Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran

Dr. Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran

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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

28Years (1999-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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20 June 2024 in Mathematics
Verified
Journal Article
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ALAna Lazcano
Ana Lazcano
MJMiguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
JSJulio E. Sandubete
Julio E. Sandubete
The economic time series prediction literature has seen an increase in research leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs), particularly the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and, more recently, transformer networks. These ANN models have shown superior accuracy compared to traditional techniques such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The most recent models in the prediction of this type of neural network, such as recurrent or Transformers models, are composed of complex architectures that require sufficient processing capacity to address the problems, while MLP is based on densely connected layers and supervised learning. A deep understanding of the limitations is necessary to appropriately choose the ideal model for each of the prediction tasks. In this article, we show how a simple architecture such as the MLP allows a better adjustment than other models, including a shorter prediction time. This research is based on the premise that the use of the most recent models will not always allow better results.

16 July 2020 in Water
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Journal Article
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MFMaría Isabel Fernández
María Isabel Fernández
PVPedro T. Martín de la Vega
Pedro T. Martín de la Vega
MJMiguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
MHMarcos Herrero
Marcos Herrero
Constructed wetlands are one of the best technologies for wastewater treatment in small towns, small businesses or farms and/or livestock breeding. In this work, a wastewater depuration ecological system implemented in a hybrid constructed wetland to remove nutrients and organic matter from small urban agglomerations is studied. It comprises two processing stages: a primary treatment carried out in two hydrolytic up-flow sludge bed digesters working in parallel and a secondary one made up of two vertical flow constructed wetlands, which are alternatively used, followed by a horizontal flow constructed wetland. An internal recirculation system connects the output of the vertical flow constructed wetlands to the input of the hydrolytic up-flow sludge bed digesters with the aim of promoting the nitrification-denitrification process. High nutrients and organic matter removal efficiencies were observed when treating highly polluted wastewater from an animal farm. Therefore, this ecological depuration system, designed with an internal recirculation to enhance nitrogen reduction, may be considered an efficient alternative to treat wastewater from small urban agglomerations and diffuse contamination from agricultural industries and livestock farms polluting surface waters with nitrates, which may cause serious environmental problems, such as eutrophication.

23 November 2021 in Energies
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MJMiguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
DMDaniel Fernández Martínez
Daniel Fernández Martínez
Agustin GarciaAgustin Garcia
Agustin Garcia
Diego Carmona FernándezDiego Carmona Fernández
Diego Carmona Fernández
European Union Allowances (EUAs) are rights to emit CO2 that may be sold or bought by enterprises. They were originally created to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, although they have become assets that may be used by financial intermediaries to seek for new business opportunities. Therefore, forecasting the time evolution of their price is very important for agents involved in their selling or buying. Neural Networks, an artificial intelligence paradigm, have been proved to be accurate and reliable tools for time series forecasting, and have been widely used to predict economic and energetic variables; two of them are used in this work, the Multilayer Preceptron (MLP) and the Long Short-Term Memories (LSTM), along with another artificial intelligence algorithm (XGBoost). They are combined with two preprocessing tools, decomposition of the time series into its trend and fluctuation and decomposition into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) by the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). The price prediction is obtained by adding those from each subseries. These two tools are combined with the three forecasting tools to provide 20 future predictions of EUA prices. The best results are provided by MLP-EMD, which is able to achieve a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.91% for the first predicted datum and 5.65% for the twentieth, with a mean value of 4.44%.

11 May 2022 in Sensors
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DMDaniel Fernández Martínez
Daniel Fernández Martínez
MJMiguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Short-term forecasting of electric energy consumption has become a critical issue for companies selling and buying electricity because of the fluctuating and rising trend of its price. Forecasting tools based on Artificial Intelligence have proved to provide accurate and reliable prediction, especially Neural Networks, which have been widely used and have become one of the preferred ones. In this work, two of them, Long Short-Term Memories and Gated Recurrent Units, have been used along with a preprocessing algorithm, the Empirical Mode Decomposition, to make up a hybrid model to predict the following 24 hourly consumptions (a whole day ahead) of a hospital. Two different datasets have been used to forecast them: a univariate one in which only consumptions are used and a multivariate one in which other three variables (reactive consumption, temperature, and humidity) have been also used. The results achieved show that the best performances were obtained with the multivariate dataset. In this scenario, the hybrid models (neural network with preprocessing) clearly outperformed the simple ones (only the neural network). Both neural models provided similar performances in all cases. The best results (Mean Absolute Percentage Error: 3.51% and Root Mean Square Error: 55.06) were obtained with the Long Short-Term Memory with preprocessing with the multivariate dataset.

30 September 2020 in Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues
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Agustin GarciaAgustin Garcia
Agustin Garcia
MJMiguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues is a peer-reviewed journal which publishes original research papers and case studies

22 November 2019 in Energies
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MJMiguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Miguel A. Jaramillo-Moran
Agustin GarciaAgustin Garcia
Agustin Garcia
In this paper, we forecast the price of CO2 emission allowances using an artificial intelligence tool: neural networks. We were able to provide confident predictions of several future prices by processing a set of past data. Different model structures were tested. The influence of subjective economic and political decisions on price evolution leads to complex behavior that is hard to forecast. We analyzed correlations with different economic variables related to the price of CO2 emission allowances and found the behavior of two to be similar: electricity prices and iron and steel prices. They, along with CO2 emission allowance prices, were included in the forecasting model in order to verify whether or not this improved forecasting accuracy. Only slight improvements were observed, which proved to be more significant when their respective time series trends or fluctuations were used instead of the original time series. These results show that there is some sort of link between the three variables, suggesting that the price of CO2 emission allowances is closely related to the time evolution of the price of electricity and that of iron and steel, which are very pollutant industrial sectors. This can be regarded as evidence that the CO2 market is working properly.