The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is the highest and largest permafrost area in the middle and low latitudes of China. In this region, permafrost thaw settlement is the main form of expressway subgrade disaster. Therefore, the quantitative analysis and regionalization study of permafrost thaw settlement deformation are of great significance for expressway construction and maintenance in the Qinghai–Tibet region. This paper establishes a thaw settlement prediction model using the thaw settlement coefficient and thaw depth. The thaw depth was predicted by the mean annual ground temperatures and active-layer thicknesses using the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network model, and the thaw settlement coefficient was determined according to the type of ice content. Further, the distribution characteristics of thaw settlement risk of the permafrost subgrade in the study region were mapped and analyzed. The results showed that the thaw settlement risk was able to be divided into four risk levels, namely significant risk, high risk, medium risk and low risk levels, with the areas of these four risk levels covering 3868.67 km², 1594.21 km², 2456.10 km² and 558.78 km², respectively, of the total study region. The significant risk level had the highest proportion among all the risk levels and was mainly distributed across the Chumar River Basin, Beiluhe River Basin and Gaerqu River Basin regions. Moreover, ice content was found to be the main factor affecting thaw settlement, with thaw settlement found to increase as the ice content increased.

Quantitative studies of the heat transfer mechanism of permafrost subgrades and its effect on the permafrost under the subgrade are crucial for the study of permafrost subgrade disposal measures; however, few studies have been conducted in this area. In the present work, by quantitatively analyzing the permafrost subgrade heat transfer mechanism and the variations in the underlying permafrost, the preliminary parameters of the interface heat control method—such as the application period, position, and imported cold energy quantity—are determined. The cooling effects of the ideal interface heat control method for different application schemes are analyzed. Finally, by determining the optimized temporal inhomogeneous interface energy control strategy, the required inlet velocity and artificial permafrost table for a mechanical ventilation permafrost subgrade are calculated and compared. The results show that (1) the suitable cold energy application position and period are a 0.5 m interface above the subgrade bottom and the lower thaw season, respectively, and that the imported cold energy needs to vary within the subgrade service life; (2) by adopting interface heat control measures, the maximum difference between the artificial permafrost table under the subgrade and the nearby natural ground table is only 0.097 m, and the temperature of the underlying permafrost and the area of the thawing bowl are significantly reduced; and (3) the mechanical ventilation subgrade employing the cold energy importing strategy of the interface heat control parameter also achieves a protection effect for permafrost, but as the cold air inside the ventilation pipe is gradually heated, it is necessary to amplify the inlet air speed to a certain extent for a better cooling effect.

As a result of global warming, the thawing settlement disasters of permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC) have intensified, which has serious effects on the safe operation of permafrost highway engineering. In this work, a prediction model for the thawing depth of permafrost subgrade in the QTEC under the climate warming scenario was established. Based on the survey results of permafrost ice content along the QTEC and the classification of thawing settlement risks, the zoning characteristics of thawing settlement of permafrost subgrade in the QTEC were obtained and analyzed. The results showed that the thawing depth of permafrost underlying the 26 m width subgrade in the QTEC will mainly remain below 9 m, and the area with a thawing depth of 6~9 m will have the widest spread within the next 20 years. The thawing settlement will be between 0.02 m and 5.45 m, with an average value of about 0.93 m after 20 years. Furthermore, after 50 years, the thawing depth of permafrost underlying the 26 m width subgrade will almost always be greater than 9 m, and the average thawing settlement will be about 1.12 m. Within the next 20 to 50 years, the risk of permafrost subgrade thawing settlement in the QTEC will be the most significant risk type, and this effect will mainly be distributed in the Kunlun Mountains, Chumar River Plain, Kekexili Mountains, Beiluhe Basin, Tanggula Mountains and intermountain Basins.

Due to climate change and seasonal precipitation, water conditions in the Qinghai–Tibet region are a significant factor affecting the stability of subgrades. The accumulation of large amounts of surface water leads to subgrade diseases along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway. Based on remote sensing photos obtained from Google Earth Engine and processing the photos using ENVI 5.6.3 and CAD 2019 software, this paper analyzed the distribution characteristics of surface water and studied the impact of roadside ponding on subgrade diseases. The results showed that the total area of surface water was more than 3.7 million m², and the surface water was most widely distributed in large river areas such as the Tuotuo River and Buqu River. The subgrade diseases of the Qinghai–Tibet Highway could be categorized into three types: settlement, longitudinal crack, and frost boiling, which accounted for 71.09%, 17.13%, and 11.78% of the total number of subgrade diseases, respectively. Additionally, the ground mean annual temperature was an important factor affecting the distribution of surface water, with the surface water area showing an increasing trend with the increase in ground mean annual temperature, and roadside ponding was most likely to form in the high-temperature extremely unstable permafrost area.

Thaw settlement (TS) in warm and ice-rich permafrost presents a challenge to highway subgrade stability in the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC). To conduct a regional risk assessment, this study develops a framework coupling multi-source data fusion with Random Forest (RF) machine learning. By connecting site-specific thermo-mechanical simulations with corridor-scale remote sensing predictors, a 30 m resolution thaw settlement zoning map for 13 m wide separated subgrades was generated. The results indicate the following: (1) Thaw settlement exhibits significant spatial variability, with Level III settlement (20–30 cm) being the dominant category, accounting for 40.85% of the total area; Level IV and V settlements are mainly distributed in warm and ice-rich permafrost regions such as the Chumar River, Wuli, and Tuotuo River areas. (2) Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and ice content type (ICT) are key factors influencing the spatial settlement pattern, with differentiated dominant mechanisms: 50% of the zones are dominated by ICT, corresponding to higher settlement (26.76–43.31 cm); 35.71% are influenced by both MAGT and ICT; and 14.29% are dominated by MAGT, with lower settlement (16.23–24.19 cm). This suggests a distinct spatial pattern where “high-temperature zones are largely controlled by ice content, while low-temperature zones are controlled by temperature.” (3) Among multi-source remote sensing factors, land surface temperature (LST) and the thawing index (TI) show significant correlations with thaw settlement, confirming their applicability for hazard identification in high-altitude regions. This study provides a scientific reference and decision support for engineering maintenance and route selection on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

The sunny–shady slope effect (SSSE) disrupts the thermal balance of permafrost subgrades, resulting in asymmetric thaw plates that lead to structural deformations such as longitudinal cracking and slope instability along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway (QTH). This study proposes three morphological indicators—road shoulder thawing depth difference (RSTDD), offset distance (OD), and active layer thickness difference (ALTD)—to quantitatively characterize the asymmetry of thaw plates. Through integrating remote sensing data and large-scale geological survey results with an earth–atmosphere coupled numerical model and a random forest (RF) prediction framework, we assessed the spatial distribution of thaw asymmetry along the permafrost section of the QTH. The results indicate the following: (1) The ALTD values are overall very small and almost unaffected by the SSSE. The RSTDD increases with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) before stabilizing, while the OD shows no significant response to the MAGT. The RSTDD and OD ranges are 0–3.38 m and 0–8.65 m, respectively, and they are greatly affected by the SSSE. (2) The RSTDD and OD show obvious spatial differences in different geographical regions of the QTH. An RSTDD greater than 2 m is concentrated in the Xidatan Faulted Basin and Chumar River High Plain. An OD greater than 3 m is mainly distributed from the Chumar River High Plain to the Tongtian River Basin. (4) The RSTDD and OD are most affected by subgrade orientation with importance values of 49.84% and 51.80%, respectively. The importance of the effect of mean average ground temperature (MAGT) on the active layer thickness is 80.58%.