The purpose of this study is to assess the landslide risk for Hunza–Nagar Valley (Northern Pakistan). In this study, different conditioning factors, e.g., topographical, geomorphological, climatic, and geological factors were considered. Two machine learning approaches, i.e., logistic regression and artificial neural network were used to develop landslide susceptibility maps. The accuracy test was carried out using the receiving operative characteristic (ROC) curve. Which showed that the success and prediction rates of LR model is 82.60 and 81.60%, while 77.90 and 75.40%, for the ANN model. Due to the physiographic condition of the area, the rainfall density was considered as the primary triggering factor and landslide index map was generated. Moreover, using the Aster data the land cover (LC) map was developed. The settlements were extracted from the LC map and used as the elements at risk and hence, the vulnerability index was developed. Finally, the landslide risk map (LRM) for the Hunza–Nagar valley was developed. The LRM indicated that 37.25 (20.21 km2) and 47.64% (25.84 km2) of the total settlements lie in low and very high-risk zones. This landslide risk map can help decision-makers for potential land development and landslide countermeasures.
11 March 2025 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
This study examines the impacts of the unprecedented 2022 monsoon season in Pakistan's Swat River basin, where rainfall exceeded historical averages by 7 %–8 %. This extreme weather led to catastrophic debris flows and floods, worsening challenges for low-income communities. The resulting financial instability affected millions, causing significant damage to homes, crops, and transportation. The study employs a multidisciplinary approach, combining field investigations, remote sensing data interpretation, and numerical simulations to identify the factors contributing to debris flow incidents. Analysis of land cover changes reveals a decrease in grasslands and an increase in barren land, indicating the adverse effects of deforestation on the region. Topography and gully morphology are crucial in initiating debris flows, with steep gradients and shallow-slope failures predominant. Numerical simulations show that debris flows reached high velocities of 18 m s−1 and depths of 40 m within 45 min. Two debris flows resulted in the formation of dams along the Swat River, intensifying subsequent floods. The study emphasizes the interplay of extreme rainfall and deforestation during the rainy season, rendering the region susceptible to debris flows and hindering restoration efforts. Recommendations include climate change mitigation, reforestation initiatives, and discouraging construction activities in flood-prone and debris-flow-prone regions. The study advocates for enhanced early warning systems and rigorous land use planning to protect the environment and local communities, highlighting the imperative of proactive measures in the face of escalating climate challenges. Additionally, the study investigates the spatial distribution of various events and their consequences, including potential hydrometeorological triggers, and how such events initiate processes that change mountain landscapes. It also assesses the extent to which the 2022 monsoon can be classified as abnormal. The combination of empirical evidence and practical insights presented in this study highlights research gaps and proposes routes toward a deeper understanding of monsoon-triggered geological hazards and their consequences.
Dhaka city is experiencing rapid land cover changes, and the effects of climate change are highly visible. Investigating their combined influence on runoff patterns is vital for sustainable urban planning and water resources management. In this work, multi-date land cover classification was performed using a random forest (RF) algorithm. To validate accuracy of land cover classification, an assessment was conducted by employing kappa coefficient, which ranged from 85 to 96%, indicating a high agreement between classified images and the reference dataset. Future land cover changes were forecasted with cellular automata-artificial neural network (CA-ANN) model. Further, soil conservation service -curve number (SCS-CN) rainfall-runoff model combined with CMIP6 climate data was employed to assess how changes in land cover impact runoff within Dhaka metropolitan development plan (DMDP) area. Over the study period (2020–2100), substantial transformations of land cover were observed, i.e., built-up areas expanded to 1146.47 km2 at the end of 2100, while agricultural areas and bare land diminished considerably. Consequently, monsoon runoff increased from 350.14 to 368.24 mm, indicating elevated hydrological responses. These findings emphasized an intricate interplay between urban dynamics and climatic shifts in shaping runoff patterns, underscoring urgency of incorporating these factors into urban planning strategies for sustainable water resources management in a rapidly growing city such as Dhaka.
16 March 2026 in Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
In response to escalating global climate change and its increasing impacts worldwide, this study investigates the consequences of extreme weather events, focusing on the unprecedented 2022 monsoon season in the Swat River basin of Pakistan. Record-breaking rainfall, exceeding the 1960–2021 averages by 7–8 %, triggered catastrophic debris flows and floods, aggravating low-income communities' challenges. The resulting financial instability severely affected millions, causing extensive damage to homes, crops, and transportation. The study employs a multidisciplinary approach, combining field investigations, remote sensing data interpretation, and numerical simulations to identify the factors contributing to debris flow incidents. Analysis of land cover changes reveals a decrease in grasslands and an increase in barren land, indicating the adverse effects of deforestation on the region. Topography and gully morphology are crucial in initiating debris flows, with steep gradients and shallow slope failures predominant. Numerical simulations show that debris flows reached high velocities of 18 m/s and depths of 40 m within 45 minutes. Two debris flows resulted in the formation of dams along the Swat River, intensifying subsequent floods. The study emphasizes the interplay of extreme rainfall and deforestation during the rainy season, rendering the region susceptible to debris flows and hindering restoration efforts. The findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive disaster mitigation strategies. Recommendations include climate change mitigation, reforestation initiatives, and discouraging construction activities in flood-prone and debris flow-prone regions. The study advocates for enhanced early warning systems and rigorous land use planning to protect the environment and local communities, highlighting the imperative of proactive measures in the face of escalating climate challenges. Additionally, the study investigates the spatial distribution of various events and their consequences, including potential hydro-meteorological triggers, and how such events initiate processes that change mountain landscapes. It also assesses the degree to which the 2022 monsoon can be classified as abnormal. The combination of empirical evidence and practical insights presented in this study highlights research gaps and proposes routes toward attaining a comprehensive comprehension of monsoon-triggered geological hazards and consequences.