The article assesses the internal differentiation of municipalities in the regions of the Russian Arctic by the scale of potential socioeconomic damage from dangerous geocryological processes. Based on a specially developed technique, the areas where the population and its economic activity are most spatially vulnerable to natural hazards, including those due to climate-related process, are identified.
This study is an attempt to suggest a new state system of permafrost monitoring, primarily for energetic infrastructure, based on past approaches and achievements in Russia for over a hundred years of Arctic studies. The methodology of this study is based on general theoretical methods of scientific research. Historical (retrospective analysis of the development of the monitoring system of long-term permafrost in Russia) and logical (inductive generalization) methods were applied. The structure and methods of permafrost monitoring in the Soviet Union and new technologies used nowadays to establish permafrost monitoring systems, taking into account modern Arctic energetic development, have been analyzed.
This article introduced an assessment of the Moscow population vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards, taking into account the actual population size and its movement within different time cycles (daily and weekly-seasonal). The use of alternative information sources, allowing to obtain more detailed information about the state of socio-geographical systems, correlates with modern international approaches and corresponds to global trends in the methodological approaches modification to solve a wide range of issues. In this work, in addition to official statistical sources, we used data from mobile operators, which make it possible to characterize the localization of subscribers at a certain point in time with the maximum degree of reliability. This made it possible to significantly correct and clarify the currently existing ideas about the distribution of the population over the Moscow city territory. A series of maps has been created that demonstrate population density as a key vulnerability indicator in the context of Moscow municipalities according to Rosstat data and mobile operators information (at the beginning of 2020). In order to identify the discrepancy between the data on the statistically recorded and real existing population, an existing population assessment in the areas of potential technogenic impact of Moscow potentially dangerous enterprises was carried out. As a result of the study, it was shown that in terms of the natural hazard level, urban space differentiation is less pronounced than in terms of the technogenic hazard level. Technogenic hazards endanger the life and safety of not only the traditionally environmentally unfavorable city parts but also a number of prosperous and prestigious districts. It was found that the number of citizens in the zones of the most dangerous enterprises potential impact varies widely throughout the year—from 0.6 to 1.3 million people (on average it is 1 / 10 from all capital residents). These calculated results are much higher than official documents shows.
Ongoing climate change most pronounces itself in northern latitudes, including in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Climate change is a complex multidirectional process that is characterized by both positive and negative effects on the functioning of territorial economic systems. In this regard, an analysis of the impacts of climate change on economic development is a particularly urgent scientific and practical task that requires comprehensive study. This research was devoted to assessing the probable impacts of climate transformations on the parameters of the economic development of the AZRF regions. The authors created a methodological approach to the assessment of the costs of the effects of climate change for the economy of the AZRF regions, taking into account the average predicted dynamics of surface air temperature and key regional economic specializations, as well as the degree of susceptibility of various industries to the climate change. The energy industry was considered in particular detail since it is the basis for all of the other industries and is the guarantor of life support for the populations that live in the extreme Arctic climate. Calculations have shown that the accumulated economic effects of climate change as a whole for the AZRF economy during the period 2020–2050 will be negative and have been estimated as having a cost of more than RUB 8 trillion (or nearly USD 111 billion in 2020 prices), which would be about 3% of total Russian Arctic GRP in average annual terms.