While the Sun is generally more eruptive during its maximum and declining phases, observational evidence shows certain cases of powerful solar eruptions during the quiet phase of solar activity. Occurring in the weak Solar Cycle 14 just after its minimum, the extreme space weather event in 1903 October–November is one of these cases. Here, we reconstruct the time series of geomagnetic activity based on contemporary observational records. With the mid-latitude magnetograms, the 1903 magnetic storm is thought to be caused by a fast coronal mass ejection (≈1500 km s⁻¹) and is regarded as a superstorm with an estimated minimum of the equivalent disturbance storm time index (Dst’) of ≈−531 nT. The reconstructed time series has been compared with the equatorward extension of auroral oval (≈44.°1 in invariant latitude) and the time series of telegraphic disturbances. This case study shows that potential threats posed by extreme space weather events exist even during weak solar cycles or near their minima.

Understanding extreme space weather events is of paramount importance in efforts to protect technological systems in space and on the ground. Particularly in the thermosphere, the subsequent extreme magnetic storms can pose serious threats to low Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft by intensifying errors in orbit predictions. Extreme magnetic storms (minimum Dst ≤ −250 nT) are extremely rare: Only seven events occurred during the era of spacecraft with high‐level accelerometers such as CHAMP (CHAllenge Minisatellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate experiment) and none with minimum Dst ≤ −500 nT, here termed magnetic superstorms. Therefore, current knowledge of thermospheric mass density response to superstorms is very limited. Thus, in order to advance this knowledge, four known magnetic superstorms in history, that is, events occurring before CHAMP's and GRACE's commission times, with complete data sets, are used to empirically estimate density enhancements and subsequent orbital drag. The November 2003 magnetic storm (minimum Dst = −422 nT), the most extreme event observed by both satellites, is used as the benchmark event. Results show that, as expected, orbital degradation is more severe for the most intense storms. Additionally, results clearly point out that the time duration of the storm is strongly associated with storm time orbital drag effects, being as important as or even more important than storm intensity itself. The most extreme storm time decays during CHAMP/GRACE‐like sample satellite orbits estimated for the March 1989 magnetic superstorm show that long‐lasting superstorms can have highly detrimental consequences for the orbital dynamics of satellites in LEO.

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has proven to be very successful in forecasting a variety of irregular magnetospheric/ionospheric processes like geomagnetic storms and substorms. SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and the asymmetric component of the ring current. Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for these indices using ANN. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account for this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with exogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network considers input history of 30 min and output feedback of 120 min. Solar wind parameters mainly velocity, density, and interplanetary magnetic field are used as inputs. SYMH and ASYH indices during geomagnetic storms of 1998–2013, having minimum SYMH < −85 nT are used as the target for training two independent networks. We present the prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices during nine geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including the recent largest storm occurred on St. Patrick’s day, 2015. The present prediction model reproduces the entire time profile of SYMH and ASYH indices along with small variations of ∼10–30 min to the good extent within noise level, indicating a significant contribution of interplanetary sources and past state of the magnetosphere. Therefore, the developed networks can predict SYMH and ASYH indices about an hour before, provided, real-time upstream solar wind data are available. However, during the main phase of major storms, residuals (observed-modeled) are found to be large, suggesting the influence of internal factors such as magnetospheric processes.

The signatures of abrupt turnings of the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), Bz, can be seen at equatorial latitudes through the prompt transmission of high‐latitude electric fields to the lower latitudes, called as prompt penetration electric field (PPE). The present work studies the signatures of PPE in daytime equatorial electrojet (EEJ) index derived in the Indian sector during 2001–2005. The signatures are observed in polar (PCN index) and equatorial (EEJ index) ionosphere almost instantaneously (<1 min). The communication time of 12±6 min is observed between bow shock nose and the equatorial ionosphere, and it is found to have inverse relationship with radial component of solar wind velocity during southward and northward Bz turnings which might indicate magnetosphere crossing time scale by solar wind. Ionospheric reconfiguration time during southward turnings shows inverse relationship with solar wind flow in contrast to northward turnings with “no relationship,” indicating differences in underlying physical mechanisms during both turnings. We observe no local time dependence (within 06–18 h) in conductivity‐corrected EEJ signatures associated with Bz turnings. Regression analysis between conductivity‐corrected EEJ and interplanetary electric field shows higher efficiency during northward turnings. However, further analysis investigating the effect of actual orientation of Bz indicates that the magnitude of northward Bz does not have influence on the ionospheric signatures. It is noticed that the response signatures are mainly controlled by the magnitudes of southward Bz. Thus, the present study signifies the role of inner magnetospheric shielding electric field in addition to ceasing of convection during northward turnings.

Energy transfer during the interaction of large-scale solar wind structure and the Earth’s magnetosphere is a chronic issue in space-weather studies. To understand this, researchers widely studied the geomagnetic storm and substorm phenomena. The present understanding suggests that the long duration of the southward interplanetary magnetic field component is the most important parameter for the geomagnetic storm. Such a long duration strong southward magnetic field is often associated with ICMEs, torsional Alfvén fluctuations superposed corotating interacting regions (CIRs), and fast solar wind streams. Torsional Alfvén fluctuations embedded CIRs have been known of for a long time; however, magnetic clouds embedded with such fluctuations are rarely observed. The presence of Alfvén waves in the ICME/MC and the influence of these waves on the storm evolution remains an interesting topic of study. The present work confirms the torsional Alfvén waves in a magnetic cloud associated with a CME launched on 2011 February 15, which impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere on 2011 February 18. Furthermore, observations indicate that these waves inject energy into the magnetosphere during the storm and contribute to the long recovery time of geomagnetic storms. Our study suggests that the presence of torsional Alfvén waves significantly controls the storm dynamics.