This paper illustrates the quantitative estimation of specific risk (i.e., the product of hazard and vulnerability) for 39 buildings located upon the Ancona landslide based on the characterization of landslide kinematics presented in a companion paper. Hazard is quantified based on intensity, intended as the damaging potential of the kinetic and/or geometric attributes of the landslide, and is expressed in terms of expected exceedance of preset cumulative displacement thresholds for a set of five reference time intervals, ranging from 1 to 100 years. The estimation of hazard relies sequentially on (1) Monte Carlo simulation of displacement series, with sampling distributions of average yearly displacement defined on the basis of the statistical processing of inclinometer and radar interferometer data; and (2) the subsequent spatialization of displacement using radial basis interpolation as described in the companion paper. The vulnerability of the set of buildings relies on a quantitative model in which vulnerability is a function of landslide intensity and the resilience of the buildings. Resilience is a function of a set of indicators including structural type, age, and foundation type and is temporally variable due to the progressive structural degradation. Hazard, vulnerability, and specific risk are estimated for the set of five aforementioned reference time intervals. The magnitude and temporal dependence of hazard, vulnerability, and specific risk are assessed critically.

Random field modelling of soil variability allows significant statistical results to be inferred from field data; moreover, it provides a consistent framework for incorporating such variability in reliability-based design. Cone penetration testing (CPT) is increasingly appreciated because of its near-continuity and repeatability. Stress-normalised CPT parameters are included in widely used engineering procedures. Nonetheless, the results of variability analyses for these parameters are surprisingly limited. This paper attempts to characterise normalised cone tip resistance (qc1N) and friction ratio (FR) rigorously using a finite-scale weakly stationary random field model. It must be emphasised that inherent soil variability so determined strictly refers to the variability of the mechanical response of soils to cone penetration. The variability of soil response potentially depends on the failure mode (shear for sleeve friction or bearing for tip resistance) and most probably on the volume of soil influenced... La modélisation aléatoire sur le terrain de la variabilité d'un sol permet de déduire des résultats statistiques significatifs d'après les données de terrain ; de plus, elle donne un cadre de travail constant permettant d'incorporer une telle variabilité dans une conception basée sur la fiabilité. L'essai de pénétration de cône (CPT) est de plus en plus apprécié en raison de sa quasi-continuité et reproductibilité. Les paramètres CPT normalisés du point de vue de la contrainte sont inclus dans des procédures d'ingénierie très utilisées. Néanmoins, les résultats des analyses de variabilité pour ces paramètres sont étonnamment limités. Cet exposé essaie de caractériser rigoureusement la résistance de la pointe de coône normalisée (qc1N) et le taux de friction (FR) en utilisant un modèle de champs aléatoire faiblement stationnaire à échelle finie. Il faut souligner que la variabilité inhérente du sol ainsi déterminé se rapporte strictement à la variabilité de la réponse mécanique des sols à la pénétration de...