This paper aims to develop a model for calculating the ball load of the thin-walled flexible bearing (FB) in a harmonic drive under various external torque conditions. The effect of the flexspline (FS) on the FB ball load is considered, and the equivalent ring is improved to calculate the ball load of the FB. Then, the accuracy of the proposed model in calculating the ball load is verified using a finite element analysis model. Finally, a fitting formula is obtained to rapidly evaluate the FB ball load via the geometrical parameters of the FB and the FS under various external torques. The results show that the FB ball load is mainly affected by the FB maximum radial deformation under low external torque. When subjected to heavy external torque, the maximum ball load is mainly affected by the FS’s geometric parameters.