Increasing anthropogenic activities have significantly altered ecosystems in arid oasis regions. Estimating the impact on a wide range of ecosystem services is important for decision making and the sustainable development of these regions. This study analyzed time-series Landsat data to determine the influences of oasis land-use changes on the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region in Northwest China. The following results were found. The total value of the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region were approximately $10,845.3, $11,218.6, $10,291.7, and $10,127.3 million in 1986, 1996, 2005, and 2015, respectively. The water supply, waste treatment, biodiversity protection, and recreation and cultural services were the four ecosystem services with the highest service value, contributing 77.05% of the total ecosystem services. The combined contribution rate of food production and raw material value was only about 4.02%, relatively small. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the estimated total ecosystem service value (ESV) for this study area was relatively inelastic with respect to the value coefficients. The findings of this study will be crucial for maintaining the stability and sustainable development of the oasis region, where socio-economic development and the integrity of the natural ecosystem complement each other. Furthermore, the results provide a scientific basis for decision makers in land use management, and provide a reference for researchers in the Northwest China.

The growing urbanization of oasis cities in arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China has an adverse influence on the fragile local ecological system. Therefore, improved understanding of the coupling and coordination between urban expansion (UE) and ecosystem services value (ESv) is critical to long term sustainable development. Here, we study the urbanization trend of a typical oasis city of Northwest China (Kashgar) using Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI imagery from 1990 to 2015. Land use types are classified and the spatio-temporal features of UE are analyzed; ESv of each land use types and the ecosystem services function (ESf) are determined; the driving factors of UE and the spatio-temporal change of ESv are analyzed; and the coupling and coordination relationship between UE and ESv is quantitatively determined. Results show that: (1) The land use structure has changed significantly between 1990 and 2015, with construction land (40.51 km²) showing the highest growth and farmland (28.42 km²). (2) UE values during 2000–2005 (16.65 km²) and 2010–2015 (21.09 km²) are relatively large, and during 1990–2015, the city extended from the center to the outskirts at a dynamic growth rate of 13.17% and a comprehensive expansion index of 1.54‰. (3) The total ESv was reduced by CNY 35.76 million (USD ~ 5.26 million), ranked from high to low as: waste treatment (CNY 9.94 million, USD ~1.46 million), water source conservation (CNY 7.95 million, USD ~ 1.17 million), soil formation (CNY 4.60 million, USD ~ 0.68 million), biodiversity protection (CNY 3.37 million, USD ~ 0.5 million), climate regulation (CNY 3.15 million, USD ~ 0.46 million), food production (CNY 2.83 million, USD ~ 0.42 million), gas regulation (CNY 1.96 million, USD ~ 0.29 million), entertainment and leisure (CNY 1.26 million, USD ~ 0.19 million), and raw materials (CNY 0.68 million, USD ~ 0.1 million). (4) The coupling degree between UE and ESv is relatively small (<0.5), though this value has increased yearly. The coordination degree between UE and ESv is relatively low, indicating that UE already poses a serious danger to the ecological environment. (5) The rapid growth of the population and economy and government policies are the main driving factors of intensive UE. Increasing climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, and runoff impact ESv in some positive ways whereas UE leads to a reduction of ESv. Our results here can help to guide long-term sustainable development of arid regions, reasonable urban planning of oasis cities, and protection of the local ecological environment.

Modeling land use and land cover (LULC) change is important for understanding its spatiotemporal trends and plays a crucial role in land use planning and natural resources management. To this end, this study assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the LULC changes in Urumqi city between 1980 and 2020. In addition, future LULC was successfully projected for 2030 and 2050 under different scenarios based on the FLUS model. This model was validated using actual and simulated land use data for 2020. The kappa coefficient and figure of merit of the simulation results for 2020 were 0.87 and 0.114, respectively, indicating that the simulation accuracy was satisfactory. The results demonstrated that grassland was the major land use type, with the area accounting for more than 50% of the study area. From 1980 to 2020, urban land greatly expanded, while grassland decreased significantly. Urban land increased from 353.51 km² to 884.27 km², while grassland decreased from 7903.4 km² to 7414.92 km² from 1980 to 2020. In addition, significant transitions mainly occurred between grasslands, cultivated lands and urban lands. Grassland and cultivated land were converted into urban land, resulting in rapid urban expansion over the last 40 years. From 1990 to 2000, grassland was converted into urban land with an area of 341.08 km². Finally, the simulation results of the LULC showed that urban land is expected to increase under all three scenarios, and cultivated land, grassland and forest land are effectively protected under the Cultivated Land Protection Scenario (CPS) and Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) compared to the Baseline Scenario (BLS). This study assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics and transitions of LULC between 1980 and 2020, and successfully projected LULC for 2035 and 2050 in Urumqi City in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China based on the FLUS model, which has not been investigated in previous studies.

In this study, we used long time series Landsat data and ecosystem services coefficients for global and Chinese ecosystems during 1978–2018 to estimate the influences of land-use change on ecosystem services (ES) in Kaidu–Kongque River Basin (KKRB), where both socioeconomic progress and the arid, fragile natural environment have considerable affected land-use change. The results showed that (1) the total value of ES in the KKRB was about USD 8111.5, 7995.31, 8275.74, 8131.91, and 8016.38 million in 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018, respectively. The net ecosystem service value (ESV) loss was about USD 116.19 million for 1978–1988, the net ESV profit was about USD 280.43 million for 1988–1998, and the net ESV loss was about USD 259.36 million for 1998–2018. (2) Water supply and waste treatment function were the top two ecological functions with high service value; their combined contribution rate was 59.3%, indicating that the regulating service function in this study area is higher than the provision services function. (3) The high to low ranking for each ecosystem function based on their contribution rate to overall ES value was water supply > waste treatment > climate regulation > biodiversity protection > recreation and culture > soil formation > gas regulation > food production > raw material. These results are significant for the continuation of the integrity and sustainability of the mountain–oasis–desert region ecosystem, where socioeconomic progress and the fragile characteristics of the natural ecosystem complement each other. The results of this study provide scientific evidence for governmental decision makers and local residents and offer a reference for environmental researchers in northwest China.

The main objective of protecting ecosystems and enhancing the supply of ecosystem services (ESs) is to quantify the value of ecological services. This article calculates the ecological service value (ESV) of the Tarim Basin over the past 40 years using the improved benefits transfer method of satellite remote sensing data, such as Landsat, analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV, and studies the driving mechanism of ESV changes using GeoDetector. Finally, the FLUS model was selected to predict the ecosystem service value until 2030, setting up three scenarios: the Baseline Scenario (BLS), the Cultivated Land Protection Scenario (CPS), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS). The results indicate that (1) the ESV in the Tarim Basin decreased by USD 1248.21 million (−2.29%) from 1980 to 2020. The top three contributors are water bodies, wetlands, and grassland. (2) Waste treatment and water supply functions had the highest service value, accounting for 44.53% of the total contribution. The rank order of ecosystem functions in terms of their contribution to the total value of ESV was as follows, refining from high to low importance: water supply, waste treatment, biodiversity protection, climate regulation, soil formation, recreation and culture, gas regulation, food production, raw material. (3) The spatial differentiation driving factors of ESV were detected, with the following Q-values in descending order: net primary productivity (NPP) > normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) > precipitation > aspect > temperature > slope > soil erosion > GDP > land use intensity > per capita GDP > population > human activity index. (4) The ESVs simulated under the three scenarios (BLS, CPS, and EPS) for 2030 were USD 51,133.9 million, USD 53,624.99 million, and USD 54,561.26 million, respectively. Compared with 2020, the ESVs of the three scenarios decreased as follows: BLS (USD 4209.33 million), CPS (USD 1718.24 million), and EPS USD (−781.97 million). These findings are significant for maintaining the integrity and sustainability of the large-scale ecosystem, where socioeconomic development and the fragile features of the natural ecosystem interact. Additionally, the study results provide a crucial foundation for governmental decision-makers, local residents, and environmental researchers in northwest China to promote sustainable development.

Lake water resources in arid areas play an important role in regional resource and environmental management. Therefore, to master the dynamic changes in lake water resources in arid areas, the laser altimetry satellite and land resource satellite were used to interpret the changes in water level and the areas of alpine lakes and non-alpine lakes. The dynamic changes in the lake and their relationship with glacial meltwater, precipitation, and runoff of the lake basin were analyzed using the unary linear regression equation, the ratio of glacier area to lake area (G–L ratio), and the ratio of lake basin area to lake area (supply coefficient). The results were as follows: the changes in alpine lakes were closely related to the supply coefficient (basin/lake area ratio) but weakly related to the G–L ratio (glacier/lake area ratio). In addition, the spatial pattern of lake change was consistent with that of climate change. There was a strong correlation between the lake, precipitation, and temperature during the snowmelt period. Thus, it can be seen that the changes in the lake were caused by precipitation, glacial melt, snowmelt, and other multi-factors. Therefore, this study on the changes in water resources in different types of lakes and their influencing factors provides data support for water resources managers to evaluate the health and sustainable utilization of the ecological environment.