Having adopted a dynamic zero-COVID strategy to respond to SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility since August 2021, China is now considering whether, and for how long, this policy can remain in place. The debate has thus shifted towards the identification of mitigation strategies for minimizing disruption to the healthcare system in the case of a nationwide epidemic. To this aim, we developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated on the initial growth phase for the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, to project COVID-19 burden (that is, number of cases, patients requiring hospitalization and intensive care, and deaths) under hypothetical mitigation scenarios. The model also considers age-specific vaccine coverage data, vaccine efficacy against different clinical endpoints, waning of immunity, different antiviral therapies and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave that would result in exceeding critical care capacity with a projected intensive care unit peak demand of 15.6 times the existing capacity and causing approximately 1.55 million deaths. However, we also estimate that protecting vulnerable individuals by ensuring accessibility to vaccines and antiviral therapies, and maintaining implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions could be sufficient to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, suggesting that these factors should be points of emphasis in future mitigation policies.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42–62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.

Dynamically adapting the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to the evolving epidemiological situation could be key to reduce COVID-19 burden. Here we developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China. We found that a time-varying vaccination program (i.e., allocating vaccines to different target groups as the epidemic evolves) can be highly beneficial as it is capable of simultaneously achieving different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). Our findings suggest that boosting the vaccination capacity up to 2.5 million first doses per day (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden, should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number ≤1.5. The highest priority categories are consistent under a broad range of assumptions. Finally, a high vaccination capacity in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.

COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (R_t) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring R_t below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

Vaccine regulation in China meets World Health Organization standards, but China’s vaccine industry and immunization program have some characteristics that differ from other countries. We described the history, classification, supply and prices of vaccines available and used in China, compared with high-and middle-incomes countries to illustrate the development of Chinese vaccine industry and immunization program. Immunization policy documents were obtained from the State Council and the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC). Numbers of doses of vaccines released in China were obtained from the Biologicals Lot Release Program of the National Institutes for Food and Drug Control (NIFDC). Vaccine prices were obtained from Chinese Central Government Procurement (CCGP). International data were collected from US CDC, Public Health England, European CDC, WHO, and UNICEF. Between 2007 and 2015, the annual supply of vaccines in China ranged between 666 million and 1,190 million doses, with most doses produced domestically. The government’s Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) prevents 12 vaccine preventable diseases (VPD) through routine immunization. China produces vaccines that are in common use globally; however, the number of routinely-prevented diseases is fewer than in high- and middle-income countries. Contract prices for program (EPI) vaccines ranged from 0.1 to 5.7 US dollars per dose - similar to UNICEF prices. Contract prices for private-market vaccines ranged from 2.4 to 102.9 US dollars per dose - often higher than prices for comparable US, European, and UNICEF vaccines. China is a well-regulated producer of vaccines, but some vaccines that are important globally are not included in China’s EPI system in China. Sustained and coordinated effort will be required to bring Chinese vaccine industry and EPI into an era of global leadership.

Background: Globally, the epidemiology of non‐SARS‐CoV‐2 respiratory viruses like respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus was remarkably influenced by the implementation of non‐pharmacological interventions (NPIs) during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Our study explored the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of pediatric patients hospitalized with RSV or influenza infection before and during the pandemic after relaxation of NPIs in central China.Methods: This hospital‐based prospective case‐series study screened pediatric inpatients (age ≤ 14 years) enrolled with acute respiratory infections (ARI) for RSV or influenza infection from 2018 to 2021. The changes in positivity rates of viral detection, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics were analyzed and compared.Results: Median ages of all eligible ARI patients from 2018–2019 were younger than those from 2020–2021, so were ages of cases infected with RSV or influenza (RSV: 4.2 months vs. 7.2 months; influenza: 27.3 months vs. 37.0 months). Where the positivity rate for influenza was considerably decreased in 2020–2021 (1.4%, 27/1964) as compared with 2018–2019 (2.9%, 94/3275, P < 0.05), it was increased for RSV (11.4% [372/3275] vs. 13.3% [262/1964], P < 0.05) in the same period. The number of severe cases for both RSV and influenza infection were also decreased in 2020–2021 compared with 2018–2019.Conclusions: The implemented NPIs have had varied impacts on common respiratory viruses. A more effective prevention strategy for RSV infections in childhood is needed.