Aims: To investigate the incidence of major adverse ventricular arrhythmias and related events (MAREs) and to develop a stratification tool predicting MAREs in adults with a systemic right ventricle (sRV). Methods and results: In a multicentre approach, all adults (≥16 years old) with a sRV undergoing follow-up between 2000 and 2018 were identified. The incidence of MAREs, defined as sudden cardiac death, sustained ventricular tachycardia, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, was analysed. The association of MAREs with clinical, electrical, and echocardiographic parameters was evaluated. A total of 1184 patients (median age 27.1 years; interquartile range 19.9–34.9 years; 59% male; 70% with atrial switch repair for D-transposition of the great arteries) were included. The incidence of MAREs was 6.3 per 1000 patient-years. On multivariate analysis, age, history of heart failure, syncope, QRS duration, severe sRV dysfunction and at least moderate left ventricular outflow tract obstruction were retained in the final model with a C-index of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–0.83] and a calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.64–1.21). For every five ICDs implanted in patients with a 5-year MARE risk >10%, one patient may potentially be spared from a MARE. Conclusion: Sudden cardiac death remains a devastating cause of death in a contemporary adult cohort with a sRV. A prediction model based on clinical, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic parameters was devised to estimate MARE risk and to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from primary prevention ICD implantation.

Background and Aims: For patients with congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries (ccTGA), factors associated with progression to end-stage congestive heart failure (CHF) remain largely unclear. Methods: This multicentre, retrospective cohort study included adults with ccTGA seen at a congenital heart disease centre. Clinical data from initial and most recent visits were obtained. The composite primary outcome was mechanical circulatory support, heart transplantation, or death. Results: From 558 patients (48% female, age at first visit 36 ± 14.2 years, median follow-up 8.7 years), the event rate of the primary outcome was 15.4 per 1000 person-years (11 mechanical circulatory support implantations, 12 transplantations, and 52 deaths). Patients experiencing the primary outcome were older and more likely to have a history of atrial arrhythmia. The primary outcome was highest in those with both moderate/severe right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and tricuspid regurgitation (n = 110, 31 events) and uncommon in those with mild/less RV dysfunction and tricuspid regurgitation (n = 181, 13 events, P < .001). Outcomes were not different based on anatomic complexity and history of tricuspid valve surgery or of subpulmonic obstruction. New CHF admission or ventricular arrhythmia was associated with the primary outcome. Individuals who underwent childhood surgery had more adverse outcomes than age- and sex-matched controls. Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified older age, prior CHF admission, and severe RV dysfunction as independent predictors for the primary outcome. Conclusions: Patients with ccTGA have variable deterioration to end-stage heart failure or death over time, commonly between their fifth and sixth decades. Predictors include arrhythmic and CHF events and severe RV dysfunction but not anatomy or need for tricuspid valve surgery.

Survival prospects in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD), although improved in recent decades, still remain below expectations for the general population. Patients and their loved ones benefit from preparation for both unexpected and predictable deaths, sometimes preceded by a prolonged period of declining health. Hence, advance care planning (ACP) is an integral part of comprehensive care for adults with CHD. This position paper summarizes evidence regarding benefits of and patients’ preferences for ACP and provides practical advice regarding the implementation of ACP processes within clinical adult CHD practice. We suggest that ACP be delivered as a structured process across different stages, with content dependent upon the anticipated disease progression. We acknowledge potential barriers to initiate ACP discussions and emphasize the importance of a sensitive and situation-specific communication style. Conclusions presented in this article reflect agreed expert opinions and include both patient and provider perspectives.

Aims: Patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) are a potentially vulnerable patient cohort in case of COVID-19. Some cardiac defects may be associated with a poor COVID-19 outcome. Risk estimation in ACHD is currently based on expert opinion. The aim of this study was to collect clinical outcome data and to identify risk factors for a complicated course of COVID-19 in patients with ACHD.Methods: Twenty-five ACHD centres in nine European countries participated in the study. Consecutive patients with ACHD diagnosed with COVID-19 presenting to one of the participating centres between 27 March and 6 June 2020 were included. A complicated disease course was defined as hospitalisation for COVID-19 requiring non-invasive or invasive ventilation and/or inotropic support, or a fatal outcome.Results: Of 105 patients with a mean age of 38±13 years (58% women), 13 had a complicated disease course, of whom 5 died. In univariable analysis, age (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7, per 5 years), ≥2 comorbidities (OR 7.1, 95% CI 2.1 to 24.5), body mass index of >25 kg/m² (OR 7.2, 95% CI 1.9 to 28.3) and cyanotic heart disease (OR 13.2, 95% CI 2.5 to 68.4) were associated with a complicated disease course. In a multivariable logistic regression model, cyanotic heart disease was the most important predictor (OR 60.0, 95% CI 7.6 to 474.0).Conclusions: Among patients with ACHD, general risk factors (age, obesity and multiple comorbidities) are associated with an increased risk of complicated COVID-19 course. Congenital cardiac defects at particularly high risk were cyanotic lesions, including unrepaired cyanotic defects or Eisenmenger syndrome.

Objectives To develop, calibrate, test and validate a logistic regression model for accurate risk prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and non-fatal sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD), based on baseline lesion-specific risk stratification and individual’s characteristics, to guide primary prevention strategies. Methods We combined data from a single-centre cohort of 3311 consecutive ACHD patients (50% male) at 25-year follow-up with 71 events (53 SCD and 18 non-fatal SCA) and a multicentre case–control group with 207 cases (110 SCD and 97 non-fatal SCA) and 2287 consecutive controls (50% males). Cumulative incidences of events up to 20 years for specific lesions were determined in the prospective cohort. Risk model and its 5-year risk predictions were derived by logistic regression modelling, using separate development (18 centres: 144 cases and 1501 controls) and validation (two centres: 63 cases and 786 controls) datasets. Results According to the combined SCD/SCA cumulative 20 years incidence, a lesion-specific stratification into four clusters—very-low (12%)—was built. Multivariable predictors were lesion-specific cluster, young age, male sex, unexplained syncope, ischaemic heart disease, non-life threatening ventricular arrhythmias, QRS duration and ventricular systolic dysfunction or hypertrophy. The model very accurately discriminated (C-index 0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and calibrated (p=0.3 for observed vs expected proportions) in the validation dataset. Compared with current guidelines approach, sensitivity increases 29% with less than 1% change in specificity. Conclusions Predicting the risk of SCD/SCA in ACHD can be significantly improved using a baseline lesion-specific stratification and simple clinical variables.