The East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is a 700-km-long left-lateral transform fault located between the Anatolian and Arabian plates. The proximity of the Euler Pole to the Arabia–Anatolia Plate boundary leads to rapid changes in plate velocity along the boundary, which is manifested by the decreasing slip rates from east (10 mm yr^–1) to west (∼1–4 mm yr^–1). The EAF displays heterogeneous seismicity patterns with seismic gaps, localized clusters and broad diffuse zones. In this study, in order to understand the origin of these complexities and quantify the seismic hazard along the EAF, we present an improved seismicity catalogue with more than 26 000 earthquakes and 160 focal mechanisms from regional moment tensor inversion between 2007 and 2020. The focal mechanisms and seismicity show that the EAF dips towards north and forms a well-defined plate boundary in the east between Palu and Çelikhan with almost pure left-lateral motion. Further west, the boundary becomes broader with activity along subparallel faults. Focal mechanisms show heterogeneous stress orientations in consistence with geodetically determined strain rate field. The stress orientations show a transition from strike-slip to extension towards the west of Çelikhan. Amongst all segments of EAF, the Pütürge segment, which holds the near-repeating earthquakes in the vicinity of the nucleation of the 2020 M_w 6.8 earthquake, is distinguished with its steady and high rate of seismicity. Further east, the neighbouring Palu segment is characterized by several distinct moderate earthquakes. We do not observe any change in the seismicity rate on these segments of the EAF following large earthquakes. In order to quantify the seismic hazard along the EAF, we calculate the recurrence time and maximum magnitude for each segment by using an extended seismicity catalogue of 150 yr including the large historical earthquakes and the geodetic strain rate. The results show ∼150 yr recurrence time with M_max∼6.7–7.0 along the seismically active Palu and Pütürge segments on the east, while relatively silent western segments yield longer recurrence times; 237–772 for Pazarcık and 414–917 for Amanos segments with slightly larger magnitudes (M_max ∼7–7.4). We infer that the seismicity patterns and strain-rate field along the EAF are shaped by several factors such as strong geometrical irregularities, heterogeneous coupling and complex plate motion leading to rapid change of fault slip rate.

Geodetic measurements following the 23 October 2011, M_w = 7.2 Van (eastern Turkey) earthquake reveal that a fault splay on the footwall block of the coseismic thrust fault was reactivated and slipped aseismically for more than 1.5 years following the earthquake. Although long-lasting aseismic slip on coseismic ruptures has been documented following many large earthquakes, long-lasting, triggered slip on neighboring faults that did not rupture during the earthquake has not been reported previously. Elastic dislocation and Coulomb stress modeling indicate that the postseismic deformation can be adequately explained by shallow slip on both the coseismic and splay fault and is likely driven mostly by coseismic stress changes. Thus, the slip deficit on the shallow section of the coseismic fault indicated by interferometric synthetic aperture radar-based models has been partially filled by aseismic slip, suggesting a lower likelihood for a large earthquake on the shallow section of the Van fault than suggested by previous studies.

The spatiotemporal pattern of surface displacements from large earthquakes provides crucial insights about the deformation of Earth’s crust at various scales and the interactions among tectonic plates. However, the lack of extensive and large-scale geodetic networks near such seismic events hinders our thorough understanding of the large-scale crustal deformation resulting from earthquakes. Using Türkiye’s extensive and continuous global navigation satellite system (GNSS) network during the moment magnitude 7.8 and 7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes on 6 February 2023, we show that large earthquakes can induce far-field crustal deformations (>700 kilometers), exceeding current predictions from elastic dislocation models. They can lead to the mobilization of tectonic plates and the triggering of far-field earthquakes, which carries profound implications for seismic hazard assessments and necessitates a new perspective on crustal deformation and earthquake mechanics.

In order to better assess earthquake hazards, it is vital to have a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of fault creep that occur on ruptured faults during the period following major earthquakes. Towards this end, we use new far-field GPS velocities from continuous stations (extending ∼50 − 70 km from the fault) and updated near-fault GPS survey observations, with high temporal and spatial density, to constrain active deformation along the M_w7.4, 1999 Izmit, Turkey Earthquake fault. We interpret and model deformation as resulting from postseismic afterslip on the coseismic fault. In the broadest sense, our results demonstrate that logarithmically decaying post-seismic afterslip continues at a significant level 20 years following 1999 Earthquake. Elastic models indicate substantially shallower apparent locking depths at present than prior to the 1999 Earthquake, consistent with continuing afterslip on the coseismic fault at depth. High-density, near-fault GPS observations indicate shallow creep on the upper 1-2 km of the coseismic fault, with variable rates, the highest and most clearly defined of which reach ∼12 mm/yr (10-15 mm/yr, 95% c.i.) near the epicenter between 2014-2016. This amounts to ∼half the long-term slip deficit rate.