Tufail Muhammad

Dr. Tufail Muhammad

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

4Years (2023-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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16 January 2023 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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JZJide Zhang
Jide Zhang
MAMushtaq Ahmad
Mushtaq Ahmad
TMTufail Muhammad
Tufail Muhammad
FSFurqan Syed
Furqan Syed
XHXu Hong
Xu Hong
MKMuhammad Khan
Muhammad Khan
The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impact of financial development, globalization, and pollution in six MENA countries from 1971 to 2015. Many prior studies empirically explored numerous factors determining environmental quality/pollution across the world. As far as the region of North Africa and the Middle East is concerned, the majority of previous studies ignored the combined role of globalization and financial development in predicting environmental quality using carbon emissions (CO2). Furthermore, we aimed to assess the legitimacy of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory for MENA nations. For this purpose, a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator was applied. It was found that the development of the financial sector and globalization significantly affected ecological quality. Regressors such as energy use and foreign direct investment (FDI) had an altogether positive effect on natural quality. These empirical discoveries also demonstrate the acceptability of the EKC hypothesis for MENA nations. This study shows that governments in the Middle East and East Africa need to develop and implement appropriate policies to promote renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, biofuel, and heat production, which help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and promote sustainable economic development.

4 January 2024 in Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
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QKQasim Khan
Qasim Khan
AAAhsan Anwar
Ahsan Anwar
TMTufail Muhammad
Tufail Muhammad
NGNoorulhaq Ghafoori
Noorulhaq Ghafoori
MAMushtaq Ahmad
Mushtaq Ahmad

19 December 2024 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JZJunyan Zhang
Junyan Zhang
TMTufail Muhammad
Tufail Muhammad
WDWensheng Dai
Wensheng Dai
QKQasim Khan
Qasim Khan
MAMushtaq Ahmad
Mushtaq Ahmad
To promote sustainable development and global prosperity, policymakers collaborate on strategically harnessing natural resources and promoting renewable energy consumption to stimulate economic growth. This study examines the resource curse hypothesis across eight South Asian countries, Nepal, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bhutan, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, from 1996 to 2022 using the ARDL model, multicollinearity analysis, unit root testing, and cointegration techniques. The findings reveal diverse effects in both the short and long runs. Natural resource rents have varying impacts on economic performance, experiencing negligible or even negative effects in the short term. In contrast, others show positive long-term relationships between natural resource exploitation and economic growth. The analysis of key economic factors, such as human capital, capital investment, energy consumption, and trade openness, shows that each influences economic performance in specific and measurable ways. This study highlights the significant role that natural resources play in shaping economic outcomes, which tends to negatively affect investment in many instances, underscoring the need for efficient resource management to avoid potential economic stagnation. This result may stem from the high upfront costs of renewable energy infrastructure, which outweigh short-term benefits, and the lack of supportive policies for renewable energy projects. This research confirms the presence of the resource curse in South Asian countries, stressing the need for efficient resource management strategies to prevent economic instability and mismanagement. Governments must implement policies that promote trade diversity and openness while fostering sustainable growth through improved resource governance.

19 September 2023 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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XXXu Xu
Xu Xu
WDWensheng Dai
Wensheng Dai
TMTufail Muhammad
Tufail Muhammad
TZTao Zhang
Tao Zhang
As a critical component of primary production and consumption activities worldwide, renewable energy is a necessary source of economic development and social prosperity. The main emphasis of the current research is to investigate how five Asian countries are leveraging financial resources and renewable energy to address carbon emissions and achieve Sustainable Development Goals. It explores the relationship between the environmental impacts of financial development and renewable energy under external moderation. To address this aim, a secondary quantitative research method was used, considering the period from 2010 to 2020. For data analysis, a cross-sectional dependence test, second-generation unit root test, co-integration, and CS-ARDL model were used. The research findings revealed that renewable energy induces a short-term influence on CO2 emissions. In contrast, renewable energy and financial development, when moderated by institutional quality and globalisation, have posed long-term influences on CO2 emissions. Our empirical research offers fresh insights to policymakers and governments, aiding in the development policies that safeguard environmental quality while simultaneously achieving sustainable economic objectives. This study suggests the significance of enacting adequate policies for endorsing the usage of renewable energy and the minimisation of CO2 emissions for sustainable development.

2 October 2025 in Inverge Journal of Social Sciences
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
YMYasir Mahmood
Yasir Mahmood
MAMuhammad Ali
Muhammad Ali
AHAhmed
Ahmed
TMTufail Muhammad
Tufail Muhammad
This study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in Pakistan from 1990 to 2023. It investigates the long- and short-run impacts of government expenditure, taxation, and fiscal deficits on the nation's escalating debt burden. Employing a quantitative research design and advanced econometric techniques, including the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research utilizes robust time-series data from the State Bank of Pakistan, World Bank, and IMF. The findings reveal that persistent fiscal deficits are the primary driver of public debt accumulation, exhibiting a strong positive correlation. Furthermore, while tax revenue enhancements demonstrate a limited stabilizing effect in the short run, their role in ensuring long-term debt sustainability is critical. The analysis identifies a structural imbalance, with recurrent government expenditure, particularly on debt-servicing and non-developmental sectors, crowding out productive investment and exacerbating fiscal fragility. The study concludes that Pakistan's fiscal policy has historically prioritized short-term political and economic objectives, inadvertently fuelling a debt-deficit spiral and compromising long-term macroeconomic stability. Consequently, the research strongly advocates for deep-rooted structural reforms, including a significant broadening of the tax base, strategic rationalization of public spending towards development projects, and the institutionalization of fiscal discipline through enhanced governance and transparency. These measures are imperative to break the cycle of indebtedness and secure a trajectory of sustainable and inclusive economic growth. References Ahmad, M. H., & Abbas, Q. (2022). Fiscal deficit and public debt sustainability in Pakistan: Evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(3), 1473–1492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09371-0 Ahmed, F., & Khan, M. A. (2021). Fiscal policy, debt dynamics, and economic growth: Evidence from developing economies. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(6), 1125–1142. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2020-0074 Ahmed, S., & Malik, R. (2020). Revenue mobilization and debt sustainability: A comparative analysis of South Asian economies. South Asian Journal of Economic Policy, 5(2), 75–92. Ali, M., & Khan, T. (2019). Fiscal sustainability and the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Economic Review, 42(1), 55–70. Anwar, H., & Qasim, A. (2020). External borrowing and fiscal sustainability in Pakistan: New insights from ARDL modeling. International Journal of Development Studies, 15(3), 145–160. Anwar, S., & Shah, F. (2021). Economic growth and debt sustainability: Evidence from Asian emerging economies. Asian Economic Review, 63(2), 215–233. Arsh, S., Sarwar, J., & Iftikhar, S. (2021). An empirical analysis of short run and long run association between debt servicing and external debt in Pakistan. Bulletin of Business and Economics. Baig, D., Qamri, G. M., Hassan, A., Khan, Q. R., & Akbar, A. (2024). Presence of Debt Overhung Effect in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence with ARDL Model. Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 12(1), 1911. Butt, H., & Awan, K. (2021). The role of external debt in shaping fiscal vulnerabilities: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of International Finance, 29(4), 390–406. Butt, S., & Hassan, A. (2020). Tax system inefficiencies and fiscal vulnerability: The case of Pakistan. Review of Public Finance, 12(2), 101–118. Farooq, I., Akram, M., Khan, C., & Shah, S. R. A. (2022). Disaggregated Components of Public Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan. Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies. https://doi.org/10.26710/jbsee.v8i3.1975 Farooq, N., & Akram, S. (2019). Fiscal deficits and debt accumulation in Pakistan: A time series perspective. Pakistan Development Journal, 58(4), 321–339. Hanif, M. N., & Arby, M. F. (2021). Public debt dynamics and fiscal sustainability in Pakistan. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 24(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2019.1592756 Hassan, I., & Rauf, S. (2020). Fiscal discipline and debt sustainability: Policy lessons from Pakistan. Journal of Fiscal Studies, 11(1), 67–82. Hussain, A., & Latif, S. (2019). Fiscal policy, external debt, and macroeconomic instability: Evidence from Pakistan. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 7(3), 113–128. Hussain, F., & Tariq, M. (2020). Economic growth and debt reduction: Evidence from Pakistan. Bulletin of Economic Research, 72(2), 145–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12245 Hussain, T., Mustafa, A. R. U., Makhdum, M. I., & Kaleem Ullah. (2022). Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit and Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study of Pakistan. Bulletin of Business and Economics, 11(2), 74-83. Iqbal, J., & Zahid, S. (2020). Does fiscal policy influence economic growth? Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1767850. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1767850 Iqbal, Z., & Ahmad, K. (2021). Public spending and debt dynamics in resource-constrained economies: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(1), 89–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.11.003 Javed, A., & Arif, B. (2020). Fiscal expansion, debt accumulation, and growth trade-offs: Evidence from Pakistan. Asian Economic Journal, 34(1), 45–62. Javed, S., & Karim, A. (2019). Taxation, compliance, and fiscal vulnerability in developing countries: Insights from Pakistan. International Journal of Public Administration, 42(7), 567–578. https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2018.1440735 Javed, U., & Rehman, M. (2020). Fiscal sustainability and econometric modeling: A study on Pakistan’s debt dynamics. Applied Economics and Policy, 29(2), 210–225. Khalid, A., & Munir, H. (2021). Growth volatility and debt sustainability...