Green Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important indicator to reflect the trade-off between the ecosystem and economic system. Substantial research has mapped historical green GDP spatially. But few studies have concerned future variations of green GDP. In this study, we have calculated and mapped the spatial distribution of the green GDP by summing the ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP for China from 1990 to 2015. The pattern of land use change simulated by a CA-Markov model was used in the process of ESV prediction (with an average accuracy of 86%). On the other hand, based on the increasing trend of GDP during the period of 1990 to 2015, a regression model was built up to present time-series increases in GDP at prefecture-level cities, having an average value of R square (R2) of approximately 0.85 and significance level less than 0.05. The results indicated that (1) from 1990 to 2015, green GDP was increased, with a huge growth rate of 78%. Specifically, the ESV value was decreased slightly, while the GDP value was increased substantially. (2) Forecasted green GDP would increase by 194,978.29 billion yuan in 2050. Specifically, the future ESV will decline, while the rapidly increased GDP leads to the final increase in future green GDP. (3) According to our results, the spatial differences in green GDP for regions became more significant from 1990 to 2050.
21 March 2023 in Journal of Environmental Management
In this research, the concept of livability has been quantitatively and comprehensively reviewed and interpreted to contribute to spatial multi-objective land use optimization modelling. In addition, a multi-objective land use optimization model was constructed using goal programming and a weighted-sum approach, followed by a boundary-based genetic algorithm adapted to help address the spatial multi-objective land use optimization problem. Furthermore, the model is successfully and effectively applied to the case study in the Central Region of Queenstown Planning Area of Singapore towards livability. In the case study, the experiments based on equal weights and experiments based on different weights combination have been successfully conducted, which can demonstrate the effectiveness of the spatial multi-objective land use optimization model developed in this research as well as the robustness and reliability of computer-generated solutions. In addition, the comparison between the computer-generated solutions and the two real planned scenarios has also clearly demonstrated that our generated solutions are much better in terms of fitness values. Lastly, the limitation and future direction of this research have been discussed.
1 December 2019 in Journal of Environmental Management