The delineation of management zones is one of the ways to enable the spatially differentiated management of plots using precision agriculture tools. Over the years, the spatial variability of data collected from soil and plant sampling started to be replaced by data collected by proximal and orbital sensors. As a result, the variety and volume of data have increased considerably, making it necessary to use advanced computational tools, such as machine learning, for data analysis and decision-making support. This paper presents a methodology used to establish management zones (MZ) in precision agriculture by analyzing data obtained from soil sampling, proximal sensors and orbital sensors, in experiments carried out in four plots featuring soybean–cotton and soybean–corn crops, in Mato Grosso and Paraná states, Brazil. Four procedures were evaluated, using different input data sets for the MZ delineation: (I) soil attributes, including clay content, apparent electrical conductivity or fertility, along with elevation, yield maps and vegetation indices (VIs) captured during the peak crop biomass period; (II) soil attributes in conjunction with VIs demonstrating strong correlations; (III) solely VIs exhibiting robust correlation with soil attributes and yield; (IV) VIs selected via random forests to identify the importance of the variable for estimating yield. The results showed that the VIs derived from satellite images could effectively replace other types of data. For plots where the natural spatial variability can be easily identified, all procedures favor obtaining MZ maps that allow reductions of 40% to 70% in yield variance, justifying their use. On the other hand, in plots with low natural spatial variability and that do not have reliable yield maps, different data sets used as input do not help in obtaining feasible MZ maps. For areas where anthropogenic activities with spatially differentiated treatment are already present, the exclusive use of VIs for the delineation of MZs must be carried out with reservations.

Yield maps from combine harvesters are essential in precision agriculture for capturing within-field variability and guiding variable-rate input management. However, in large-scale systems such as those in the Brazilian Cerrado, these maps are often inconsistent due to calibration errors, use of multiple harvesters, and complex post-processing. Orbital remote sensing offers an alternative by providing consistent vegetation index (VI) data for crop monitoring and yield estimation. This study developed regression models relating Sentinel-2 VIs (EVI, TVI, NDVI, and NDRE) to cotton yield data obtained from combine harvesters across 30 commercial plots in Mato Grosso, Brazil, over six cropping seasons (2019–2024), totaling 76 plot-season datasets. Vegetation indices were grouped into 15-day intervals based on days after sowing, and a logistic growth function was applied in the regression modeling. Model performance evaluated using 15 independent plot-seasons showed good pixel-level accuracy, with RMSE of 0.695 t ha⁻¹ and R² of 0.78, with EVI performing slightly better. At the plot scale, mean yield predictions across all datasets achieved an RMSE of 0.41 t ha⁻¹, reflecting the higher reliability of module-based yield measurements. These results demonstrate the potential of Sentinel-2 VIs combined with logistic regression to predict cotton yields in the Cerrado, complementing or replacing harvester-based monitoring.

This study develops a practical, on-farm methodology for optimizing cotton cultivation through Variable Rate Seeding (VRS), utilizing existing farm data and remote sensing, while minimizing operational interference. The methodology involved an experimental design across five rainfed cotton fields on a Brazilian commercial farm, testing four seeding rates (90%, 100%, 110%, 120%) within grid cells using a 4 × 4 Latin square design. Management zones (MZs) were defined using existing soil clay content and elevation data, augmented by twelve vegetation indices from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and K-Means clustering. Statistical analysis evaluated plant population density’s effect on cotton yield and its association with MZs. For the 2023/2024 season, results showed no positive yield response to increasing plant density above field averages, with negative responses in many plots (e.g., 84% in Field A), suggesting potential gains from reducing rates. The association between population density effect classes and MZs was highly significant with moderate to relatively strong Cramer’s V values (up to 0.47), indicating MZs effectively distinguished response areas. Lower clay content consistently correlated with yield losses at higher densities. This work empowers farm managers to conduct their own site-specific experimentation for optimal seed populations, enhancing precision agriculture and resource efficiency.