Heatwaves cause excess mortality and physiological impacts on humans throughout the world, and climate change will intensify and increase the frequency of heat events. Many adaptation and mitigation studies use spatial distribution of highly vulnerable local populations to inform heat reduction and response plans. However, most available heat vulnerability studies focus on urban areas with high heat intensification by Urban Heat Islands (UHIs). Rural areas encompass different environmental and socioeconomic issues that require alternate analyses of vulnerability. We categorized Nebraska census tracts into four urbanization levels, then conducted factor analyses on each group and captured different patterns of socioeconomic vulnerabilities among resultant Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs). While disability is the major component of HVI in two urbanized classes, lower education, and races other than white have higher contributions in HVI for the two rural classes. To account for environmental vulnerability of HVI, we considered different land type combinations for each urban class based on their percentage areas and their differences in heat intensifications. Our results demonstrate different combinations of initial variables in heat vulnerability among urban classes of Nebraska and clustering of high and low heat vulnerable areas within the highest urbanized sections. Less urbanized areas show no spatial clustering of HVI. More studies with separation on urbanization level of residence can give insights into different socioeconomic vulnerability patterns in rural and urban areas, while also identifying changes in environmental variables that better capture heat intensification in rural settings.
Climate change has brought increasing attention to the assessment of health risks associated with climate and extreme events. Drought is a complex climate phenomenon that has been increasing in frequency and severity both locally and globally due to climate change. However, the health risks of drought are often overlooked, especially in places such as the United States, as the pathways to health impacts are complex and indirect. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the effects of monthly drought exposure on respiratory mortality for NOAA climate regions in the United States from 2000 to 2018. A two-stage model was applied to estimate the location-specific and overall effects of respiratory risk associated with two different drought indices over two timescales (the US Drought Monitor and the 6-month and 12-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index). During moderate and severe drought exposure, respiratory mortality risk ratio in the general population increased up to 6.0% (95% Cr: 4.8 to 7.2) in the Northeast, 9.0% (95% Cr: 4.9 to 13.3) in the Northern Rockies and Plains, 5.2% (95% Cr: 3.9 to 6.5) in the Ohio Valley, 3.5% (95% Cr: 1.9 to 5.0) in the Southeast, and 15.9% (95% Cr: 10.8 to 20.4) in the Upper Midwest. Our results showed that age, ethnicity, sex (both male and female), and urbanicity (both metro and non-metro) resulted in more affected population subgroups in certain climate regions. The magnitude and direction of respiratory risk ratio differed across NOAA climate regions. These results demonstrate a need for policymakers and communities to develop more effective strategies to mitigate the effects of drought across regions.
27 December 2019 in International Journal of Climatology
Climate regionalization is an inseparable part of many climate change and environmental studies. Delineating climatologically homogeneous regions enhances the utility of such studies and reduces the biases due to the uncertainties associated with climate model outputs at individual grid points which both lead to better understanding of the atmospheric mechanisms affecting a region's climate. Throughout time, researchers and statisticians have developed different methods to perform regionalization in which the techniques are highly dependent on the nature and accessibility of the data. This research aims to divide Bolivia into smaller, coherent climate subdivisions. To achieve this goal, we first apply the non‐hierarchical k‐means clustering method to climatologies of monthly accumulated precipitation and monthly average temperature separately using a gridded observation dataset for Bolivia spanning from 1979 to 2010. The clustering is performed on the two variables separately to avoid arbitrary attribute scaling and information redundancy as well as to gain a better understanding of these individual variables across Bolivia. Consensus clustering then finds the categorical intersection of the two independent clusters to create homogeneous climate regions. Results from this study show that Bolivia can be divided into 10 climatically distinguishable subdivisions largely explicable by topography and latitude, which are the key climate control factors in the region.
Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥30°C), both globally and locally. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat‐related illness (HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months from 2011 to 2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e., absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate change. Over 4 years (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015), we observed a significant decrease in the rate of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 3 out of 20 HRI visits are attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal (13.40% [IQR: −34.90,95.52]) and Piedmont (16.39% [IQR: −35.18,148.26]) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of HRI was significantly higher (78.65%: Coastal and 65.85%: Piedmont), assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate the need for evidence‐based public health interventions to protect human health from climate‐related exposures, like extreme heat, while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.
This study was conducted to examine, at the county level, the relationship between pediatric cancer incidence rate and atrazine and nitrate mean concentrations in surface and groundwater. A negative binomial regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between central nervous system (CNS) tumors, leukemia, lymphoma, and atrazine and nitrate mean concentrations in groundwater. The age‐adjusted brain and other CNS cancer incidence was higher than the national average in 63% of the Nebraska counties. After controlling for the counties socio‐economic status and nitrate concentrations in groundwater, counties with groundwater atrazine concentrations above 0.0002 µg/L had a higher incidence rate for pediatric cancers (brain and other CNS, leukemia, and lymphoma) compared to counties with groundwater atrazine concentrations in the reference group (0.0000–0.0002 µg/L). Additionally, compared to counties with groundwater nitrate concentrations between 0 and 2 mg/L (reference group), counties with groundwater nitrate concentrations between 2.1 and 5 mg/L (group 2) had a higher incidence rate for pediatric brain and other CNS cancers (IRR = 8.39; 95% CI: 8.24–8.54), leukemia (IRR = 7.35; 95% CI: 7.22–7.48), and lymphoma (IRR = 5.59; CI: 5.48–5.69) after adjusting for atrazine groundwater concentration and the county socio‐economic status. While these findings do not indicate a causal relationship, because other contaminants or cancer risk factors have not been accounted for, they suggest that atrazine and nitrate may pose a risk relative to the genesis of pediatric brain and CNS cancers, leukemia, and lymphoma.