Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in carbon reduction and sequestration, and it is important to explore the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems under different land use scenarios to enhance the regional carbon storage potential. We analysed land use changes in the Loess Plateau, an important ecological barrier in China, from 2000 to 2020, used the PLUS model to predict land use patterns under different scenarios in 2035, and applied the InVEST model to assess carbon storage from 2000 to 2035. The findings were as follows: (1) Cropland in the study area decreased significantly from 2000 to 2020, and forests, waters, and construction land showed an increasing trend. The area of cropland further decreased under the natural growth and ecological protection scenarios, the area of grassland decreased significantly under the cropland protection scenario, and forests and waters were effectively protected under the natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in the Loess Plateau has increased by 28 Tg (0.56%) over the past 20 years. Compared with those in 2020, by 2035, carbon storage under the natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios will increase by 30, 44, and 21 Tg, respectively. (3) Carbon storage has obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high carbon density in the northern Qinling Mountains, Taihang Mountains, and Lvliang Mountains and low carbon density in Erdos City and its surrounding areas. Regional differences in carbon density are closely related to the spatial distribution of land use types. (4) Carbon storage showed an inverted V-shaped trend with the increase in elevation. Land use change is the main reason for the increase or decrease in carbon storage under different scenarios. Compared with the other two scenarios, the ecological protection scenario not only protects the ecological environment but also has a strong carbon storage potential, which may be significant for guiding the formulation of future land use planning on the Loess Plateau.

Rural land consolidation projects (RLCPs) have become one of the largest organized human activities to change land use patterns and impact terrestrial ecosystems, and it may also be an important precondition to improving ecosystem service value (ESV). Evaluating the change in ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important basis for measuring the effectiveness of RLCPs. Therefore, this paper, taking RLCPs implemented at County Level in Hubei Province, China, as an example, uses the improved ESV evaluation model to analyze the spatial differentiation of ESV change in RLCPs and then adopts geographic detectors and a geographically weighted regression model to identify the dominant factors affecting the ESV change in RLCPs. The results showed that (1) although RLCPs make the unevenness of land use obvious, they reduce the complexity of land use evidently and improve the dominance of land use significantly; (2) The ESV of RLCPs in 71 counties of Hubei Province increased, with an average increase of USD 2.37 × 10⁷ a⁻¹. The ESV increase is large in central Hubei, while small in eastern and western Hubei. However, the increase rate of ESV is high in eastern and central-north Hubei, while low in western and central-south Hubei. This indicates that RLCPs can effectively promote ESV, but there are significant regional differences, and (3) the ESV increase is positively correlated with GDP and construction scale, but negatively linked with investment and per capita income of rural residents. The ESV increase rate is negatively associated with cultivated land proportion and land use diversification index change, but it is positively related to the change in the land use evenness index. However, their driving effects have significant spatial heterogeneity.

Under the political dominance of urbanization, the policy of increasing versus decreasing balance (IVDB) between urban and rural construction land has had a profound influence on urban land expansion in China. The purpose of this study is to reveal the impact of the IVDB policy on the process of urban land expansion. Considering the transition process among different land use types under the IVDB policy, this study proposes two situations of urban land expansion. A future land use simulation (FLUS) model is applied to simulate the expansion process over three steps. A case study of Fenghua District in Ningbo City, China, shows the following: (1) In the first situation of village land directly transformed into urban land, the transformation is concentrated in the northern and western parts of Fenghua District. The expansion trends are particularly pronounced along existing urban land and main traffic lines. (2) In the second situation of village land reclamation for agricultural land and urban land occupation for agricultural land, the spatial differences in village land conversion to arable land or other agricultural land are relatively small, and the degree of concentration of arable land is significantly increased after reclamation. Urban land expansion mainly occurs close to Ningbo City. With the help of transfer quotas “produced” by other areas, expansion land can be balanced within Fenghua District. This research helps to shed light on the urban land use growth process and provides beneficial insights for stock spatial planning in China.