Applying the daily ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016, we found that widespread cold (warm) wintertime extreme events in Northern Europe occurred most frequently in winter 1984–1985 (2006–2007). These events often persisted for multiple days, and their primary drivers were the pattern of atmospheric large-scale circulation, the direction of surface wind and the downward longwave radiation. Widespread cold extremes were favoured by the Scandinavian Pattern and Ural Blocking, associated with advection of continental air-masses from the east, clear skies and negative anomalies in downward longwave radiation. In the case of widespread warm extremes, a centre of low pressure was typically located over the Barents Sea and a centre of high pressure over Central Europe, which caused south-westerly winds to dominate over Northern Europe, bringing warm, cloudy air masses to Northern Europe. Applying Self-Organizing Maps, we found out that thermodynamic processes explained 80% (64%) of the decreasing (increasing) trend in the occurrence of extreme cold (warm) events. The trends were due to a combined effect of climate warming and internal variability of the system. Changes in cases with a high-pressure centre over Iceland were important for the decreased occurrence of cold extremes over Northern Europe, with contribution from increasing downward long-wave radiation and south-westerly winds. The largest contribution to the increased occurrence of widespread warm extremes originated from warming and increased occurrence of the Icelandic low.
23 March 2017 in International Journal of Climatology
This study examines the trends and interannual variability of extreme precipitation in Antarctica, using six decades (1963–2023) of daily precipitation data from Russia’s Novolazarevskaya Station in East Antarctica. The results reveal declining trends in both the annual number of extreme precipitation days and the total amount of extreme precipitation, as well as a decreasing ratio of extreme to total annual precipitation. These trends are linked to changes in northward water vapor flux and enhanced downward atmospheric motion. The synoptic pattern driving extreme precipitation events is characterized by a dipole of negative and positive height anomalies to the west and east of the station, respectively, which directs southward water vapor flux into the region. Interannual variability in extreme precipitation days shows a significant correlation with the Niño 3.4 index during the austral winter semester (May–October). This relationship, weak before 1992, strengthened significantly afterward due to shifting wave patterns induced by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. These findings shed light on how large-scale atmospheric circulation and tropical-extratropical teleconnections shape Antarctic precipitation patterns, with potential implications for ice sheet stability and regional climate variability.