Background: Fatty liver (FL) is the most frequent liver disease in Western countries. We used data from the Dionysos Nutrition & Liver Study to develop a simple algorithm for the prediction of FL in the general population. Methods: 216 subjects with and 280 without suspected liver disease were studied. FL was diagnosed by ultrasonography and alcohol intake was assessed using a 7-day diary. Bootstrapped stepwise logistic regression was used to identify potential predictors of FL among 13 variables of interest [gender, age, ethanol intake, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, sum of 4 skinfolds, glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and cholesterol]. Potential predictors were entered into stepwise logistic regression models with the aim of obtaining the most simple and accurate algorithm for the prediction of FL. Results: An algorithm based on BMI, waist circumference, triglycerides and GGT had an accuracy of 0.84 (95%CI 0.81–0.87) in detecting FL. We used this algorithm to develop the "fatty liver index" (FLI), which varies between 0 and 100. A FLI < 30 (negative likelihood ratio = 0.2) rules out and a FLI ≥ 60 (positive likelihood ratio = 4.3) rules in fatty liver. Conclusion: FLI is simple to obtain and may help physicians select subjects for liver ultrasonography and intensified lifestyle counseling, and researchers to select patients for epidemiologic studies. Validation of FLI in external populations is needed before it can be employed for these purposes.

The prevalence of and the risk factors for fatty liver have not undergone a formal evaluation in a representative sample of the general population. We therefore performed a cross-sectional study in the town of Campogalliano (Modena, Italy), within the context of the Dionysos Project. Of 5,780 eligible persons aged 18 to 75 years, 3,345 (58%) agreed to participate in the study. Subjects with suspected liver disease (SLD), defined on the basis of elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl-transferase (GGT) activity, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), or hepatitis C virus (HCV)-RNA positivity, were matched with randomly selected subjects of the same age and sex without SLD. A total of 311 subjects with and 287 without SLD underwent a detailed clinical, laboratory, and anthropometrical evaluation. Fatty liver was diagnosed by ultrasonography, and alcohol intake was assessed by using a 7-day diary. Multinomial logistic regression was used to detect risk factors for normal liver versus nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and for alcoholic fatty liver (AFLD) versus NAFLD. The prevalence of NAFLD was similar in subjects with and without SLD (25 vs. 20%, P = .203). At multivariable analysis, normal liver was more likely than NAFLD in older subjects and less likely in the presence of obesity, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and systolic hypertension; AFLD was more likely than NAFLD in older subjects, males, and in the presence of elevated GGT and hypertriglyceridemia, and less likely in the presence of obesity and hyperglycemia. In conclusion, NAFLD is highly prevalent in the general population, is not associated with SLD, but is associated with many features of the metabolic syndrome. (Hepatology 2005.)

Although hepatic steatosis is seen with increasing frequency in clinical practice, its prevalence and risk factors are unknown. To investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for hepatic steatosis, such as alcohol consumption and obesity. Cross-sectional, observational study. Participants in the Dionysos Study. 257 participants assigned to one of four categories (67 controls, 66 obese persons, 69 heavy drinkers, and 55 obese heavy drinkers). Ethanol intake, assessed by a validated questionnaire and expressed as daily (g/d) and lifetime (kg) consumption, and body mass, expressed as body mass index. Biochemical tests of liver and metabolic function and hepatic ultrasonography were done. The prevalence of steatosis was increased in heavy drinkers (46.4% [95% CI, 34% to 59%]) and obese persons (75.8% [CI, 63% to 85%]) compared with controls (16.4% [CI, 8% to 25%]). Steatosis was found in 94.5% (CI, 85% to 99%) of obese heavy drinkers. Compared with controls, the risk for steatosis was higher by 2.8-fold (CI, 1.4-fold to 7.1-fold) in heavy drinkers, 4.6-fold (CI, 2.5-fold to 11.0-fold) in obese persons, and 5.8-fold (CI, 3.2-fold to 12.3-fold) in persons who were obese and drank heavily. In heavy drinkers, obesity increased the risk for steatosis by twofold (CI, 1.5-fold to 3.0-fold) (P < 0.001), but heavy drinking was associated with only a 1.3-fold (CI, 1.02-fold to 1.6-fold) increase in risk in obese persons (P = 0.0053). Elevated alanine aminotransferase and triglyceride levels are the most reliable markers of steatosis. Steatosis is frequently encountered in healthy persons and is almost always present in obese persons who drink more than 60 g of alcohol per day. Steatosis is more strongly associated with obesity than with heavy drinking, suggesting a greater role of overweight than alcohol consumption in accumulation of fat in the liver.

Background —The Dionysos Study is a cohort study of the prevalence of chronic liver disease in the general population of two northern Italian communities. It included 6917 subjects, aged 12–65 (69% of the total population). Aims —The aim of this part of the study was to examine the relationship of daily alcohol intake, type of alcoholic beverage consumed, and drinking patterns to the presence of alcohol induced liver damage in an open population. Patients and methods —6534 subjects, free of virus related chronic liver disease and participating in the first cross-sectional part of the study, were fully examined. Each subject underwent: (a) medical history and physical examination, (b) evaluation of alcohol intake using an illustrated dietary questionnaire, and (c) routine blood tests. More invasive diagnostic procedures were performed when indicated. Results —Multivariate analysis showed that the risk threshold for developing either cirrhosis or non-cirrhotic liver damage (NCLD) was ingestion of more than 30 g alcohol per day in both sexes. Using this definition, 1349 individuals (21% of the population studied) were at risk. Of these, only 74 (5.5% of the individuals at risk) showed signs of liver damage. The prevalence of “pure” alcoholic cirrhosis was 0.43% (30 of 6917), representing 2.2% of the individuals at risk, with a ratio of men to women of 9:1, while 44 (3.3% of the individuals at risk) showed persistent signs of NCLD. After 50 years of age, the cumulative risk of developing both NCLD and cirrhosis was significantly higher (p<0.0001) for those individuals who regularly drank alcohol both with and without food than for those who drank only at mealtimes. Conclusions —Our data show that in an open population the risk threshold for developing cirrhosis and NCLD is 30 g ethanol/day, and this risk increases with increasing daily intake. Drinking alcohol outside mealtimes and drinking multiple different alcoholic beverages both increase the risk of developing alcohol induced liver damage.