Ecosystem services (ESs) serve as a fundamental cornerstone for upholding global biodiversity and promoting human well-being. ESs trade-off and synergy are supposed to be significantly affected by climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LULC). However, the limited availability of finely classified future land-use data and integrated landscape change models incorporating climate change scenarios has hindered our understanding of the trade-off and synergistic patterns and controls of ESs at multiple scales, particularly in arid areas. Here, a future multi-scenario ESs trade-off/collaborative assessment framework (SD-PLUS-InVEST model) for multi-scale conversion and refined land-use classification was developed by coupling the patch-generated land-use simulation (PLUS) model, system dynamics (SD) model, InVEST model, geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, optimal parameter geographical detector (OPGD) model, and structural equation model (SEM). The four ESs, namely carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water conservation (WC), and soil conservation (SC), were assessed. Further, multi-scale ESs were evaluated under different climate change and development scenarios (i.e., the SSP1-2.6 and ecological protection scenario, SSP1-2.6-EP; SSP2-4.5 and natural development scenario, SSP2-4.5-ND; SSP5-8.5 and economic growth scenario, SSP5-8.5-EG). The results demonstrated that the arid region of northwest China (ANWC) was experiencing a significant and continuous warming trend accompanied by increased humidity. There will be a significant decrease in the areas occupied by paddy fields, natural forests, and permanent glaciers among the 24 LULC types. Conversely, there will be a substantial increase in dry land, high-coverage grassland, and urban construction land areas. According to the SSP1-2.6-EP, SSP2-4.5-ND, and SSP5-8.5-EG scenarios, the comprehensive land-use dynamic degrees were estimated to reach 2.58%, 4.08%, and 4.74%, respectively. The LULC resulting from CC exacerbates the differences in the four ESs of ANWC. In particular, CS and HQ experience significant reductions in 2100. Conversely, WC and SC show notable increases during the same period. The changes in CS, HQ, WC, and SC reach 11.36 × 10⁸ m³, 1735.25 × 10⁸ t, −1.29 × 10⁸ t, and −0.009, respectively. The four ESs of CS, HQ, WC, and SC in ANWC display a synergistic relationship. This synergy is influenced by the heterogeneous spatial distribution of CS, HQ, WC, and SC, with the strongest synergy observed between CS and HQ and the weakest between CS and WC. Interestingly, the distribution differences in ESs synergy were amplified at watershed, county, and grid scales in mountainous areas, with the most significant detection differentiation occurring at the grid scale. Furthermore, the detection of spatial heterogeneity in the four ESs can be attributed to various factors. These factors include the drought index (q = 0.378), annual average precipitation (q = 0.375), economic density (q = 0.095), vegetation coverage (q = 0.262), and soil bulk density (q = 0.077). Our results highlight the importance of CC in influencing ESs. The spatial variations in ESs trade-offs and coordination at different scales, particularly the pronounced differences observed in mountainous areas, underscore the need to prioritize the conservation of arid mountainous regions in terms of future policy making.

Climate change and human activities were identified as the primary drivers of streamflow in arid alpine regions. However, limitations in observational data have resulted in a limited understanding of streamflow changes in these water sources, which hinders efforts to adapt to ongoing climate change and to formulate effective streamflow management policies. Here, we use the four main tributaries in the upper reach of the Shiyang River in China as a case study to investigate the long-term trends in streamflow within arid alpine water sources, quantifying the individual contributions of climate change and human activities to these changes. The findings revealed that temperatures and precipitation in arid alpine regions have risen over the past 40 years. Although the warming trend has been significant, it has slowed in recent years. Nevertheless, three-quarters of the rivers are experiencing a decline in streamflow. The land types within the watershed remain relatively stable, with land use and cover change (LUCC) primarily occurring in the Gulang River watershed. Climate change has significantly affected streamflow change in high and rugged terrains, with an influence exceeding 70%. For example, Jingta River showed an impact of 118.79%, Zamu River 84.00%, and Huangyang River 71.43%. Human-driven LUCC, such as the expansion of cultivated and urban land, have led to increased water consumption, resulting in reduced streamflow. This effect is particularly pronounced in the low-lying and gently undulating areas of the Gulang River, where LUCC account for 78.68% of the change in streamflow. As human activities intensify and temperatures continue to rise, further declines in streamflow are projected, highlighting the urgent need for effective water resource management. These insights highlight the urgent need for targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to confront the water scarcity challenges faced by these vulnerable regions.

Large-scale inter-basin water transfer is an important means to alleviate the pressure on water resources in water shortage regions. However, the long-term impacts of inter-basin transfers on the regional water–salt balance and associated land productivity remain poorly understood, especially in salt-affected arid environments. To fill this gap, the core objective of this study was to reveal the implications of inter-basin water transfer on soil salinity and sodicity and the crop yield response under different irrigation practices. We conducted a case study on the Karamay irrigation district (KID), an artificial oasis with a 30-year history of inter-basin water transfer in northwestern China, using trend and correlation analyses, water–salt balance analyses, and salt-controlled yield reduction functions as well as field comprehensive measurements over 1996–2023. The results indicate that soil salinity and sodicity profiles, overall, exhibited a clear vertical stratification under both the early and late crop growing stages, and the degree of the soil salinization was decreasing, and the area of non-saline land was increasing significantly from 1996 to 2023 in the KID. Owing to the lack of salt-washing water and the poor irrigation water quality, the water-saving irrigated farmland was in the slight salt-aggregating state in the topsoil layer, while the other soil layers were in the salt-expelling or salt-equilibrating state in the KID. The profile distribution and exchange fluxes of soil salinity and sodicity are mainly characterized by climate, irrigation, and groundwater dynamics, as well as the plant salt tolerance, soil properties, and agronomic management which also influence the soil salt accumulation. With the transformation of irrigation schemes from traditional flood irrigation to modern water-saving irrigation during 1996–2023, the impact of soil salinity on relative crop yields has been substantially reduced in the KID, especially for salt-sensitive crops. This revealed that optimizing the drainage facilities, precise field irrigation and fertilization measures, and rational crop selection and agronomic practices are vital for high-quality development in the KID. Capitalizing on these research findings, we would provide effective directives for maintaining the sustainability of agricultural development in other similar inter-basin water transfer zones in the world.

Climate change and human interventions have exerted a long-term influence on variations in continental streamflow. Despite this, the precise mechanisms by which these factors regulate the change in streamflow remain inadequately understood, especially in arid alpine regions, due to the limited number of observations which exacerbates difficulties in comprehensively assessing streamflow alterations. Consequently, assessing the impacts of climate change and human interventions on streamflow is a challenge in data-scarce regions. Here, using the Zamu River as an example, we analyzed streamflow changes in arid alpine regions using a method that integrates the Patch-generated Land Use Simulation model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our analysis highlighted that climate change primarily drove streamflow variations in the Zamu River, accounting for over 80% of the observed contributions. This influence was further amplified by the effects of future climate and changes in land use and land cover, resulting in increased streamflow. Additionally, precipitation emerged as the main factor driving the rise in streamflow. These findings emphasize the significant impact of climate change on water cycles in arid alpine regions and underscore the necessity for tailored water resource management strategies to ensure sustainable regional development and effective climate change adaptation.