Climate change could pose a significant threat to the energy sector in various countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term impact of changes in precipitation and water availability on hydroelectric production. To do so, the study focuses on three hydroelectric power plants in Southern Spain combining climatological, technical and economic data and projections. A physical model has been designed that reproduces the plants’ operations and incorporates various scenarios for the evolution of contributions to the basin. The results predict a 10 to 49% drop in production by the end of the century, depending on the plant and scenario. This decrease in production, in accordance with our economic and operational hypotheses, would significantly affect the operating margins of the facilities and, in certain scenarios, could reach an economically unsustainable level by the end of the century. An investment analysis has been carried out as well, showing that climate change may jeopardize future investments in similar facilities.
Net-zero pledges have become a paradigm of ambitious climate change action for companies, governments, and other organisations. However, there is no international standard or criteria to assess whether those commitments are feasible or truly represent a landmark in low carbon performance. In this paper, a methodology is proposed against which those statements can be quantified and assessed. The methodology was applied to Spanish companies that report to the Carbon Disclosure Project and showed that the biggest areas for improvement are the design of action plans, calculation, and offsetting. From a sectoral perspective, the energy sector, finance, and other services stood out as those with the highest scores. The food, beverages and tobacco, industry, and the entertainment industry obtained the lowest results. From a technical standpoint, strategy and commitment, calculation and scope, and communication are the areas where companies had the highest average scores. On the contrary, offsetting and action plans are the areas with the greatest room for improvement. Still, actual commitments are not enough to meet international climate neutrality objectives in the long-term and companies should continue to work in this direction. An enabling regulatory framework would be very useful to align private and public action in this area.
Suriname is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among the factors that exacerbate its vulnerability are its dependency on fossil fuels, the degradation of important ecosystems (e.g., mangroves), and the fact that 87% of the population, and most of the countrys economic activity is located within the low-lying coastal area. Many sectors are at risk of suffering losses and damage caused by gradual changes and extreme events related to climate change. For Suriname to develop sustainably, it should incorporate climate change and its effects into its decision-making process based on scientific- evidence. The State of the Climate Report analyzes Surinames historical climate (1990-2014) and provides climate projections for three time horizons (2020-2044, 2045-2069, 2070-2094) through two emissions scenarios (intermediate/ SSP2-4.5 and severe/ SSP5-8.5). The analysis focuses on changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds for the seven subnational locations of Paramaribo, Albina, Bigi Pan MUMA, Brokopondo, Kwamalasamutu, Tafelberg Natural Reserve, and Upper Tapanahony. The Report also analyzes climate risk for the countrys ten districts by examining the factors which increase their exposure and vulnerability on the four most important sectors affected by climate change: infrastructure, agriculture, water, and forestry, as well as examining the effects across the sectors. The State of the Climate Report provides essential inputs for Suriname to develop and update its climate change policies and targets. These policies and targets should enable an adequate mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and resilience enhancementinto day-to-day government operations. It is expected that the Report will catalyze similar efforts in the future to improve decision-making by providing science-based evidence.
This paper combines long-term state-of-the-art climate projections and indices to provide detailed insights into the future climate of Suriname to facilitate comprehensive information of areas and sectors at high climate risk for political decision-making. The study analyses Suriname’s historical climate (1990–2014) and provides climate projections for three time horizons (2020–2044, 2045–2069, 2070–2094) and two emissions scenarios (intermediate/SSP2-4.5 and severe/SSP5-8.5). Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) modeling is used to analyze changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds. In addition, risk impact chains were produced for the country’s four most important socio-economic sectors: agriculture and fisheries, forestry, water, and infrastructure. Results show the temperature is expected to increase for all regions and timeframes, reaching warming up to 6 °C in the southern region in the long-term future (2070–2094). Projections point towards a reduction in precipitation in the southwest and coastal regions and a rise in mean sea level. Regarding risk, Paramaribo and Wanica face the highest climate risk. Coronie and Nickerie face the least climate risk. These regions remain the most and least vulnerable in both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but overall values of their risk indices increase substantially over time.