‐lived climate forcers (including aerosols, ozone, and methane) from the gasoline and diesel sectors are +13.6 and +9.4 mW m⁻², respectively. The annual mean net aerosol contributions to the net radiative effects of gasoline and diesel are −9.6 ± 2.0 and +8.8 ± 5.8 mW m⁻². Aerosol indirect effects for the gasoline and diesel road vehicle sectors are −16.6 ± 2.1 and −40.6 ± 4.0 mW m⁻². The fractional contributions of short‐lived climate forcers to the total global climate impact including carbon dioxide on the 20‐year time scale are similar, 14.9% and 14.4% for gasoline and diesel, respectively. Global annual total PM_2.5‐ and ozone‐induced premature deaths for gasoline and diesel sectors approach 115,000 (95% CI: 69,000–153,600) and 122,100 (95% CI: 78,500–157,500), with corresponding years of life lost of 2.10 (95% CI: 1.23–2.66) and 2.21 (95% CI: 1.47–2.85) million years. Substantial regional variability of premature death rates is found for the diesel sector when the regional health effects are normalized by the annual total regional vehicle distance traveled. Regional premature death rates for the gasoline and diesel sectors, respectively, vary by a factor of eight and two orders of magnitude, with India showing the highest for both gasoline and diesel sectors.