Affected by global warming and increased extreme weather, Hunan Province saw a phased and concentrated outbreak of forest fires in 2022, causing significant damage and impact. Predicting the occurrence of forest fires can enhance the ability to make early predictions and strengthen early warning and responses. Currently, fire prevention and extinguishing in China’s forests and grasslands face severe challenges due to the overlapping of natural and social factors. Existing forest fire occurrence prediction models mostly take into account vegetation, topographic, meteorological and human activity factors; however, the occurrence of forest fires is closely related to the forest fuel moisture content. In this study, the traditional driving factors of forest fire such as satellite hotspots, vegetation, meteorology, topography and human activities from 2004 to 2021 were introduced along with forest fuel factors (vegetation canopy water content and evapotranspiration from the top of the vegetation canopy), and a database of factors for predicting forest fire occurrence was constructed. And a forest fire occurrence prediction model was built using machine learning methods such as the Random Forest model (RF), the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model (GBDT) and the Adaptive Augmentation Model (AdaBoost). The accuracy of the models was verified using Area Under Curve (AUC) and four other metrics. The RF model with an AUC value of 0.981 was more accurate than all other models in predicting the probability of forest fire occurrence, followed by the GBDT (AUC = 0.978) and AdaBoost (AUC = 0.891) models. The RF model, which has the best accuracy, was selected to predict the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha in 2022 and combined with the Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation method to plot the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha. We found that the monthly spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire probability in Changsha varied significantly, with March, April, May, September, October, November and December being the months with higher forest fire probability. The highest probability of forest fires occurred in the central and northern regions. In this study, the core drivers affecting the occurrence of forest fires in Changsha City were found to be vegetation canopy evapotranspiration and vegetation canopy water content. The RF model was identified as a more suitable forest fire occurrence probability prediction model for Changsha City. Meanwhile, this study found that vegetation characteristics and combustible factors have more influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City than meteorological factors, and surface temperature has less influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City.

Urbanization has significantly changed thermal environments and vegetation phenology. However, the effects of spatially different land surface temperatures (LST) on vegetation phenology, rather than differences between urban areas and rural areas, remain unclear. In this study, four cities with similar vegetation types located in temperate monsoon climate zones were selected to map vegetation phenological metrics and discuss their responses to spatially heterogeneous LST within urban areas. First, Sentinel 2-A and 2-B data were used to estimate phenological metrics by combining Savitzky–Golay filtering, and Landsat 8 TIRS data was used to obtain LST. Second, buffer zones (from the urban center to the urban edge at 1 km intervals) were used to extract the averaged phenological metrics and LST. The response of the phenological metrics to LST from the urban center to the urban edge was then analyzed. Results show that spatial differences in LST and vegetation phenology exist inside urban regions as well as between urban and peri-urban areas. In addition, the response of phenology to LST within urban areas is also obvious. SOS is negatively related to spring LST from the urban center to the urban edge, whereas EOS is positively related to autumn LST.

The formation of forest fire burned area, influenced by a variety of factors such as meteorology, topography, vegetation, and human intervention, is a dynamic process of fire line burning that develops from the point of ignition to the boundary of the burned area. Accurately simulating and predicting this dynamic process can provide a scientific basis for forest fire control and suppression decisions. In this study, five typical forest fires located in different regions of China were used as the study object. The straight path distances from the ignition point grid to each grid on fire line in Sentinel-2 imageries for each forest fire were used as the target variables. We obtained the values of 11 independent variables for each pathway, including wind speed component, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Degree of Relief, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Vegetation Type, Fire Duration, and Gross Domestic Product reflecting human intervention capacity for fires. The value of each target variable and that of its corresponding independent variable constituted a sample. Four machine learning models, such as Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), were trained using 80% effective samples from four forest fires, and 20% used to verify the above models. The hyper-parameters of each model were optimized using grid search method. After analyzing the validation results of models which showed temperature as a non-significant variable, the training and validation process of models above was repeated after excluding temperature. The results show that RF is the optimal model with 49.55 m for root mean square error (RMSE), 29.19 m for mean absolute error (MAE) and 0.9823 for coefficient of determination (R²). This study used the RF model to construct the shape of burned areas by predicting lengths of all straight path distances from the ignition point to the fire line. The study can dynamically capture the development of forest fire scenes.

Sea ice recognition is of great significance for reflecting climate change and ensuring ship navigation safety. In recent years, many deep learning-based methods have been proposed and applied to the segmentation and recognition of sea ice regions. However, existing deep learning models often struggle to effectively capture the subtle spectral differences between sea ice and seawater, as well as the large-scale spatial dependencies in high-resolution remote sensing images, resulting in limited segmentation accuracy in areas with ambiguous ice-water boundaries. This paper proposes a red-blue normalized difference index (RB-NDI) guided state space model approach for sea ice segmentation, termed SI-Mamba. In the proposed SI-Mamba, the Index-Guided Collaborative Enhancement (IGCE) module employs an RB-NDI index-guided state space model (SSM) mechanism to overcome the limitations in explicit modeling of spectral features, achieving efficient modeling of long-range spatial dependencies in sea ice distribution. Furthermore, the designed Dynamic Boundary Focus Loss (DBFL) function adjusts the model's expressive capability in edge-sensitive regions through collaborative optimization between the main segmentation head and the index-assisted head. Experiments on multiple generated sea ice datasets demonstrate that the proposed SI-Mamba achieves improved performance in sea ice segmentation and identification in optical remote sensing images. It significantly enhances the accuracy of ice-water boundary recognition and generalization capability in complex scenarios, offering a novel and effective solution for remote sensing based sea ice recognition.

It is of great significance to map forest fire burn scars for post-disaster management and assessment of forest fires. Satellites can be utilized to acquire imagery even in primitive forests with steep mountainous terrain. However, forest fire burn scar mapping extracted by the Burned Area Index (BAI), differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), and Feature Extraction Rule-Based (FERB) approaches directly at pixel level is limited by the satellite imagery spatial resolution. To further improve the spatial resolution of forest fire burn scar mapping, we improved the image super-resolution reconstruction via sparse representation (SCSR) and named it modified image super-resolution reconstruction via sparse representation (MSCSR). It was compared with the Burned Area Subpixel Mapping–Feature Extraction Rule-Based (BASM-FERB) method to screen a better approach. Based on the Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, the MSCSR and BASM-FERB approaches were used to map forest fire burn scars at the subpixel level, and the extraction result was validated using actual forest fire data. The results show that forest fire burn scar mapping at the subpixel level obtained by the MSCSR and BASM-FERB approaches has a higher spatial resolution; in particular, the MSCSR approach can more effectively reduce the noise effect on forest fire burn scar mapping at the subpixel level. Five accuracy indexes, the Overall Accuracy (OA), User’s Accuracy (UA), Producer’s Accuracy (PA), Intersection over Union (IoU), and Kappa Coefficient (Kappa), are used to assess the accuracy of forest fire burn scar mapping at the pixel/subpixel level based on the BAI, dNBR, FERB, MSCSR and BASM-FERB approaches. The average accuracy values of the OA, UA, PA, IoU, and Kappa of the forest fire burn scar mapping results at the subpixel level extracted by the MSCSR and BASM-FERB approaches are superior compared to the forest fire burn scar mapping results at the pixel level extracted by the BAI, dNBR and FERB approaches. In particular, the average accuracy values of the OA, UA, PA, IoU, and Kappa of the forest fire burn scar mapping at the subpixel level detected by the MSCSR approach are 98.49%, 99.13%, 92.31%, 95.83%, and 92.81%, respectively, which are 1.48%, 10.93%, 2.47%, 15.55%, and 5.90%, respectively, higher than the accuracy of that extracted by the BASM-FERB approach. It is concluded that the MSCSR approach extracts forest fire burn scar mapping at the subpixel level with higher accuracy and spatial resolution for post-disaster management and assessment of forest fires.