Drought is a natural hazard with critical societal and economic consequences to millions of people around the world. In this paper, we present the climatology of severe drought events that occurred during the 20th century in the region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. To account for the effects of rainfall deficit and changes in temperature at a climatic timescale, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify severe droughts over the city of Sao Paulo, and the eastern and central-western regions of the state. Events were identified using weather station data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data, in order to assess the representation of drought periods in both datasets. Results show that the reanalysis seems suitable to represent the number of events and their mean duration, severity and intensity, but the timing and characteristics of individual events are not well reproduced. The correlation between observation and reanalysis SPEI time series is low to moderate in all cases. A linear trend analysis between 1901 and 2010 shows a tendency of increasing (decreasing) severe drought events in the central and western (eastern) Sao Paulo state, according to observational data. This is in agreement with previous findings, and the reanalysis presents this same signal. The weakened trend values in the reanalysis may be associated with issues in representing precipitation in this dataset.

Resumo Os sistemas meteorológicos que ocasionam tempestades acompanhadas de ventos fortes, como frentes frias e ciclones extratropicais e subtropicais, muitas vezes interferem na condição de agitação do mar. Como consequência, o nível do mar pode se elevar extraordinariamente causando inundações na costa. Os anos de 2015 e 2016 foram caracterizados pela ocorrência da fase positiva do fenômeno El Niño - Oscilação Sul, com intensidade muito forte. O Sul do Brasil apresentou maiores condições de instabilidade atmosférica, com frequentes passagens de sistemas frontais e formação de ciclones extratropicais, interferindo nas condições de mar do litoral Sul e do Sudeste do Brasil. Diante do exposto, este estudo objetivou avaliar as condições atmosféricas durante eventos de ressaca no litoral Sul e do Sudeste do Brasil durante o El Niño 2015/2016, através de informações presentes nos Avisos de Mau Tempo, emitidos pelo Centro de Hidrografia da Marinha do Brasil. Por meio desses avisos e dos dados de reanálise do ERA-Interim, foram analisadas as distribuições por área marítima, por mês e por estação do ano, bem como foi realizada a análise de campos sinóticos plotados em superfície para os 12 eventos de maior destaque. Como resultados, os meses de outono e de inverno registraram as maiores ocorrências de ressaca em ambas as áreas, durante o período do El Niño 2015/2016. De um modo geral, quatro padrões atmosféricos favoráveis aos eventos de ressaca foram identificados, em função da atuação de ciclones extratropicais e a atuação de sistemas de alta pressão pós-frontal.

Earth's weather and climate are strongly influenced by synoptic scale systems such as extratropical cyclones. From this point of view, investigating the mechanisms associated with cyclogenesis, such as baroclinic instability (BI), which are defined by the thermal gradient and wind shear, are extremely important. However, atmospheric teleconnection patterns such as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon may affect BI in the preferred region of extratropical cyclones, known as the storm track (ST) region. Therefore, the present study shows the impact of ENSO on BI and STs in the Southern Hemisphere. BI is determined by means of the Eady growth rate method, while the STs are calculated from the kinetic energy and by means of the meridional heat transport. In general, the results show that STs calculated from the BI and the kinetic energy show seasonal variability during ENSO events. This results in Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones being more intense with trajectories towards lower (higher) latitudes during El Niño (La Niña) summers. In contrast, little difference is seen in El Niño and La Niña winters. For the calculation of the meridional heat transport at 500 hPa, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis produced weaker transport relative to ERA‐Interim and previous studies.

The wind stress is a measure of momentum transfer due to the relative motion between the atmosphere and the ocean. This study aims to investigate the anomalous pattern of atmospheric and oceanic circulations due to 50% increase in the wind stress over the equatorial region and the Southern Ocean. In this paper we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity (SPEEDO). The results show that the intensification of equatorial wind stress causes a decrease in sea surface temperature in the tropical region due to increased upwelling and evaporative cooling. On the other hand, the intensification of wind stress over the Southern Ocean induces a regional increase in the air and sea surface temperatures which in turn leads to a reduction in Antarctic sea ice thickness. This occurs in association with changes in the global thermohaline circulation strengthening the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water formation and a weakening of the North Atlantic Deep Water. Moreover, changes in the Southern Hemisphere thermal gradient lead to modified atmospheric and oceanic heat transports reducing the storm tracks and baroclinic activity.