Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies—besides direct intervention in disease cases—should also be further investigated. We explored the consequences of climate change for the spread of leishmaniasis in North America. We modeled the distribution of two sand fly vector and four rodent reservoir species found in northern México and the southern United States. Models were based on occurrence data and environmental and topographic layers. Successful models were projected to 2020, 2050, and 2080 using an extreme (A2) and a conservative (B2) future climate scenario. We predicted potential range shifts of vector and reservoir species varying assumptions about dispersal ability and capacity to persist in habitats with different degrees of ecological suitability. Even with the most conservative assumptions the distributions of both vector and reservoir species expand northwards, potentially reaching as far as southern Canada in the east. Assuming that at least one vector and one reservoir species must be present for a parasite cycle, the extent of this shift is predicted to be controlled by the availability of suitable habitat for sand fly vector species. Finally, we computed the human population potentially exposed to leishmaniasis because of these range shifts. Even in the most optimistic scenario we found that twice as many individuals could be exposed to leishmaniasis in North America in 2080 compared to today.

Networks offer a powerful tool for understanding and visualizing inter-species ecological and evolutionary interactions. Previously considered examples, such as trophic networks, are just representations of experimentally observed direct interactions. However, species interactions are so rich and complex it is not feasible to directly observe more than a small fraction. In this paper, using data mining techniques, we show how potential interactions can be inferred from geographic data, rather than by direct observation. An important application area for this methodology is that of emerging diseases, where, often, little is known about inter-species interactions, such as between vectors and reservoirs. Here, we show how using geographic data, biotic interaction networks that model statistical dependencies between species distributions can be used to infer and understand inter-species interactions. Furthermore, we show how such networks can be used to build prediction models. For example, for predicting the most important reservoirs of a disease, or the degree of disease risk associated with a geographical area. We illustrate the general methodology by considering an important emerging disease - Leishmaniasis. This data mining methodology allows for the use of geographic data to construct inferential biotic interaction networks which can then be used to build prediction models with a wide range of applications in ecology, biodiversity and emerging diseases.

Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana causes cutaneous leishmaniasis, an endemic zoonosis affecting a growing number of patients in the southeastern states of Mexico. Some foci are found in shade-grown cocoa and coffee plantations, or near perennial forests that provide rich breeding grounds for the sand fly vectors, but also harbor a variety of bat species that live off the abundant fruits provided by these shade-giving trees. The close proximity between sand flies and bats makes their interaction feasible, yet bats infected with Leishmania (L.) mexicana have not been reported. Here we analyzed 420 bats from six states of Mexico that had reported patients with leishmaniasis. Tissues of bats, including skin, heart, liver and/or spleen were screened by PCR for Leishmania (L.) mexicana DNA. We found that 41 bats (9.77%), belonging to 13 species, showed positive PCR results in various tissues. The infected tissues showed no evidence of macroscopic lesions. Of the infected bats, 12 species were frugivorous, insectivorous or nectarivorous, and only one species was sanguivorous (Desmodus rotundus), and most of them belonged to the family Phyllostomidae. The eco-region where most of the infected bats were caught is the Gulf Coastal Plain of Chiapas and Tabasco. Through experimental infections of two Tadarida brasiliensis bats in captivity, we show that this species can harbor viable, infective Leishmania (L.) mexicana parasites that are capable of infecting BALB/c mice. We conclude that various species of bats belonging to the family Phyllostomidae are possible reservoir hosts for Leishmania (L.) mexicana, if it can be shown that such bats are infective for the sand fly vector. Further studies are needed to determine how these bats become infected, how long the parasite remains viable inside these potential hosts and whether they are infective to sand flies to fully evaluate their impact on disease epidemiology. Leishmaniasis is endemic in southeastern Mexico, where Leishmania (L.) mexicana is the principle parasite species causing disease in humans. Previous studies using methodology for inferring potential biotic interactions between species had shown a high prevalence of bat species as potential hosts for Leishmania, yet bats have not been identified as hosts in Mexico. Motivated by these predictions, we currently analyze whether bats are infected with Leishmania (L.) mexicana and to what extent they serve as hosts for this parasite. We analyzed 420 bats from six states, and through PCR analysis of skin, heart, liver and/or spleen we found that 41 bats (9.77%) of 13 different bat species were infected. Most of the infected bats were netted in an eco-region characterized by plantations grown beneath shade-providing fruit trees that favors breeding conditions for the sand fly vectors and brings them in close proximity with frugivorous, insectivorous or nectarivorous bats. None of the infected bat tissues showed macroscopic lesions. Through artificial infections, we were also able to show that Leishmania (L.) mexicana remains viable and infective after passage through one species of bat. We conclude that various species of bats belonging to the family Phyllostomidae are possible reservoir hosts of Leishmania (L.) mexicana.

La identificación y el análisis de gremios ecológicos han sido fundamentales para entender los procesosque determinan la estructura y organización de las comunidades. Sin embargo, revisando los estudios que hanclasificado las especies en gremios, encontramos que tales clasificaciones están basadas en diferentes criterios;como consecuencia, una especie puede tener varias designaciones gremiales, limitando su precisión y aplicabilidad.En este trabajo proponemos un esquema de clasificación en gremios tróficos como primer paso para establecer unaterminología común. Para ello, se consideraron 1 502 especies de aves y mamíferos distribuidos en América del Norte(México, EUA y Canadá).