Understanding the fine‐scale geographic distribution of a species has applications in biogeography, ecology, evolution and conservation. Species distribution models (SDM) have been widely used to predict geographic and climatic ranges of species. Geoffroy's cat Leopardus geoffroyi is a small felid of least concern that occupies a wide variety of habitat types in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. We evaluated the fine‐scale distribution of Geoffroy's cat at the sub‐continental level, estimated its current extent and area of occurrence and discussed the current and potential ranges developed with SDM. On the basis of species occurrences (n = 1502) and large‐scale environmental data, two model types (‘environmental’ and ‘land cover’) were developed using MaxEnt. The estimated extent of occurrence of Geoffroy's cat was 3 180 664 km², but the potential area of occurrence predicted by our environmental model was 70% larger due to areas with high suitability (i.e. >0.5) compared to the species’ current range. The most important bioclimatic factors affecting Geoffroy's cat presence were temperature seasonality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation. Two recent records obtained outside the known distribution of the species fell within the high‐suitability area (i.e. >0.5) predicted by our model. Our SDM suggest that this habitat‐generalist felid is probably expanding its distribution range by taking advantage of changes in human land use.

Ecología y conservación de los bosques y arbustales de Polylepis: ¿qué sabemos y qué ignoramos?

Climate change and habitat fragmentation are considered key pressures on biodiversity, and mammalian carnivores with a limited geographical distribution are particularly vulnerable. The kodkodLeopardus guigna, a small felid endemic to the temperate forests of southern Chile and Argentina, has the smallest geographical range of any New World felid. Although the species occurs in protected areas in both countries, it is not known how well these areas protect the kodkod either currently or under climate change scenarios. We used species distribution models and spatial analyses to assess the distribution of the kodkod, examining the effects of changes in human land use and future climate change. We also assessed the species’ present representation in protected areas and in light of climate change scenarios. We found that the kodkod has already lost 5.5% of its range as a result of human land use, particularly in central areas of its distribution with intermediate habitat suitability. Climate change, together with human land use, will affect 40% of the kodkod's present potential distribution by the year 2050. Currently, 12.5% of the species’ potential distribution lies in protected areas and this will increase to 14% in the future. This increase does not, however, mean an increase in protected habitat but rather a reduction of the species' total potential range; a relatively larger percentage will be protected in Argentina than in Chile but the species is more susceptible to extinction in Argentina and the Chilean Matorral.