Climate change could pose a significant threat to the energy sector in various countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term impact of changes in precipitation and water availability on hydroelectric production. To do so, the study focuses on three hydroelectric power plants in Southern Spain combining climatological, technical and economic data and projections. A physical model has been designed that reproduces the plants’ operations and incorporates various scenarios for the evolution of contributions to the basin. The results predict a 10 to 49% drop in production by the end of the century, depending on the plant and scenario. This decrease in production, in accordance with our economic and operational hypotheses, would significantly affect the operating margins of the facilities and, in certain scenarios, could reach an economically unsustainable level by the end of the century. An investment analysis has been carried out as well, showing that climate change may jeopardize future investments in similar facilities.
Global warming represents a serious challenge, which requires the adoption of renewable energy technologies worldwide. However, it can negatively affect the availability of renewable energy resources, such as wind, which are needed for electricity generation. In this context, there is an increasing need for more accurate evaluations of wind turbine power curves. A novel methodology to model the power curves of wind turbines, which combines the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) and Fuzzy logic rules, is proposed in this paper. This methodology assesses the role of environmental temperature in the power curve and the impact of temperature increases on wind energy production. The application of this methodology is illustrated with the simulation of the impact of global warming on the electricity generation of a wind farm. Due to the non-linear relationship between the power output of a turbine and its primary and derived parameters, it is shown that ANN combined with an expert system formed by a Fuzzy logic module fit power curve modeling processes well. The application of the methodology shows that an increase in temperatures would trigger a small reduction in the performance of wind turbines.
Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods do not account for the potentially strategic evaluations of experts. Once the ranking is delivered, Decision Makers (DMs) select the first alternative without questioning the credibility of the evaluations received from the experts. We formalize the selection problem of a DM who must choose from a set of alternatives according to both their characteristics and the credibility of the reports received. That is, we transform an MCDM setting into a game-theoretical scenario. We build our analysis on a recent extension of hesitant fuzzy numbers incorporated within the formal structure of TOPSIS. We define the restrictions that must be imposed regarding the credibility of the evaluations and the capacity of experts to form coalitions and manipulate rankings based on their subjective preferences. This feature constitutes a considerable drawback in real-life scenarios, mainly when dealing with environmental and sustainable strategic problems. In this regard, sustainable transportation problems incorporate both technical variables and subjective assessments whose values can be strategically reported by experts. We extend a real-life study case accounting for the evaluations of several experts to demonstrate the importance of strategic incentives for the rankings obtained when implementing MCDM techniques. We numerically illustrate the interactions between the experts’ reporting strategies and the formal tools available for the DMs to counteract potential manipulations of the final ranking.