The spatially heterogeneous nature and geographical scale of surface urban heat island (SUHI) driving mechanisms remain largely unknown, as most previous studies have focused solely on their global performance and impact strength. This paper analyzes diurnal and nocturnal SUHIs in China based on the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model for 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018. Compared to results obtained using the ordinary least square (OLS) model, the MGWR model has a lower corrected Akaike information criterion value and significantly improves the model’s coefficient of determination (OLS: 0.087–0.666, MGWR: 0.616–0.894). The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and nighttime light (NTL) are the most critical drivers of daytime and nighttime SUHIs, respectively. In terms of model bandwidth, population and Δfine particulate matter are typically global variables, while ΔNDVI, intercept (i.e., spatial context), and NTL are local variables. The nighttime coefficient of ΔNDVI is significantly negative in the more economically developed southern coastal region, while it is significantly positive in northwestern China. Our study not only improves the understanding of the complex drivers of SUHIs from a multiscale perspective but also provides a basis for urban heat island mitigation by more precisely identifying the heterogeneity of drivers.
Air pollution levels tend to be higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas, and this air pollution has a negative effect on human health. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of urban-rural air pollution differences and the determinants of these differences remain unclear. Here, we calculate the Urban Air Pollution Island (UAPI) intensity for PM2.5 and PM10 on a monthly, seasonal, and annual scale for 2273 cities in China from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we analyze the influence of urban characteristics using a combined approach of a two-way fixed effects model and a spatial Durbin model. Results show a strong downward trend in the UAPI intensity since 2013, with reductions ranging from 42 % to 61 % until 2020, for both pollutants and in summer as well as winter. Consistently, the proportion of the cities experiencing the UAPI phenomenon decreased from 94.5 % to 77.3 % for both PM2.5 and PM10. We find a significant influence of urban morphology on UAPI. Specifically, urban sprawl, polycentric development, and an increase in urban green spaces are associated with a reduction in UAPI, while dense urban areas intensify it. Our study also reveals a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between stages of economic development and UAPI. Moreover, economic development and air pollution itself show spillover effects that oppose their direct impacts. These results suggest that urban and regional planning and more ambitious climate change mitigation policies could be more effective strategies for mitigating air pollution in cities than end-of-pipe control.
12 December 2020 in Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
As an important public travel mode, urban rail transit has the characteristics of crowded passengers and closed operation. Safe management of urban rail transit is an important research topic that attracted attention in recent years. This article proposes a decision analysis method based on case-based reasoning, which aims to solve the emergency response problems for the prevention and control of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in urban rail transit. In this method, first, the historical cases are extracted and filtered by calculating the similarity between the target case and the historical case. A set of similar historical cases is constructed by setting the similarity threshold in advance. Second, comprehensive utility value of emergency response of each similar case is calculated referring to the utility evaluation of emergency response effect and response cost of each similar historical case. On this basis, the emergency plan of the target case is generated by selecting the emergency plans of the similar historical cases corresponding to the maximum comprehensive utility values of the emergency responses. Finally, with the emergency responses of COVID-19 in Tianjin rail transit as the background, this paper explains the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method within a case study.
Understanding the mechanisms, intensity, and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the impacts of urbanization and eco-environmental quality on carbon storage is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study constructed a multiscale spatio-temporal analysis framework using multi-source remote sensing data, the InVEST model, and the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. Then, the effects of multiple factors on regional carbon storage were assessed in an empirical study involving 199 counties in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The results showed that the carbon storage loss in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2018 was 58.87 Tg C, with an annual relative loss rate of 0.16%. The MGWR model used in this study explained more than 98% of the spatial variation in regional carbon storage. In contrast, the impacts of various urbanization and eco-environmental indicators on regional carbon storage varied with the spatial and temporal variation. Overall, urban land structure and vegetation growth strongly influenced regional carbon storage resulting from urbanization and eco-environmental quality, respectively. In addition, based on an analysis of spatial context, MGWR suggests that the northwestern mountains in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have a greater potential to store more carbon than the other regions. This study also details the impact of future sustainable land use on regional carbon storage. Our findings can provide a scientific reference for formulating relevant carbon storage conservation policies.
Urban rail transit project is a kind of typical operating public project. Adopting the PPP model can alleviate local financial pressure and improve capital use efficiency. However, many existing urban rail transit PPP projects have fallen into the dilemma of cost overrun, schedule delay, and poor product quality. The lack of reasonable project performance evaluation is considered as an important cause. This research first clarifies the meaning and characteristics of project performance evaluation by comparing and analyzing several basic concepts and relationships. Secondly, an operation performance evaluation system based on urban rail transit PPP project of a three party is constructed from a multistakeholder perspective. Finally, the best worst method and large‐scale group evaluation technology are used based on the comparison of multistakeholder evaluation application scenarios and evaluation methods. A quantitative model is constructed to evaluate the operating performance of urban rail transit PPP projects and is tested and explained by a specific case study. Most current studies generally focus on the earlier stage of project performance, and this article mainly discusses and researches the operation performance of PPP projects. There, suggestions are provided for the operation performance evaluation theory and urban rail transit PPP project practices. This article focuses on the operation performance evaluation of PPP projects.
27 May 2021 in Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Fire emergency response of urban rail transit is a complex multiattribute risk decision-making problem. In emergency response analysis, it is necessary to consider the psychological behaviors of decision-makers such as reference dependence, loss aversion, and judge distortion. Applying different emergency plans can intervene the development and evolution of urban rail emergency fire and may even result in different levels of casualties and property losses. For this situation, this paper proposes an emergency response decision-making method based on prospect theory. First, according to the prospect theory, this paper quantitatively describes the comprehensive psychological perception of decision-makers for casualties and property losses in different situations. Then, the psychological perception of decision-makers for the important levels of different situations is calculated. Third, according to the situation comprehensive values, situation weights, and the cost inputs of emergency plans, the comprehensive prospect values of each emergency plan are calculated, and the fire emergency plans can be ranked based on comprehensive prospect value. At last, the fire emergency disposal of Tianjin rail transportation line 3 is considered as the background in this paper. The feasibility and effectiveness of the purposed method is illustrated through the case study.