The Ili River originates in the mountains of Xinjiang, China, and flows across an increasingly arid landscape before terminating in Kazakhstan’s Lake Balkhash, which has no outlet to the ocean. The river has been extensively impounded and diverted over the past half century to produce hydroelectric power and food on irrigated land. Water withdrawals are increasing to the extent that they are beginning to threaten the ecosystem, just as it is becoming stressed by altered inflows as glaciers retreat and disappear. If the Ili River ecosystem is to be preserved, it is crucial that we thoroughly understand the spatial and temporal nuances of the interrelationships between water, energy, and food—and the vulnerability of these components to climate change. The ecosystem has all of the characteristics of a classically-defined “wicked problem”, and so it warrants treatment as a complex and dynamic challenge subject to changing assumptions, unexpected consequences, and strong social and economic overtones. Research should thus focus not just on new knowledge about the water, energy, or food component, but on advancing our understanding of the ecosystem as a whole. This will require the participation of interdisciplinary teams of researchers with both tacit and specialized knowledge.

Central Asia’s arid lowland ecosystems are dependent on water that originates in nearby mountains and is carried by rivers to terminal lakes and freshwater seas with no outlets to the ocean. Fish traditionally thrived in these waterways, but they have become increasingly jeopardized by water impoundment and diversion for energy and crop production. Fish capture in the five new Central Asian republics consequently entered a period of long decline, a trend that was accelerated by removal of the centralized controls imposed by the former Soviet Union. Production levels have recovered during the past decade, but only in some countries. A similar trend is evident with aquaculture, which reached its lowest production levels in 2003–2008 but now is partially recovering. In both cases, progress is most evident in water-deficient Uzbekistan. Fish capture in Kazakhstan’s Ili River ecosystem, including Kapchagay Reservoir and Lake Balkhash, is now dropping precipitously. Effects on the lake’s fisheries have been magnified by the disproportionate rates of disappearance of valuable carp and pike-perch. The interrelationships between water, energy, and food underlie these threats to Central Asia’s fish and define a classic “wicked problem” that must be addressed regionally with explicit attention given to fish as important components of the ecosystem. Recent developments, although not all positive, give reason for cautious optimism that the region’s fisheries and aquaculture industries can be stabilized.

Although Eurasia’s Caspian basin once supported the world’s richest and most diverse complex of sturgeon species, recent human activities have decimated populations of these ecologically and economically important fish. All five anadromous Caspian sturgeon species are critically endangered, and the potamodromous sterlet is also threatened. The precipitous decline of these species is due to a combination of factors that includes illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing; destruction of feeding and spawning habitat; water pollution; and the environmental consequences of climate change. International efforts are currently underway to re-establish sustained naturally reproducing sturgeon populations in the basin. Here, we update and review the status of sturgeon in the Caspian Sea with emphasis on the northern basin and the inflowing Volga and Ural rivers. We then focus on efforts to restore sturgeon in the Ural, which originates in Russia and flows through Kazakhstan before entering the Caspian Sea. With nearly ideal hydrological conditions for sturgeon, the Ural is the basin’s sole remaining river that allows migrating sturgeon unimpeded access to potentially productive spawning grounds. The challenge of re-establishing sturgeon in the Ural River exhibits the classical characteristics of wicked problems: ambiguous definitions, changing assumptions and unanticipated consequences, tradeoffs and economic dependencies, an incomplete and contradictory knowledge base, and no straightforward pathway toward a final solution. This challenge is examined here for the first time from the perspective of its wicked dynamics, with consideration given to approaches that have proven effective elsewhere in resolving wicked environmental problems.

Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic that is now independent, lies near the center of arid Eurasia. Its sparse hydrographic network includes a small number of large rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, many ponds and smaller streams, as well as littoral zones bordering the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea. A diverse fisheries sector, initially based on wild fish capture and later including aquaculture, developed in these waters during the Soviet era, when animal agriculture was unable to meet the protein needs of Soviet citizens. The sector, which was originally centered on the Volga–Caspian basin, was tightly managed by Moscow and benefitted from coordinated investments in research, infrastructure, and human resources, as well as policies to increase the consumption of fish products. Independence in 1991 administered a political and economic shock that disrupted these relationships. Kazakhstan’s wild fish harvests plummeted by more than two-thirds, and aquaculture collapsed to just 3% of its previous level. Per capita consumption of fish products also declined, as did processing capacity. Favorable recent policies to define fishing rights, incentivize investments, prevent illegal fishing, and make stocking more effective have helped to reverse these trends and stabilize the sector. Continued recovery will require additional steps to manage water resources sustainably, prioritize the use of water for fish habitats, and minimize the effects of climate change. This comprehensive assessment of Kazakhstan’s fisheries sector over the past century provides the basis to understand how long-term dynamic interactions of the environment with the political economy influence fisheries in Eurasia’s largest country.