On 10 May 2024 at 17 h:07 UTC, the simultaneous arrival of several solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) generated the strongest geomagnetic storm of the last twenty years, with a minimum Dst = −412 nT, usually referred to as the Mother’s Day event. On 10 October 2024, the second strongest event of solar cycle 25 appeared with a Dst = −335 nT, preceded on 8 October by an event with a Dst = −153 nT. In the present work, with measurements of the vertical total electron content and with ionosonde observations from Europe, USA, and South Korea, we show that the ionization of the upper atmosphere shortly increased at the arrival of the CME for these different events, followed by a fast decrease at all latitudes. The ionization remained very low for more than a full day. While the recovery started at the beginning of the second day after the onset for both events in October, the sudden recovery in the middle of the second day on 12 May is much more unusual. The analysis of the observations at different latitudes and longitudes shows that the causes of the ionization variations during the superstorms were mainly due to strong perturbations in the ionospheric F layer, amplified by the plasmasphere’s influence on the vertical total electron content (VTEC). The erosion of the plasmasphere during these two strong events led to a plasmapause located at exceptionally low radial distances smaller than 2 Re (Earth’s radii) in the post-midnight sector and a rotating plume in the afternoon–dusk sector clearly visible in the BSPM plasmasphere model. It took several days after the storms to recover normal ionization rates.

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, a link between all the communities involved in Space Weather and in Space Climate

This paper presents a new empirical model for predicting the daily mean ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) at a given latitude from only one solar index as input. For the development of the model we take advantage of the availability of 15 years of global GNSS-based TEC information and solar indices (Sunspot Number, F10.7 and derived F10.7P) including the 23rd solar cycle. Among all the tests, our preferred ionospheric climatological model to predict daily mean TEC presents yearly median differences with observed values of 1.4 ± 0.9 TECu (11.5 ± 2.9% for the relative differences) with no significant degradation during the different phases of the solar cycle. To realize this empirical model we used a least-square adjustment with (1) a combination of linear, annual and semi-annual terms between the TEC and F10.7P; (2) a discretization with respect to the phases of the solar cycle. The main differences between the modelled and the observed TEC occur during identified geomagnetic storms: the maximum differences (−3.2 ± 1.5 TECu) and relative differences (−19.6 ± 15.0%) occur one day after the storm onset. The typical time to retrieve the pre-storm conditions is 3–4 days after the onset. These results show a global picture of the effect of extreme Space Weather events on the Earth’s upper atmosphere.

The present study examines the negative ionospheric response over Europe during two geomagnetic storms on 10–13 May 2024, known as the Mother’s Day geomagnetic superstorm. The first storm, with a peak SYM-H value of −436 nT, occurred in the interval 10–11 May, while the second, less intense storm (SYM-H~−103 nT), followed in the interval 12–13 May. Using data from four European locations, temporal and spatial variations in ionospheric parameters (TEC, foF2, and hmF2) were analyzed to investigate the morphology of the strong negative response. Sharp electron density (Ne) depletion is associated with the equatorward displacement of the Midlatitude Ionospheric Trough (MIT), confirmed by Swarm satellite data. A key finding was the absence of foF2 and hmF2 values over all ionosonde stations during the recovery phase of the storms, likely due to the coupling between the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) crests and the auroral ionosphere influenced by the intense uplift of the F layer. Relevant distinct features such as Large-scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (LSTID) signatures and Spread F were also noted, particularly during the initial and main phase of the first storm over high midlatitude regions. Regional effects varied, with high European midlatitudes exhibiting different features compared to lower European latitude areas.